据ICIS-MRC网站8月4日莫斯科报道，根据标准普尔全球报告称，英国石油公司8月3日将其2025年油价预期上调5美元/桶至60美元/桶，以反映预期的供应约束，同时承诺在第二季度与维护相关的暴跌后，其自身产量将恢复。
这家石油公司在第二季度业绩报告中，谈到了行业环境的“改善前景”，并表示其自身的表现是“有弹性的”，尽管其上游石油生产和运营部门的产量同比下降近25%，达到125万桶/日石油当量。其上游产量下滑被该公司专注于液化天然气和低碳能源部门以及俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）更稳定的产量所抵消，英国石油公司持有该公司近20%的股份。
英国石油表示，由于维修工作已经完成，第三季度的产量应该会提高。近几个月来，维修工作阻碍了许多主要生产商的生产，同时重要的新项目也在增加。
该公司补充称，预计印度、埃及、安哥拉和美国墨西哥湾的四个主要项目将在第二季度启动，从而提振产量。
据英国石油表示，石油市场正在重新平衡，全球库存应在2022年上半年恢复到历史水平。因此，其提出了新的布伦特原油价格假设，将2025年的预测上调至60美元/桶，将2030年的预测维持在60美元/桶，但将2040年的预测从60美元/桶下调至55美元/桶，以反映向低碳能源转型的加速。BP还将2050年的油价预期从50美元/桶下调至45美元/桶。
BP称，在下游，该公司努力利用第二季度利润率的广泛改善，在需求强劲和北美重质原油差异扩大的支持下，预计炼油利润率将略有提高。
郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC
原文如下：
BP increases oil price assumptions by USD5/b and promises output recovery following 25%-slump in Q2 2021
BP raised Aug. 3 its 2025 oil price assumption by USD5/b to USD60/b to reflect an expected supply constraint, while promising a recovery in its own production volumes following a maintenance-related slump in the second quarter, reported S&P Global.
In its Q2 results statement, the UK oil company spoke of an "improving outlook" in the industry environment and said its own performance was "resilient," even as production in its upstream oil production and operations unit fell nearly 25% on the year at 1.25 million b/d of oil equivalent. Its upstream production slump was offset by more stable production in the company's LNG-focused gas and low-carbon energy unit and at Rosneft, in which BP holds a near 20% stake.
BP said its third-quarter production should be higher due to the completion of maintenance, which has held back many of the major producers in recent months, as well as the ramp-up of key new projects.
Production is expected to get a boost from the startup of four main projects in Q2, in India, Egypt, Angola and the US Gulf of Mexico, the company added.
BP said the oil market was rebalancing and global stocks should revert to historical levels in the first half of 2022. It consequently set out new Brent oil price assumptions, raising its 2025 forecast to USD60/b, maintaining its 2030 forecast at USD60/b, but lowering its 2040 forecast to USD55/b from USD60/b to reflect an acceleration in the transition to low-carbon energy. BP also lowered its 2050 price assumption to USD45/b from USD50/b.
In downstream, where the company struggled to capitalize on broadly improved margins in Q2, "realized refining margins are expected to improve slightly supported by stronger demand and wider North American heavy crude oil differentials," BP said.
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