据今日油价8月11日报道，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Aramco)预计利润将增长近300%，因为沙特阿拉伯正经历着从去年新冠肺炎疫情打击石油需求后的戏剧性反弹。由于油价自今年年初以来上涨了30%，以及需求稳步增长，沙特阿拉伯的石油行业将在2021年变得更加强劲。
石油和天然气行业在经历了2020年的停滞后，终于看到了一些增长，这是由于持续的疫苗接种工作，全球限制性措施的放松，以及经济活动的恢复。
沙特阿美本周宣布，2021年第二季度的净利润增加了255亿美元，或288%。此前，美国埃克森美孚公司宣布第二季度增长47亿美元，此外，荷兰皇家壳牌公司获得高额利润，显示出这个受到重创的行业的恢复力。
沙特阿美首席执行官Amin Nasser在一份声明中表示:“我们第二季度的业绩反映了全球能源需求的强劲反弹，随着全球复苏势头的增强，我们将在2021年下半年更具韧性和灵活性。”
沙特政府预计将削减在疫情期间大幅膨胀的预算赤字。沙特阿美的年度股息为750亿美元，是世界上最高的，这有助于在新冠疫情限制措施下为沙特阿拉伯提供资金。
沙特石油行业的反弹对整体经济产生了连锁反应，第二季度非石油行业增长10.1%。国际货币基金组织预计，沙特经济今年将增长2.4%，如果政府决定更快地放松对限制措施，并增加石油生产，恢复速度可能会更快。
自今年年初以来，由于产油国削减产量水平以刺激油价上涨，油价持续攀升，欧佩克+最终决定从8月份开始增加石油供应，以在油价过度膨胀之前满足需求。
沙特阿拉伯多年来一直依赖其强大的石油和天然气行业，现在它也在着眼于石油行业以外的领域，通过数万亿美元的支出来刺激非石油行业。这是沙特2030愿景计划的一部分，到2025年，公共投资基金每年将向当地经济注入超过400亿美元。
然而，如果沙特想继续看到整个亚洲关键市场的需求增长，就必须提高其竞争优势。Delta病毒的蔓延，各国纷纷出台了更严格的限制措施，加上该地区的廉价竞争对手，沙特阿拉伯在亚洲市场的吸引力难以维持。
此外，随着美国和俄罗斯提供更具竞争力的油价，沙特阿拉伯石油的吸引力似乎有所下降。
沙特阿美已将其阿拉伯中质和重质原油的价格提高了约20至30美分/桶。与此同时，美国降低了Mars石油的价格，俄罗斯也对乌拉尔油采取了同样的做法。这可能会赶走买家，除非沙特阿美对该地区需求水平的定期变化作出更公平的定价回应。
随着需求增加和油价上涨，沙特阿美看到了年度利润的积极趋势，因此它必须在这些预期与世界石油市场的持续波动之间取得平衡，世界石油市场仍然受到新冠疫情的影响，而石油市场仍然强劲，石油巨头们也在推动着更大的竞争。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Industry Is Staging An Impressive Comeback
Aramco sees profits up nearly 300 percent as Sadia Arabia experiences a dramatic rebound from last year’s pandemic-hit oil demand. Thanks to prices that have increased by 30 percent since the beginning of the year, as well as steadily increasing demand, Saudi Arabia’s oil industry is going from strength to strength in 2021.
The oil and gas industry is finally seeing some growth after stagnation in 2020 due to ongoing vaccination efforts, the easing of Covid-19 restrictions worldwide, and the return of economic activity.
Aramco this week announced a net income increase of $25.5 billion, or 288 percent, in the second quarter of 2021. This comes just after US firm Exxon Mobil announced an increase of $4.7 billion in their second quarter, and high profits from Royal Dutch Shell, showing the resilience of a hard-hit industry.
Amin Nasser, CEO of Aramco, said in a statement, "Our second-quarter results reflect a strong rebound in worldwide energy demand and we are heading into the second half of 2021 more resilient and more flexible, as the global recovery gains momentum."
The Saudi government is now expected to reduce the budget deficit which inflated significantly during the pandemic. Aramco’s annual dividend represented the world’s largest at $75 billion, which helped fund Saudi Arabia while under Covid restrictions.
The rebound of Saudi’s oil industry has had a knock-on effect on the economy as a whole which saw a 10.1 percent growth in the non-oil sector in the second quarter. The IMF now anticipates that the Saudi economy will grow by 2.4 percent this year, which could happen faster if the government decides to relax Covid restrictions faster as well as boosting oil production.
Following a continuous climb in oil prices since the beginning of the year, as producers cut output levels to spur on this price increase, OPEC+ finally decided last month that they would be boosting oil supply from August to meet demand before oil prices become overinflated.
Saudi Arabia is also looking beyond its oil industry, after years of dependence on its strong oil and gas sector, to stimulate the non-oil sector through multi-trillion-dollar spending. This is part of Saudi’s Vision 2030 program which will see the Public Investment Fund injecting over $40 billion a year into the local economy through 2025.
However, Saudi Arabia will have to improve its competitive edge if it wants to continue seeing demand increase across the key market in Asia. Due to the prevalence of the Delta variant of Covid causing several countries to introduce stricter restrictions as well as cheaper competitors in the region, Saudi Arabia is finding it hard to maintain its appeal in the Asian market.
Further, as the U.S. and Russia offer more competitive oil prices, Saudi Arabian oil is looking less attractive.
Aramco has increased its Arab Medium and Heavy grades by around 20 and 30 cents a barrel, at the same time as the U.S. lowers the price of its similar Mars oil, and Russia takes the same approach with its Urals. This could drive buyers away unless Aramco responds to regular changes in demand levels across the region with fairer pricing.
As Aramco sees a positive trend for annual profits, in line with increasing demand and strong oil prices, it will have to balance these expectations with the ongoing volatility of the oil market in a world still affected by Covid and with companies pushing for greater competition while the oil market is still strong.
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