据7月20日Hart Energy报道，欧佩克+从8月开始提高原油产量的协议，一直是该组织此前陷入僵局的最有可能的结果，这应该足以结束油价每桶100美元的市场预期，至少目前看来如此。
7月18日，欧佩克+成员国的部长们同意从8月到12月将产量增加40万桶/天，到今年年底，全球供应量将增加200万桶/天。
此外，包括欧佩克产油国和俄罗斯等盟友在内，该组织同意从2022年5月起进行新的产量分配，解决了由阿联酋引发的争端，此前，阿联酋希望提高其产量配额基准。
阿联酋的基准产量将从5月份开始增加约33.2万桶/天，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯将分别增加50万桶/天，伊拉克和科威特将分别增加15万桶/天。
欧佩克+还计划在2022年9月之前结束所有的产量限制，但这将取决于届时全球石油市场的状况。
随着僵局的解决，越来越多的原油回归全球供应，市场面临的问题变得简单，但仍难以回答。
供应的增加是否会压倒需求的复苏，从而导致原油价格下跌?
乐观的说法仍然是，世界经济正在从疫情中复苏，随着人们接种疫苗，越来越多的国家重新开放。
悲观的说法是，这一过程可能正在发生，但发生的速度不够快，而且扩散不均匀，北美和欧洲复苏更快，亚洲和非洲和南美的发展中国家则落后。
到目前为止，来自原油需求的证据似乎倾向于悲观的说法，尤其是在亚洲主要的石油进口地区。
据Refinitiv Oil Research估计，亚洲7月份原油进口量为2259万桶/天，低于6月份的2378万桶/天和5月份的2304万桶/天。
虽然随着月底的临近，这一估计数字可能会被调高，但初步证据表明，亚洲的原油需求远未上升。
7月份的疲软主要是由于印度需求的下降。Refinitiv预测这个南亚国家的原油进口量将从6月份的414万桶/天下降到333万桶/天。
油价下跌在很大程度上可归因于印度最近几个月新冠病毒的爆发，这降低了燃料需求，因为为了阻止疾病的传播，部分经济部门被封锁了。
在亚洲前四大石油进口国中，预计7月份进口原油量将超过6月份，只有韩国可能超过日本，成为该地区第三大石油进口国，即便如此，涨幅也相对较小，7月份为317万桶/天，而上月为276万桶/天。
价格脱节
在亚洲，全球基准布伦特(Brent)等原油期货价格与中东主要出口地区售出的实物原油价格之间也存在某种脱节。
布伦特-迪拜掉期交易就是这样一个衡量指标，它衡量布伦特原油期货和迪拜实物原油之间的价差。
7月16日，布伦特原油期货相对于迪拜掉期的溢价收于相对较宽的3.79美元/桶，距离7月7日创下的4.38美元/桶的近期高点不远，这是2018年4月以来的最高水平。
实际上，这意味着布伦特原油以及安哥拉和尼日利亚等以布伦特原油定价的实物原油，与中东原油相比，溢价处于历史高位。
随着欧佩克+协议的达成，期货市场的投资者很可能将被迫面对这样一个现实，即全球大部分现货原油需求依然疲软，且远低于疫情前的水平。
7月19日，布伦特原油期货在亚洲早盘交易中有所下跌，最低跌至72.60美元/桶，较7月16日收盘下跌1.3%。
欧佩克+协议不一定会终结对石油需求的乐观看法，但它确实改变了供应因素，也意味着一些投资银行和市场参与者对未来几个月油价达到100美元的预测不太可能成为现实。
王佳晶 摘译自 Hart Energy
原文如下：
Opinion: OPEC+ Deal Should End $100 Oil Predictions
The OPEC+ deal to boost crude oil output from August was always the most likely outcome to the producer group’s earlier impasse, and it should be enough to end market talk of $100 oil, at least for now.
OPEC+ ministers agreed on July 18 to boost production by 400,000 bbl/d from August to December, adding a total of 2 million bbl/d to global supply by the end of the year.
Additionally the group, which includes OPEC and allies such as Russia, agreed to new production allocations from May 2022, resolving the dispute sparked by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which had wanted the baseline for its output quota raised.
The UAE will see its baseline gain by about 332,000 bbl/d from May, while Saudi Arabia and Russia will enjoy increases of 500,000 bbl/d each, with Iraq and Kuwait getting jumps of 150,000 bbl/d each.
OPEC+ also plans to end all output restrictions by September 2022, but this will depend on the state of the global oil market around that time.
With the impasse resolved, and more crude returning to global supply, the question for the market is now simple, but difficult to answer.
Will the increase in supply overwhelm the recovery in demand, leading to a lower crude price?
The bullish narrative remains that the world economy is recovering from the coronavirus pandemic, with more countries opening back up as populations receive vaccines against COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
The bearish narrative is that this process may be happening, but it isn't happening fast enough and is unevenly spread, with North America and Europe recovering faster and Asia and the developing nations of Africa and South America lagging.
So far the evidence from crude oil demand appears to favor the bearish narrative, especially in the top oil-importing region of Asia.
Asia’s crude imports for July are estimated at 22.59 million bbl/d by Refinitiv Oil Research, which is down from 23.78 million bbl/d in June and 23.04 million bbl/d in May.
While this estimate may be revised higher as the end of the month approaches, it is early evidence that crude oil demand is far from an upward trajectory in Asia.
July’s weakness is largely down to falling demand in India, with Refinitiv forecasting the South Asian nation will bring in 3.33 million bbl/d, down from June’s 4.14 million bbl/d.
The drop can largely be ascribed to India's renewed coronavirus outbreak in recent months, which cut fuel demand as parts of the economy were locked down in a bid to halt the spread of the disease.
Among the top four importers in Asia, only South Korea, which is likely to overtake Japan as the number three oil buyer in the region, is predicted to bring in more crude in July than in June, and even then the gain is relatively small, 3.17 million in July compared with 2.76 million for the prior month.
Price Discord
There is also something of a disconnect in Asia between prices for paper crude futures, such as global benchmark Brent and physical cargoes sold out of the main exporting region of the Middle East.
One such measure is the Brent-Dubai exchange for swaps, which measures the gap between Brent futures and physical crude in Dubai.
The premium of Brent futures over Dubai swaps ended at a relatively wide $3.79/bbl on July 16, not far off the recent peak of $4.38 on July 7, which was the highest since April 2018.
In effect this means that paper Brent, and the physical crudes priced off it such as those from Angola and Nigeria, are trading at a historically high premium to cargoes from the Middle East.
With the OPEC+ deal now in place, it's likely that investors in the paper market will be forced to confront the reality that for much of the world physical crude demand remains soft, and well below pre-pandemic levels.
Brent futures lost some ground in early Asian trade on July 19, dropping as low as $72.60/bbl, down 1.3% from the close on July 16.
The OPEC+ agreement doesn’t necessarily end the bullish case for oil demand, but it does alter the supply part of the equation, and it means predictions of $100 oil in coming months, made by some investment banks and market participants, are less likely to materialize.
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