据经济时报7月15日消息：欧佩克坚持其对2021年剩余时间全球石油需求强劲复苏的预测，并预计在中国和印度的增长带动下，2022年石油消费量将进一步上升，增幅与疫情前类似。
欧佩克在其月度报告中表示，明年的石油需求将增长3.4%，达到9986万桶/天，到2022年下半年，日均需求量将超过1亿桶。
根据欧佩克的数据，2019年石油需求平均为9998万桶/天。
“到2022年，除了通过加快疫苗接种计划、有效治疗和自然免疫(特别是在新兴国家和发展中国家)以及频繁的检测程序来改善对COVID-19的控制外，对全球经济增长的健康预期，将刺激明年的石油消费达到疫情前的水平，”欧佩克在报告中表示。
该报告反映出欧佩克对全球需求将从疫情中强劲复苏的信心，使该组织及其盟友能够进一步放宽2020年制定的创纪录的供应限制。一些分析师认为石油需求曾在2019年见顶。
欧佩克还维持了2021年石油需求将增长595万桶/天的预测。
欧佩克报告发布之前，油价跌破74美元/桶。在欧佩克及其盟友(欧佩克+)减产的帮助下，今年迄今为止油价已上涨40%以上。
今年4月，欧佩克+同意从5月到7月逐步放松减产，但由于沙特和阿联酋之间的争端中断了谈判，目前尚未就2021年剩余时间的计划作出决定。路透社周三报道称，双方已达成妥协。
周四的报告显示欧佩克石油产量增加，反映了该组织增产的决定。欧佩克称，6月石油产量增加59万桶/天，至2603万桶/天。
冯娟 摘译自 经济时报
原文如下：
OPEC sees world oil demand reaching pre-pandemic level in 2022
OPEC stuck to its forecast for a strong recovery in world oil demand in the rest of 2021 and predicted oil use would rise further in 2022 similar to pre-pandemic rates, led by growth in China and India.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report on Thursday that demand next year would rise by 3.4% to 99.86 million barrels per day (bpd), averaging more than 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022.
Oil demand averaged 99.98 million bpd in 2019, according to OPEC.
"In 2022, healthy expectations for global economic growth in addition to improved containment of COVID-19 through the acceleration of vaccination programmes, effective treatment and natural immunisation, particularly in emerging and developing countries, along with frequent testing procedures, are assumed to spur consumption of oil next year to comparable pre-pandemic levels," OPEC said in the report.
The report reflected OPEC's confidence that world demand would recover robustly from the pandemic, allowing the group and its allies to further ease record supply curbs made in 2020. Some analysts had seen oil demand peaking in 2019.
OPEC also maintained its prediction that demand would grow by 5.95 million bpd in 2021.
Oil was trading just below $74 a barrel before the OPEC report was released. The price has climbed more than 40% so far this year with the help of supply cuts by OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+.
OPEC+ agreed in April to gradually ease output cuts from May to July and has yet to decide on plans for the rest of 2021 after a dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates disrupted talks. Reuters reported on Wednesday that the two had reached a compromise.
Thursday's report showed higher OPEC oil output, reflecting the decision to pump more. Output in June rose 590,000 bpd to 26.03 million bpd, OPEC said.
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