据油价网8月4日消息，经过几个月的不确定性，随着欧佩克继续减产，以及新冠疫情的限制措施重新生效，2021年的石油需求似乎终于趋于稳定，价格和需求将继续增长。随着Delta变异毒株在7月份变得更加突出，最初是在印度和英国，然后逐渐在全球其他国家，许多国家被迫重新进入封锁状态，或经历了工作和行动的其他限制。这导致一些专家猜测，面对全球限制旅行和工业的限制，石油和天然气需求将不可避免地再次下降。
然而，随着英国在7月中旬取消所有限制，以及其他几个国家继续放松封锁，预期中的需求下降对行业的打击没有预期的那么严重。
由于疫苗的成功推出以及全球工作和旅行活动的增加，布伦特原油在7月份出现了第四个月的上涨。随着北美和欧洲继续开展疫苗接种工作，国际航空和当地公路旅行的趋势终于开始升温，导致对石油产品的需求飙升。
虽然美国石油公司在疫情期间控制了产量，但随着需求持续上升，这种趋势可能会发生变化。美国银行财富管理版块高级投资策略师Rob Haworth表示:“美国会表现更多供应反应，这只是时间问题，而不是是否问题。”
此外，在经历了数月的大幅减产后，欧佩克+的产量在7月份达到了15个月以来的最高水平，由于沙特阿拉伯同意根据全球需求放松减产，因此平均产量为 2672 万桶/日。
德国商业银行的Carsten Fritsch解释了与新冠疫情有关的需求趋势的一个重要变化，这可能意味着两者不再密不可分。他表示:“多数预测仍预计今年下半年需求将强劲增长。换句话说，很容易相信石油市场已经学会了与病毒共存。”
尽管随着限制措施的实施和取消，全球范围内的需求可能会继续下降，但疫情似乎不再是全球需求杀手。
在印度，尽管新冠病例不断，但石油需求仍在上升。事实上，在上周末，印度的燃料需求见顶，汽油消费达到了疫情前的水平，以应对全国各地放松的疫情限制。
7月，印度国有燃料公司销售了237万吨石油，比2019年7月疫情前的销售增长了3.56%。2020年柴油销量也增长了12.36%，达到545万吨。
由于亚洲推动着全球石油需求，并有望在未来10年成为主要市场，中国和印度对全球需求水平有着重大影响。然而，随着欧洲和美国声明他们正在学习适应新冠疫情，亚洲石油需求的变化与历史悠久的市场更大的稳定性相抵消，这意味着石油需求的增长将在2021年持续增长。
裘寅 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Has The Oil Market Learned To Live With Covid?
After a few uncertain months, as OPEC oil cuts continued and Covid restrictions came back into place, oil demand for 2021 finally seems stable, with price and demand increases set to continue. As the Delta variant became more prominent in July, initially in India and the U.K.
and then gradually across the rest of the globe, many countries were forced back into lockdown or experienced other restrictions to work and movement. This led several experts to speculate that oil and gas demand would inevitably be driven down once again in the face of global restrictions limiting travel and industry. However, as the U.K. reduced all restrictions in mid-July, and several other countries continue to ease lockdowns, this anticipated dip in demand did not hit the industry as hard as expected.
Brent crude posted a fourth monthly gain in July, as oil demand grew faster than supply thanks to a successful vaccine rollout and the increase in work and travel activities worldwide. As vaccine efforts in North America and Europe continue, international air and local road travel trends are finally picking up, sending demand for petroleum products soaring.
While American oil firms have kept production in check through the course of the pandemic, this trend is likely to change as demand continues to rise. Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management stated, “It’s a matter of when, not if, before we see more of a supply response in the U.S.”
In addition, after months of steep output cuts, OPEC+ production reached a 15-month high in July, pumping an average of 26.72 million bpd as Saudi Arabia agreed to ease cuts in line with global demand.
Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank explained an important shift in the demand trend in relation to the coronavirus, which could mean the two are no longer inextricably linked. "Most forecasts are still predicting robust growth in demand in the second half of the year," as "It is easy to believe that the oil market has learnt to live with the virus, in other words.", he stated.
Even though some dips are likely to continue around the world, as restrictions come in and out of place, the pandemic no longer seems to be the universal demand killer.
While in India, despite the ongoing challenges of continued Covid-19 cases, oil demand is rising. In fact, at the end of last week, India’s fuel demand peaked as petrol consumption reached pre-pandemic levels in response to easing pandemic restrictions across the country.
State-owned fuel companies sold 2.37 million tonnes of petroleum in July, a 3.56 percent increase on pre-pandemic sales in July 2019. Diesel sales also increased, by 12.36 percent to 5.45 million tonnes, on 2020.
With Asia driving global oil demand and expected to be the main market over the next decade, China and India have a significant impact on global demand levels. However, with Europe and the U.S. making the statement that they are learning to live with the coronavirus, changes in Asian oil needs are countered with greater stability in long-established markets meaning the increasing oil demand is set to continue through 2021.
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