据管道&天然气杂志网8月6日报道，据美国能源安全分析公司ESAI 能源称，液化天然气(NGL)的“需求增长峰值”时代将在2025 年结束。
根据ESAI能源最新发布的《全球NGL 5年展望》显示，2021-2025年期间，亚洲液化石油气(LPG)进口需求每年将增长不到10万桶/天，全球市场将回到过剩状态。
据ESAI预测，中国和印度的发展将减缓亚洲两大液化石油气市场的进口增长。
另外，ESAI能源认为，由于美国对新乙烷裂解装置的投资相对不足，2023年后对美国乙烷的需求将减速。虽然2021年海外裂解装置的交付量出现了创纪录的增长，但出口增长将放缓。因此，全球对美国乙烷的需求增长将放缓。
ESAI能源负责人Andrew Reed表示，对液化石油气和乙烷的需求增长都将放缓。鉴于该NGL基本面通常是由供应决定的，令人惊讶的是，我们并不认为供应危机会导致乙烷或液化石油气的价格超出石化原料的价格。相反，在一年左右的时间，我们预计液化石油气市场将重新出现过剩。
郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网
原文如下:
ESAI: Era of Peak Demand Growth for NGLs' Nears End
NGLs’ era of “peak demand growth” will come to an end by 2025 according to ESAI Energy.
Between 2021 and 2025, Asia’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) import requirement will grow less than 100,000 b/d annually and the global market will flip back to surplus, according to ESAI Energy’s newly published Global NGL 5-Year Outlook.
Developments in both China and India will slow the growth of imports to Asia’s two biggest LPG markets, ESAI projects.
Separately, ESAI Energy submits that demand for US ethane will decelerate after 2023 due to a relative lack of investment in new ethane crackers in the US. While 2021 is seeing a record increase in deliveries to overseas crackers, export growth will moderate. Consequently, global demand for US ethane will grow at a slowing pace.
“Demand growth for both LPG and ethane will slow,” explains ESAI Energy Principal Andrew Reed. “Given that the NGL fundamentals are usually shaped by supply, it is striking that we do not foresee a supply crunch that would price ethane or LPG out of the petchem feed slate. To the contrary, in a year or so we anticipate the LPG market flipping back to surplus.
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