据油价网2021年8月9日报道，廉价天然气时代可能一去不复返了。 得益于未来一段时间更热的天气预报，以及全球飙升的天然气价格，确保美国液化天然气(LNG)出口将保持在创纪录高位，美国天然气期货价格日前攀升至31个月来高点的4.16美元/百万英热单位。
全球金融市场数据和基础设施提供商Refinitiv预计，由于冷却的需求持续增加，包括出口在内的平均天然气需求将从909亿立方英尺/天攀升至945亿立方英尺/天。 下周的预测实际上低于预期，这是因为天然气价格越来越高，一些发电厂将被迫改用煤炭发电。
但这还不足以阻止天然气价格的上涨。
价格上涨对美国LNG来说是个好消息：与2020年上半年相比，2021年1月至6月，美国LNG出口量同比大幅增加了42%，日均达到了96亿立方英尺。亚洲仍然是美国LNG的最大买家，截至5月底，亚洲占美国LNG出口总量的46%。
短期展望：天然气供应趋紧
根据英国《金融时报》的一篇报道，由于天然气供应趋紧、欧洲天然气产量下降以及俄罗斯天然气出口减少，欧洲和亚洲的天然气价格出现了大幅攀升。
由此，欧洲天然气价格首次飙升至40欧元/兆瓦时 (14欧元/百万英热单位)左右，英国天然气价格达到了16年来的最高水平。 亚洲的情况更为严峻，天然气价格已达到15美元/百万英热单位。
预计未来一段时间全球天然气供应紧张只会加剧。
“令人惊讶的是，没有出现更多的担忧。 在增加供应方面，全球可供选择的选项并不多。 俄罗斯确实是唯一可自由支配的天然气供应来源，但我们不知道额外的天然气供应可能何时开始。 因此，从日本到巴西，世界各地的交易商也开始关注欧洲的天然气价格。
全球天然气需求强劲反弹，部分原因是由于经济复苏，但也由于一系列极端天气事件。欧洲漫长的冬季以及巴西等地的干旱增加了天然气消耗。
不过，看涨的短期前景可能面临压力。
在8月6日结束的一周里，美国能源信息署（EIA）记录了美国天然气库存增加了320亿立方英尺的注入量，高于五年平均注入水平的300亿立方英尺。
长期展望：天然气充当桥梁角色
美国长期以来都很喜欢天然气，化石燃料在美国的发电组合中扮演着关键角色，而近一半的美国家庭使用这种燃料取暖。 在许多州，从化石燃料到可再生能源的转变正如火如荼地进行着，天然气充当着桥梁的角色，它将使这一转变更加平稳、不那么令人不安。
的确，天然气和LNG现在被视为过渡到可再生能源的桥梁，因为它们更有利的排放状况，因为它产生的二氧化碳比燃料油少30%，比煤炭少45%。
而且，这很可能成为一种长期趋势。
然而，结合一些短期利好因素，如供应中断、全球经济反弹以及暂停新的LNG出口厂已经推动天然气价格上扬，有越来越多的人一致认为，由清洁能源转型主导的结构性变化意味着这可能成为新的常态。
更糟糕的是，在关注气候变化的投资者和政府的呼吁下，近几年来对新气田的投资一直在下降。 例如，欧洲的高碳价格正迫使公用事业公司迅速转向天然气，而南亚和东南亚的数十个国家的政府正计划建设数十个新的天然气厂，以满足快速增长的电力需求。 此外，在资金部署有限的情况下，转向天然气的速度相对较快。
由于几乎没有其他可行的选择，世界将继续更加严重地依赖燃烧更清洁的天然气，以帮助实现短期的绿色目标。
宏观咨询公司首席执行官Chris Weafer告诉彭博社记者：“不管你怎么看，由于主要经济体承诺实现碳排放目标，天然气将成为未来几十年的过渡燃料。 天然气价格更有可能在中期内保持高位，并在长期内保持上涨。”
的确，根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，天然气是唯一的一种需求预计在本10年中将出现显著增长的化石燃料，预计到2024年前，全球天然气的需求将比疫情前的水平增加7%。 据麦肯锡公司的一次分析，全球LNG需求预计将继续保持强劲，到2035年全球LNG需求预计将每年增加3.4%。
然而，由于缺乏资本投资，天然气供应可能仍将呈现紧张。 例如，自2020年初以来，除了在卡塔尔的大规模天然气项目扩建外，全球几乎没有新的LNG出口项目获得批准。 与此同时，沙特阿拉伯计划开发巨大的贾富拉天然气田，但其中很大一部分天然气产出很可能最终用于本国绿色氢项目。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Cheap Natural Gas Is A Thing Of The Past
The era of cheap natural gas might be gone for good. U.S. natural gas futures climbed to a 31-month high of 4.16/MMBtu on Thursday thanks to forecasts for hotter weather over the next two weeks and soaring global gas prices ensuring that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will remain at record highs.
Refinitiv has projected that average gas demand, including exports, will climb from 90.9 bcfd in the current week to 94.5 bcfd next week as cooling demand keeps rising. Next week's forecast is actually lower than anticipated because some power generators will be forced to burn coal instead due to increasingly high natural gas prices.
But that won't be on a big enough scale to stop the natural gas march.
And that's great news for U.S. LNG: Between January and June 2021, U.S. LNG exports jumped by 42% Y/Y to an average of 9.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared with the first half of 2020. Asia remained the top buyer of U.S. LNG, accounting for 46 percent of exports through the end of May.
Short-term outlook: Supply Crunch
According to a report in the Financial Times, natural gas prices have climbed sharply across Europe and Asia thanks to tighter supplies, lower production volumes in Europe, as well as lower exports from Russia.
Consequently, natural gas prices in Europe have surged to around 40 euros per mWh (~14/MMBtu) for the first time ever, with UK gas prices at the highest levels in 16 years. The situation is even direr in Asia where gas prices have hit $15/MMBtu
The supply crunch is only expected to intensify over the coming weeks.
"If anything it's surprising there hasn't been more concern. In terms of additional supply there aren't many options on the table globally. Russia is really the only discretionary source of supplies out there but we don't know when additional deliveries might start. So traders around the world, from Japan to Brazil, are starting to watch European prices too," Tom Marzec-Manser at ICIS has told FT.
Natural gas demand has rebounded strongly across the globe in part due to economic recovery as economies reopen but also due to a spate of extreme weather events. A long winter in Europe as well as droughts in places like Brazil have elevated natural gas consumption.
The bullish short-term outlook could, however, come under pressure.
Last week, the EIA recorded a 32 Bcf injection, above the five-year average of 30 Bcf.
Long-term outlook: The Natural Gas Bridge
The United States has a long-running love affair with natural gas, with fossil fuels acting as the lynchpin in the country's power generation mix, while nearly half of American homes use the fuel for heating. With the transition from fossil fuels to renewables in full swing in many states, natural gas serves as the bridge that will make the switch smoother and less jarring.
Indeed, natural gas and LNG are now being viewed as the bridge in the transition to renewable energy thanks to their more favorable emissions profile, as it generates 30% less carbon dioxide than fuel oil and 45% less than coal.
And, this is very likely to become a long-term trend.
Whereas a combination of several short-term tailwinds such as supply disruptions, the global economic rebound, and a pause in new LNG export plants have been driving the natural gas rally, there is a growing consensus that structural changes led by the clean energy transition mean that this is likely to become the new norm.
To exacerbate matters, investments in new gas fields have been falling over the years amid calls from climate-conscious investors and governments. For instance, high carbon prices in Europe are forcing utilities to quickly switch to natural gas；while scores of governments in South and Southeast Asia are planning dozens of new gas plants to meet rapidly growing electricity needs. Further, the switch to natural gas can be made relatively quickly with limited capital deployments.
With few other viable options, the world will continue to rely more heavily on cleaner-burning gas to help achieve short-term green goals.
"No matter how you look at it, gas will be the transitional fuel for decades to come as major economies commit to meeting carbon emission targets. The price of gas is more likely to remain high in the medium term and increase in the long term," Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd., has told Bloomberg.
Indeed, natural gas is the only fossil fuel that's expected to record significant growth in the current decade, with demand forecast to increase 7% from pre-Covid-19 levels by 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. LNG demand, in particular, is expected to remain strong, with LNG demand forecast to grow 3.4% annually through 2035, according to an analysis by McKinsey & Co.
A lack of capital investments, however, means that natural gas supply is likely to remain tight. For instance, few new LNG export projects have been approved since early 2020, save for a massive expansion in Qatar. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has planned to develop the giant Jafurah gas field, but a good chunk of that gas is likely to end up in its green hydrogen project.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
