据美国钻井网站2021年8月5日报道，最近几周，原油价格的近期前景似乎已显著恶化。
这是根据渣打银行发表的一份最新油价报告得出的结论。分析师们在报告中表示，他们认为全球石油市场目前仍处于过剩状态，亚太地区需求的疲软意味着未来存在更大的过剩风险。
渣打银行在周三（8月4日）发给美国钻井网站的报告中表示：“随着价格前景的黯淡，现在的问题是生产商在油价上涨期间如何反应。”
分析师补充称：“从石油公司的上半年财报季来看，许多独立石油公司在过去3个月里有所保留，考虑到当前投资组合中对冲价格相对较低，他们更倾向于增加上行敞口。”
渣打银行的分析师接着说，对25名早期记者的抽样调查显示，石油对冲头寸连续第5个季度萎缩。 未来4个季度的掉期交易平均每桶超过66美元，比3个月前投资组合中一年期掉期交易的平均水平高出了22美元。 现在的平均价格略高于每桶47美元，仍远低于当前价格。
分析师在报告中指出，美国能源信息署(EIA)最新发布的报告仍看涨其美国石油多头买空指数，并表示在过去一周全球流动数据略强，但分析师补充称，过去两个月在最大地区的总体趋势要么是持平或下降。
基本面前景不变
惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究分析师周三在发给美国钻井网站的一份报告中表示，他们对本季度油价的基本面展望没有变化。他们预测，2021年布伦特原油均价将达到72美元/桶，2022年为69美元/桶，2023年为70美元/桶，2024年为72美元/桶，2025年为74美元/桶。
惠誉分析师在报告中表示：“我们预计下半年市场平衡仍将紧张。”
分析师补充说：“供应将会上升。欧佩克+同意在8月至12月期间每天恢复40万桶原油产量，而页岩产量在二叠纪盆地的带动下恢复了低增长水平。 然而，面对全球新冠肺炎疫情的再度爆发，石油需求也将继续正常化，增速将超过产量的增长。”
“从2022年开始，前景变得更加黯淡。 随着经济复苏势头放缓，石油需求增长放缓，经济复苏将越过高峰。 与此同时，美国、欧佩克+的原油产量增加，将大幅增加市场上的供应。”
分析师表示，他们的全球供需平衡表明，明年全球市场将出现大量供应过剩，而随着疫情消退，市场人气可能只会部分上扬。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Analysts Talk Oil Prices
The immediate prospects for oil prices appear to have deteriorated significantly in recent weeks.
That’s according to a new oil price report from Standard Chartered, in which analysts state that they think the market is now in surplus and that weakness in Asia-Pacific demand implies a risk of larger surpluses to come.
“With the price outlook darkening, the question is, how did producers react during the period of higher prices,” Standard Chartered said in its note, which was sent to Rigzone on Wednesday.
“The evidence from the first half of the oil company reporting season is that many independents held back over the past three months, preferring to increase their exposure to the upside given the relatively low hedged prices in their current portfolio,” the analysts added.
“A sample of 25 early reporters implies oil hedge books shrank for a fifth successive quarter. Swaps transacted for the next four quarters averaged above $66 per barrel, $22 per barrel higher than the average of one-year swaps in the portfolio three months ago. That average is now just over $47 per barrel, still well below current prices,” Standard Chartered analysts went on to say.
The analysts noted in the report that the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) release was bullish according to its U.S. oil data bull-bear index, and said global mobility data was slightly stronger over the past week, but added that overall trends in the largest regions over the past two months are either flat or falling.
Fundamental Outlook Unchanged
Analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research revealed that the company’s fundamental outlook on oil prices is unchanged this quarter, in a report sent to Rigzone on Wednesday. The company forecasts that Brent crude oil will average $72 per barrel in 2021, $69 per barrel in 2022, $70 per barrel in 2023, $72 per barrel in 2024 and $74 per barrel in 2025.
“We expect the market balance to remain tight over H2 [second half of the year],” Fitch Solutions analysts stated in the report.
“Supply will rise. OPEC+ has agreed to return 400,000 barrels per day every month between August and December, while shale production has returned to low levels of growth, led by the Permian. However, in the face of renewed outbreaks of the coronavirus globally, oil demand will also continue to normalize, outpacing the growth in production,” the analysts added.
“From 2022, the outlook becomes more clouded. The economic recovery will have passed it peaks, with momentum slowing and oil demand growth decelerating. At the same time, rising volumes from the U.S., OPEC+ and, prospectively, will substantially increase the supply availably to market,” the analysts continued.
The analysts said their global supply and demand balance points to a large glut next year, which may only partly be offset by firming sentiment as the pandemic fades.
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