据能源全球8月4日消息称，全球领先的数据分析公司GlobalData表示，到2030年，全球可再生能源或天然气的碳捕集制氢能力将增加20倍以上，达到1400万吨/年。
GlobalData的最新报告《氢转型前景和趋势——2021年第三季度》显示，最近宣布的低碳项目的总产能已超过2000万吨/年。在这些产能中，85%来自“绿色氢”项目，即使用可再生能源生产氢气的项目，而其余15%来自“蓝色氢”项目，即使用天然气生产氢气，但配备了碳捕获技术。
大部分在建产能来自仍处于可行性阶段、不确定是否会继续进行的项目。GlobalData的2030年展望预测，在高情景下，低碳氢产能将达到1400万吨/年，而低情景下，低碳氢产能将有更多可衡量的增长，达到800万吨/年，尽管仍比当前60万吨/年的活跃产能高出10倍以上。
GlobalData 管理能源分析师 Will Scargill 评论道：“低碳氢可以为炼油和化工行业提供减排途径，也可以为重型运输和工业等难以减排的行业提供脱碳途径。这一行业在未来十年有快速增长的潜力，绿色氢气将引领这一行业的发展。然而，速度将取决于主要项目的进展到投资，特别是在管道相对头重足轻的情况下，前10个项目占管道产能的65%。”
除了不断发展产能之外，低碳氢行业增长的关键决定因素将是政策支持和更广泛价值链的发展。欧盟在 2020 年宣布了一项雄心勃勃的氢能战略，全球许多政府正在制定政策，以抢占这一增长市场的份额并加速本国的能源转型。
代表价值链不同部分的公司之间也出现了合作关系，以建立连贯的发展战略。这包括开发产能的公司与拥有潜在客户的公司之间的合作，以支持这些发展。仅2021年第二季度，与氢相关的合作协议数量就超过2020年上半年的三倍。
Scargill 先生总结道：“低碳氢行业的快速发展将依赖于公司和政府之间的合作努力。通过开发新的需求和产能，扩大技术规模，降低成本，这应该能够实现该行业的商业化。”
朱佳妮 摘译自 能源全球
原文如下：
Globaldata: clean hydrogen production set to increase
Global capacity for hydrogen production from renewable energy or natural gas with carbon capture could increase by over 20 times reaching 14 million tpy by 2030, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Hydrogen Transition Outlook and Trends – Q3 2021’, reveals that recent announcements have brought the total capacity of low carbon projects in the pipeline to over 20 million tpy. Out of this capacity, 85% is from ‘green hydrogen’ projects, those where hydrogen is produced from renewable sources, while the remaining 15% is contributed by ‘blue hydrogen’ projects, which produce hydrogen from natural gas but are equipped with carbon capture technology.
The majority of the capacity in the pipeline comes from projects that are still in the feasibility stage and not certain to go ahead. GlobalData’s 2030 outlook envisages low carbon hydrogen capacity reaching 14 million tpy in a high case scenario while the low case scenario would see more measured growth to 8 million tpy, though still over 10 times higher than the currently active capacity of 0.6 million tpy.
Will Scargill, Managing Energy Analyst at GlobalData, comments: "Low carbon hydrogen can offer path to reduced emissions in the refining and chemicals sectors, as well as decarbonization of hard to abate sectors such as heavy transport and industry. The sector has the potential for rapid growth this decade, with green hydrogen leading the charge. However, the pace will depend on progressing major projects through to investment, particularly as the pipeline is relatively top-heavy with the top 10 projects representing 65% of pipeline capacity."
In addition to progressing production capacity developments, key determinants of low carbon hydrogen sector growth will be policy support and development of the wider value chain. The EU announced an ambitious hydrogen strategy in 2020 and many governments globally are developing policies to capture a share of this growth market and accelerate their own energy transitions.
Partnerships are also springing up between companies representing different parts of the value chain to build a coherent strategy for development. This includes collaborations between companies developing production capacity and those with potential customers to underpin these developments. 2Q2021 alone witnessed over three times the number of hydrogen-related partnership deals as in 1H2020.
Mr Scargill concludes: "A rapid build out of the low carbon hydrogen sector will rely on a collaborative effort between companies and with governments. This should allow commercialisation of the sector by developing new demand segments alongside capacity, scaling up technologies and bringing costs down."
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