全球石油需求以不同寻常的方式回升

   2021-08-03 互联网讯

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核心提示:   据彭博新闻社2021年7月14日报道,全球石油需求几乎回升,只是不像我们在疫情爆发之前所知道的那样。 

   据彭博新闻社2021年7月14日报道,全球石油需求几乎回升,只是不像我们在疫情爆发之前所知道的那样。

  由于全球范围内的限制意味着假期、外出就餐和服务的减少,人们在家庭生活上的支出增加了。

  这导致了实物商品交易的繁荣,推动了对石脑油制造塑料的需求,推动了卡车与货车的柴油使用。 另一个刺激因素是液化石油气的消费,液化石油气是亚洲部分地区常见的烹饪燃料。 不利的一面是,由于人们不再乘坐飞机,航空燃油使用量仍然严重低迷。由于人们普遍避免使用公共交通工具, 汽油价格也没有完全恢复正常。

  这些动态影响了整个石油行业。 富含石脑油和液化石油气的原油的生产商正经历更强劲的定价。 交易商们说,这就是为什么来自北海油田和美国页岩油田的原油价格比中东出口的原油价格高得多的原因之一。

  近几个月的最大涨幅是石脑油。 根据位于巴黎的国际能源署(IEA)的数据,6月份石脑油的需求比2019年同期增长了11%或每天66万桶。 液化石油气需求增长了7.2%或每天88万桶,高于Covid-19爆发前的水平。

  相比之下,航空燃油和汽油的日产量仍然特别疲软,比2019年6月的日产量水平低396万桶。 与两年前相比,6月份的石油产品日总需求量减少270万桶。

  美国拥有相关生产石化产品能力的炼油厂受益于消费者行为的转变,利用了整个化工行业更广泛的繁荣。 其他炼油厂,尤其是欧洲的炼油厂,已经被迫关闭,因为需求不足以满足他们的产量。

  IEA估计,6月份的石油需求比2019年同月(疫情爆发前)低约3%。 IEA预计,到今年12月,油价将差不多回到平价水平。

  李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社

  原文如下:

  Oil Demand Surges Back in Unusual Way

  Oil demand is almost back, only not quite as we knew it before Covid.

  With global restrictions meaning fewer holidays, meals out, and services, people are spending more on their home lives.

  That’s caused a boom in physical goods trades, driving up demand for naphtha to make plastics, and buoyed the use of diesel to power the trucks and trains that deliver all that stuff. Another boost: consumption of liquefied petroleum gas, a common cooking fuel in parts of Asia, is jumping. On the downside, jet fuel use remains severely depressed since people aren’t flying. Nor is gasoline still fully back to normal, despite a widespread avoidance of public transport.

  These dynamics have implications across the oil industry. Producers of crudes that are rich in naphtha and liquefied petroleum gases are experiencing stronger pricing. This is one of the reasons why barrels pumped from fields in the North Sea and U.S. shale deposits are fetching big premiums over grades exported from the Middle East, according to traders.

  The biggest gainer in recent months has been naphtha. Demand in June jumped by 11%, or 660,000 barrels a day, above the same month in 2019, according to data from the International Energy Agency in Paris. LPG demand climbed 7.2%, or 880,000 barrels a day, above pre-pandemic levels.

  By contrast, jet fuel and gasoline remained particularly weak, staying a combined 3.96 million barrels a day below June 2019 levels last month. Overall oil products demand was down by 2.7 million barrels a day in June compared with two years earlier.

  Oil refineries which have associated capacity to make petrochemicals have benefited from the shift in consumer behavior, tapping into a much wider boom across the chemicals industry. Other refineries, especially in Europe, have been forced to shut down operations because the demand hasn’t been good enough for what they churn out.

  The IEA estimated that oil demand in June was about 3 percent below where it stood in the same month in 2019, before the pandemic hit. The Paris-based adviser to governments anticipates that by December, it will be pretty much back at parity.



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