据钻机地带8月12日消息，美国能源信息署(EIA)在其最新的短期能源展望(STEO)中透露，其2021年和2022年的布伦特原油现货均价与上月持平。
根据EIA 8月份的STEO，布伦特原油现货价格今年平均为68.71美元/桶，明年为66.04美元/桶。EIA 7月份的STEO预测，布伦特原油现货价格在2021年将平均为68.78美元/桶，在2022年将平均为66.64美元/桶。
EIA在其最新的STEO报告中强调，布伦特原油现货价格在7月份平均为每桶75美元，较6月份上涨了2美元，较2020年底上涨了25美元。
EIA在8月份的STEO报告中表示:“由于全球石油库存的稳定消耗，布伦特原油价格今年一直在上涨，2021年上半年平均为180万桶/天，7月份保持在近140万桶/天。”
“我们预计，在2021年剩余时间里，布伦特原油价格将保持在当前水平附近，8 月至 11 月的平均价格为每桶 72 美元。然而,到2022年,我们预计欧佩克+产量持续增长和美国致密油产量的加速增长以及其他供应增长将超过全球石油消费增长减速,导致布伦特原油价格下降到2022年的平均每桶66美元。”EIA 在其STEO中补充道。
EIA预测，2021年欧佩克原油产量将达到平均2650万桶/天，高于2020年的2560万桶/天。该组织预计，明年欧佩克原油产量将达到平均2870万桶/天。 EIA最近的月度数据显示，5月份美国原油产量为1120万桶/天。EIA表示，预计 10 月产量将相对持平，然后在 11 月和 12 月以及整个 2022 年开始上升。根据EIA的数据，美国明年的原油产量平均为1180万桶/天，高于2021年的1110万桶/天。
EIA指出，其最新的 STEO 仍然受到与新冠疫情的持续复苏相关的高度不确定性的影响。该组织表示，它的预测假设了经济持续增长和流动性增加，并补充称，任何可能导致偏离这些假设的发展都可能导致能源消耗和价格偏离其预测。
裘寅 编译自 Rigzone
原文如下：
USA EIA Reveals New Oil Price Forecast
The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) kept its Brent spot average prices for 2021 and 2022 flat month on month, the organization’s latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) has revealed.
According to its August STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $68.71 per barrel this year and $66.04 per barrel next year. The EIA’s July STEO forecasted that Brent spot prices would average $68.78 per barrel in 2021 and $66.64 per barrel in 2022.
In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $75 per barrel in July, which it noted was up $2 per barrel from June and up $25 per barrel from the end of 2020.
“Brent prices have been rising this year as result of steady draws on global oil inventories, which averaged 1.8 million barrels per day (MMbpd) during the first half of 2021 and remained at almost 1.4 MMbpd in July,” the EIA stated in its August STEO.
“We expect Brent prices will remain near current levels for the remainder of 2021, averaging $72 per barrel from August through November. However, in 2022, we expect that continuing growth in production from OPEC+ and accelerating growth in U.S. tight oil production - along with other supply growth - will outpace decelerating growth in global oil consumption and contribute to Brent prices declining to an average of $66 per barrel in 2022,” the EIA added in the STEO.
The EIA forecasts that OPEC crude oil production will average 26.5 MMbpd in 2021, which it highlights is up from 25.6 MMbpd in 2020. The organization expects OPEC crude oil production will rise to an average of 28.7 MMbpd next year. Looking at U.S. crude oil production, the EIA’s most recent monthly data shows this output stood at 11.2 MMbpd in May. The EIA said it expects production to be relatively flat through October before it starts rising in November and December and throughout 2022. U.S. crude oil production for next year averages 11.8 MMbpd, up from 11.1 MMbpd in 2021, according to the EIA.
The EIA noted that its latest STEO remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. The organization says its forecast assumes continuing economic growth and increasing mobility and adds that any developments that would cause deviations from these assumptions would likely cause energy consumption and prices to deviate from its forecast.
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