据油价网7月16日消息称，国家能源署周四表示，在经历了 2020 年的低迷之后，今年全球电力需求增长如此之快，以至于即使可再生能源发电的持续强劲增长也不足以满足这一需求，并警告称煤炭发电量将激增并威胁减排努力。
IEA在周四公布的半年度电力市场报告中称，今年全球电力需求预计将比 2020 年的水平猛增 5%，而2020年受疫情影响，电力消耗下降约1%。
该机构还表示，由于全球经济复苏，全球电力需求预计在2022年还将增长4%。
IEA 表示，尽管可再生能源发电势头强劲，但仅凭可再生能源还远远无法满足全球不断增长的电力需求。这意味着近一半的电力需求增长将由化石燃料发电来满足，尤其是煤。
IEA表示，亚太地区，尤其是中国和印度，将成为电力需求增长的最大贡献者。
根据该机构的估计，化石燃料发电今年将满足45%的新增需求，明年将满足40%的新增需求，而核能将填补全球电力需求增长的剩余部分。因此，2019年和2020年都有所下降的电力行业的碳排放预计将在2021年上升3.5%，2022年上升2.5%，明年达到历史最高水平。
尽管可再生能源在增长，但绿色能源发电量的年增长仅在2019年和2020年超过了电力需求的增长，但这是由于这两年的需求非常缓慢或下降。IEA表示，这表明“可再生能源超过电力行业其它领域尚未成为新常态。”
IEA能源市场和安全事务主任Keisuke Sadamori说：“可再生能源在世界许多地区的增长令人印象深刻，但要让我们在本世纪中叶实现净零排放，它仍未达到所需的水平。随着经济的反弹，我们看到化石燃料发电的数量激增。”
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
IEA: Renewables Growth Can’t Meet Surging Electricity Demand
Global power demand is rising so fast this year after the 2020 slump that even the continued strong growth of renewable electricity generation will not be enough to meet it, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, warning that coal power generation will jump and threaten efforts of emissions reduction.
This year, global electricity demand is expected to surge by 5 percent from the levels of 2020, when power consumption fell by around 1 percent due to the effects of the pandemic, the IEA said in its semi-annual Electricity Market Report published on Thursday.
Thanks to the global economic recovery, electricity demand worldwide is also expected to rise by another 4 percent in 2022, the agency added.
Despite the strong momentum of renewable power generation, renewables alone will not be anywhere close to meeting with rising global power demand, the IEA said. This means that nearly half of the rise in electricity demand will be met by power generation from fossil fuels, most notably coal.
The Asia Pacific region, China and India in particular, will be the largest contributors to rising electricity demand, the IEA said.
According to the agency’s estimates, fossil fuel electricity generation is set to cover 45 percent of additional demand this year and 40 percent next year, while nuclear power would make up the rest of the increase in global power demand. As a result, carbon emissions from the electricity sector – which fell in both 2019 and 2020 – are expected to rise by 3.5 percent in 2021 and by 2.5 percent in 2022, reaching an all-time high next year.
Despite the growth in renewables, the annual rise in green energy generation outpaced the growth in electricity demand only in 2019 and 2020, but it was due to very slow or declining demand in those years. This suggests that “renewables outpacing the rest of the electricity sector is not yet the new normal,” the IEA said.
“Renewable power is growing impressively in many parts of the world, but it still isn’t where it needs to be to put us on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security. “As economies rebound, we’ve seen a surge in electricity generation from fossil fuels,” Sadamori added.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
