据油价网2021年8月11日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)在其最新的《短期能源展望》（STEO）报告中表示，今年美国原油日产量平均将为1110万桶，到2022年将增至1180万桶，低于此前的预测。
EIA还表示，5月份以来的最新月度生产数据显示，美国石油日平均产量为1120万桶，该机构预计这一数字在10月前后开始上升之前将保持相对不变。 据EIA称，这一增长将持续到2022年。
美国的在用钻机数最近一直在上升，8月第一周达到了491部，比去年同期增加了244部。 然而，仍远低于2019年8月初790部的在用钻机数。
虽然2021年的石油产量预测与上个月的STEO版本相对不变，但2022年的预测显示出比之前预期小幅增长：7月份，EIA预测2022年的石油平均日产量为1220万桶。
石油产量下调可能与欧佩克产量上升有关，EIA目前预计欧佩克产量将从今年的2650万桶天升至2022年的2870万桶/天。
EIA指出，欧佩克和美国产量的增加将推动国际油价下跌， 预测2022年布伦特原油的平均价格为66美元/桶，这是因为“欧佩克+产量的持续增长和美国致密油产量的加速增长，以及其他供应的增长，将超过全球石油消费的减速增长。”
即便如此，EIA预计，到2022年，全球石油和液体燃料的消费量将比今年增加360万桶/天，达到1.012亿桶/天。 然而，由于燃料需求反弹，EIA预计今年全球石油日消耗量将比去年增加530万桶。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
EIA Lowers Oil Production Expectations For 2022
U.S. crude oil production this year will average 11.1 million bpd and will rise to 11.8 million bpd in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook - down from its previous forecast.
The agency added that the most recent monthly data on production, from May, showed a daily average of 11.2 million, which the agency expects to remain relatively unchanged until about October when it would start rising. The rise would continue through 2022, according to the EIA.
The U.S. rig count has been on the rise lately, hitting 491 in the first week of August, up by 244 rigs from the same period last year. However, it was much lower than the active rig count in early August 2019, which stood at 790.
While the 2021 output projection is relatively unchanged from last month’s edition of the STEO, the 2022 projection shows a smaller increase than previously expected: in July, the EIA forecast 2022 oil output at 12.2 million bpd.
The downward revision probably has to do with rising OPEC production, which the EIA now expects to reach 28.7 million bpd in 2022, from 26.5 million bpd this year with all the production cuts.
This increased production from both OPEC and U.S. production will push international oil prices lower, the EIA noted, forecasting an average 2022 price for Brent of $66 per barrel as “continuing growth in production from OPEC+ and accelerating growth in U.S. tight oil production—along with other supply growth—will outpace decelerating growth in global oil consumption.”
Even so, the EIA expects that the global consumption of oil and liquid fuels will increase in 2022, by 3.6 million bpd from this year, to 101.2 million bpd. This year, however, thanks to the rebound in fuel demand, the EIA sees global consumption 5.3 million bpd higher than it was last year.
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