据烃加工网8月10日报道， 日前，美国能源信息署(EIA)在一份月度报告中表示，预计2021年美国原油日产量将减少16万桶，至1112万桶，降幅小于此前预测的21万桶。
油价已经从去年的历史低点反弹，促使一些美国生产商增加钻探活动。自去年8月降至历史最低水平以来，美国的钻机总数已经增加了一倍多。
EIA表示，预计10月份产量将相对持平，然后11月和12月以及整个2022年上升。
2022年，美国原油日均产量预计约为1180万桶，增长65万桶，低于此前预测的75万桶。
2019年，在新冠疫情摧毁需求和价格之前，日产量达到1230万桶的历史新高。
该机构表示，预计2021年美国石油和其他液体燃料日消耗量将增加158万桶，达到1970万桶，而此前的预测为增加152万桶。
据EIA称，2021年上半年美国汽油日均消耗量为860万桶，高于2020年下半年的830万桶，但低于2019年下半年的930万桶。根据我们最新的估计显示，5-7月的汽油消费量高于我们之前的预期。就业增长和流动性增加导致2021年迄今汽油消费量上升。
预计2021年全年全球石油和液体燃料日均消费量为9760万桶，较2020年增加530万桶。
EIA预测，2022年，全球石油和液体燃料日均消费量将增加360万桶，达到1.012亿桶。
郝芬 译自 烃加工网
原文如下：
U.S. crude output to fall less in 2021 than previously forecast
U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.12 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a monthly report, a smaller decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 210,000 bpd.
Oil prices have rebounded from the historic lows seen last year, prompting some U.S. producers to boost drilling activity. The total U.S. rig count has more than doubled since falling to a record low in August last year.
The EIA said it expects production to be relatively flat through October before beginning to rise in November and December and throughout 2022.
For 2022, U.S. crude production is expected to average about 11.8 million bpd, a rise of 650,000 bpd, smaller than the previous forecast for a rise of 750,000 bpd.
Output hit an all-time annual high of 12.3 million bpd in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic crushed demand and prices.
The agency said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.58 million bpd to 19.70 million bpd in 2021, compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.52 million bpd.
U.S. gasoline consumption averaged 8.6 million bpd in the first half of 2021, up from 8.3 million bpd in the second half of 2020 but below the 9.3 million bpd in the second half of 2019, EIA said.
"Our latest estimates show that gasoline consumption in May through July was higher than we had previously expected. Growth in employment and increasing mobility have led to rising gasoline consumption so far in 2021," the agency said.
Globally, consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels is forecast to average 97.6 million bpd for all of 2021, a 5.3 million bpd increase from 2020.
The EIA forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 3.6 million bpd in 2022 to average 101.2 million bpd.
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