据世界能源8月14日消息：欧佩克维持其对2021-22年全球石油需求增长的预测不变，但在欧佩克+配额增加的背景下，该组织上调了供应预测。
欧佩克最新的《月度石油市场报告》将今年的需求定在9660万桶/天，比去年增加近600万桶/天。该组织预计，明年石油日需求量将进一步增加330万桶，至9990万桶，而今年下半年的需求将超过1亿桶/天。
欧佩克表示，自上次报告以来，全球经济前景略有改善，但该组织认为，这主要由非石油密集型行业推动。
该公司预计，随着道路运输活动复苏、工业部门加速发展以及新型乙烷裂解产品投产，汽油、柴油和轻馏分油将引领明年的石油需求增长。该机构预测，在交通和工业燃料需求健康增长的支持下，印度明年的消费量将超过疫情前的水平。
明年的预测假设，在疫苗接种计划和改善治疗的帮助下，大流行已得到控制。但欧佩克警告称，与新冠病毒相关的事态发展“需要在未来几个月密切监测，尤其是考虑到北半球在年底前通常会出现较冷的天气”。
在供应方面，欧佩克+联盟上月同意提高原油生产配额，这促使欧佩克提高了预测。非欧佩克成员国今年的液体供应量预计将增加109万桶/天，明年将进一步增加294万桶/天。上个月的MOMR预测，非欧佩克国家的供应增长将在2021年达到81万桶/天，在2022年达到210万桶/天。
此次修订主要反映了欧佩克+联盟的非欧佩克成员国的配额增加，如俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦。但它们也包含了对欧佩克+以外国家(包括美国和加拿大)的更高预测。
考虑到非欧佩克产油国的供应增加，欧佩克已将其成员国今年的原油日产量预测下调20万桶，至2740万桶，并将明年的日产量预测下调110万桶，至2760万桶。根据阿格斯等二手资源的平均数据，欧佩克上月的原油日产量为2670万桶。
冯娟 摘译自 世界能源
原文如下：
Opec Lifts Oil Supply Forecast, Demand Unchanged
Opec has kept its global oil demand growth projections for 2021-22 unchanged but it has lifted its forecast for supply on the back of rising Opec+ quotas.
Opec's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) pegs this year's demand at 96.6mn b/d, up by just under 6mn b/d from last year. It forecasts a further rise of 3.3mn b/d to 99.9mn b/d next year, with demand exceeding 100mn b/d in the second half of the year.
Opec said that the outlook for the global economy has improved slightly since its last report, but it assumes that this will be mainly driven by non-oil intensive sectors.
It expects gasoline, diesel and light distillates to lead next year's oil demand growth as road transport activity recovers, the industrial sector picks up steam and new ethane crackers are commissioned. It forecasts that consumption in India will outstrip pre-pandemic levels next year, "supported by a healthy rise in demand for transportation and industrial fuels".
Next year's forecast assumes that the pandemic is under control, helped by vaccination programmes and improved treatment. But Opec warns that Covid-related developments "will need close monitoring over the coming months, especially when considering the usual colder weather in the northern hemisphere towards the end of the year".
On the supply side, last month's agreement by the Opec+ coalition to lift crude production quotas has prompted Opec to raise its forecasts. Non-Opec liquids supply is now projected to rise by 1.09mn b/d this year and by a further 2.94mn b/d next year. Last month's MOMR pegged non-Opec supply growth at 810,000 b/d in 2021 and 2.1mn b/d in 2022.
The revisions mainly reflect higher quotas for non-Opec members of the Opec+ alliance, such as Russia and Kazakhstan. But they also incorporate higher forecasts for countries outside the Opec+ group including the US and Canada.
Taking into account the higher non-Opec supply, Opec has trimmed the forecast call on its own members' crude by 200,000 b/d to 27.4mn b/d this year and by 1.1mn b/d to 27.6mn b/d next year. Opec crude output was 26.7mn b/d last month, according to an average of secondary sources including Argus.
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