据油价网2021年8月12日报道，欧佩克8月12日表示，今年全球石油日需求量预计平均9660万桶，2022年下半年将突破1亿桶大关。尽管Covid-19在主要经济体死灰复燃，但欧佩克仍维持一个月前的预测不变 。
在其最新一期的月度石油市场报告(MOMR)中，欧佩克上调了其对2021年和2022年全球经济增长的预测，但仍维持7月对全球石油需求的预测不变，预计经济复苏将主要发生在非石油密集型行业。 今年和明年的全球经济增长率预测上调了0.1个百分点，欧佩克目前预计2021年的全球经济增长率为5.6%，2022年的增长率为4.2%。
“然而，仍然存在许多挑战，很容易抑制这一增长势头。 特别是，未来几个月需要密切监测与Covid -19相关的事态发展，特别是考虑到北半球临近年底通常会出现更冷的天气。”
欧佩克表示，明年全球石油日需求量平均为9990万桶，2022年下半年将超过1亿桶。 这将归功于预计将促进经济增长的大规模刺激计划，以及在疫苗接种计划和改善治疗的支持下，疫情将得到控制的预期。
在维持需求预测不变的同时，欧佩克大幅提高了对非欧佩克国家供应增长的预测，今年将增加27万桶/天，2022年将大幅增加84万桶/天。 此次上调需求预期是因为欧佩克+协议，包括非欧佩克国家俄罗斯在内的联盟成员将通过每月向市场增加40万桶/天来解除剩余的减产。 欧佩克表示，除了俄罗斯和欧佩克+协议的其他非欧佩克成员国，美国和加拿大将是提高非欧佩克原油供应量的主要推动因素。 预计美国将在2021年增加12万桶/天的供应量，在2022年增加80万桶/天。
欧佩克的报告显示，在2021年7月的产量方面，欧佩克的原油产量平均为2666万桶/天，增加了64万桶/天，这要归功于沙特阿拉伯的大幅增产，这是沙特取消了其额外减产100万桶/天的最后一部分。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
OPEC Sees Oil Demand At 100 Million Bpd Next Year Despite COVID Surge
Global oil demand is expected to average 96.6 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and exceed 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022, OPEC said on Thursday, keeping its estimates from a month ago unchanged despite the COVID resurgence in major economies, including China and the United States.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the organization raised its estimates for global economic growth for both 2021 and 2022, but left unchanged last month’s forecasts for global oil demand, expecting the economic recovery to take place mainly in non-oil intensive sectors. Global economic growth forecasts for this year and next were revised up by 0.1 percentage point, with OPEC now expecting growth for 2021 at 5.6 percent and growth in 2022 at 4.2 percent.
“However, numerous challenges remain that could easily dampen this momentum. In particular, COVID-19-related developments will need close monitoring over the coming months, especially when considering the usual colder weather in the northern hemisphere towards the end of the year,” the cartel said.
Next year, global oil demand is set to average 99.9 million bpd, and to exceed 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022, OPEC said. This will be thanks to massive stimulus packages expected to raise economic growth and to expectations that the COVID-19 pandemic will be under control, supported by vaccination programs and improved treatment.
While leaving demand forecasts unchanged, OPEC significantly raised its estimates for non-OPEC supply growth, by 270,000 bpd for 2021 and by a massive 840,000 bpd for 2022. The upward revisions were made because of the OPEC+ deal which will see the alliance including non-OPEC Russia unwind their remaining cuts, by adding 400,000 bpd to the market each month. Apart from Russia and other non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ pact, the key drivers of higher non-OPEC supply will be the United States and Canada, OPEC said. The U.S. is now expected to raise its supply by 120,000 bpd annually in 2021 and by 800,000 bpd year-on-year in 2022.
In terms of July 2021 production, OPEC’s crude oil production averaged 26.66 million bpd, up by 640,000 bpd, thanks to a large increase from Saudi Arabia which unwind the last part of its extra 1-million-bpd cut, OPEC’s report showed.
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