据世界石油2021年8月3日报道，二叠纪盆地是美国最大的产油盆地，在COVID-19大流行期间是美国受影响最严重的地区。然而，全球领先的数据和分析公司GlobalData表示，随着市场从Covid-19疫情中复苏，到2022年前，二叠纪盆地的原油和天然气产量可能会超过疫情前的水平。
根据GlobalData的题为“美国二叠纪盆地2021年——石油和天然气页岩市场分析和2025年展望”的最新报告，二叠纪盆地目前每天将生产460万桶石油，预计在2022年中期前将超过490万桶/天，届时将超过2020年2月新冠肺炎疫情大流行前达到的480万桶/天的产量。
GlobalData油气分析师Svetlana Doh评论道：“二叠纪盆地的产量在2019年12月达到了峰值，并在2020年第一季度继续上升。然而，自那以后，由于新冠肺炎疫情引发的全球‘需求崩溃’，二叠纪盆地的产量开始逐渐减少。今年上半年限制和旅行禁令的放松改善了需求前景，促进了二叠纪盆地的生产活动。”
然而，随着稳定的生产增长和积极的投资前景，预计在完全恢复后，二叠纪盆地的产量将在2022年前达到大流行前的水平。
Doh女士总结道，尽管西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格已反弹至疫情前的水平，但在用钻机数仍在缓慢追赶。去年8月，二叠纪盆地的在用钻机数降至117部，为历史最低点。自去年9月以来，二叠纪盆地的在用钻机数缓慢增长，增长了约7%。截至今年6月，二叠纪盆地共有235部钻机在作业，而一年前的6月只有135部钻机在作业。GlobalData预计，油气公司将重新关注其在二叠纪盆地的核心资产，并加大钻井和完井活动。
李峻 编译自 世界石油
原文如下：
Analyst sees Permian basin output fully recover from COVID shutdown by 2022
The Permian basin, the largest oil producing basin in the US, was the most affected play in the country during the COVID-19 pandemic times. However, production of crude oil and natural gas from this play is likely to exceed the pre-pandemic levels by 2022 amid market recovery from the pandemic, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
According to GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Permian Basin in the US, 2021 – Oil and Gas Shale Market Analysis and Outlook to 2025’, the Permian Basin is producing about 4.6 million barrels of oil per day (mmbd) at present and is projected to reach over 4.9 mmbd of crude oil production by mid-2022, which surpasses pre-pandemic production of 4.8 mmbd in February 2020.
Svetlana Doh, Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Production in the Permian Basin peaked in December 2019 and the upswing continued during Q1 2020. Since then, however, it started tapering off due to the global ‘demand crash’ caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. The ease of restrictions and travel bans during H1 2021 have improved the demand prospects, encouraging production activities in the basin.”
However, steady production growth along with positive investment outlook has set the expectation of production reaching to the pre-pandemic levels by 2022 after recovering completely.
Ms Doh concludes: “Despite West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price rebounding to the pre-pandemic levels, rigs are still slow in catching up. Permian Basin rig count dropped to its lowest point in August 2020 at 117 rigs. Since September 2020, the basin has seen a slow increase in rig count, about 7%. As of June 2021, there were 235 rigs operating in the Permian Basin compared to only 135 rigs a year ago in June 2020. GlobalData expects oil and gas companies to refocus on their core assets in the Permian Basin and ramp up the drilling and completion activities.
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