据今日油价8月2日报道，全球大力减少碳和其他化石燃料排放的努力预计将严重影响对化石燃料的需求，最终将引发“石油需求峰值”。在这种情况下，原油消费将停止增长，然后逐渐收缩，导致价格下跌。许多分析机构和全球石油巨头认为，这种情况可能在2030年发生，甚至可能更早就会到来，正如新冠肺炎疫情的影响所显示的那样。尽管石油需求峰值对全球石油工业造成了长期的威胁，但并没有遏制正在南美洲的大规模石油繁荣。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是全球能源巨头正在加大对非洲石油工业的投资，尤其是圭亚那Surname盆地和巴西近海地区的投资。
如果世界第六大经济体印度能够从新冠肺炎疫情中复苏并恢复经济增长，那么全球石油消费的增长速度将会加快。值得一提的是，全球能源巨头对南美的吸引力越来越大，对阿根廷石油产区的投资稳步增加，此外，哥伦比亚2021年的竞购也引起了关注。但是，巴西近海地区已经成为非洲大陆石油繁荣的焦点。即使在新冠肺炎疫情影响，以及博索纳罗总统和巴西国家石油公司经验丰富的首席执行官罗伯托·卡斯特罗·布兰科之间存在矛盾的情况下，能源投资者仅在最初时期感到担忧，但对巴西至关重要的石油行业来说，几乎没有影响。事实上，巴西未来五年的石油产量增长速度预计将超过除美国和欧佩克以外的任何国家。即使大型石油公司努力实现碳中和，避免被搁置的资产或那些在碳中和世界中开采不经济的石油储备所拖累，这种情况也会发生。
正是巴西的近海超深水盐下油田吸引了外国能源巨头的极大兴趣，过去10年里，巴西的盈亏平衡价格一直在稳步下跌，成为全球成本最低的油田之一。业内分析师估计，巴西的近海油气项目在35美元/桶的低油价下实现了盈亏平衡，而运营成本预计将进一步下降，可能会低于30美元/桶。2020年4月初，在由俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯酝酿的价格战和新冠肺炎疫情引发的2020年油价暴跌达到顶峰时，巴西国家石油公司声称，公司整体盈亏平衡价格为每桶21美元。值得注意的是，巴西国家石油公司继续报告了令人印象深刻的石油生产总成本，2021年第一季度的石油生产成本仅为32美元/桶。再加上该公司盐下油田2.70美元/桶的低开采成本，突显出巴西近海石油行业的盈利能力。博尔索纳罗政府发起的改革，包括对加强私有化的关注，大大提高了在巴西境外投资的吸引力。这些立法修正案增加了竞争，减少了监管限制，并为外国能源公司提供了更多的进入盐下石油盆地的机会，这也将有助于压低盈亏平衡价格，进一步增强巴西对外国能源公司的吸引力。
因此，大型石油公司纷纷涌入拉丁美洲最大的石油生产国投资，特别是在油价自2020年3月油价暴跌以来有所回升之后，国际布伦特基准原油自2021年初以来上涨了49%。巴西油气监管机构国家石油管理局（ANP）在2021年1月预测，到2021年，流入石油勘探和生产活动的投资将达到惊人的130亿美元。监管机构认为，这将为今年45口勘探井的钻探提供资金，其中19口将在巴西近海地区，主要位于高产的低成本盐下油田。全球石油巨头埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)宣布，将优先在该地区进行短期资本支出，因为该公司认为，这些资产有可能在其投资组合中产生最强劲的回报，这突显了投资巴西近海资产的吸引力。埃克森美孚及其合作伙伴挪威国家石油公司（Equinor）和葡萄牙石油公司(Petrogal)承诺投资总计80亿美元，开发巴西桑托斯盆地海上超深水Bacalhau油田。埃克森美孚持有该项目40%的股份，另外40%的股份由挪国油持有，挪国油也是该项目的运营商，剩余的20%由葡萄牙石油公司持有。该财团预计，该油田的可采资源可达20亿桶，将在2024年首次生产石油。Bacalhau是一个特别有吸引力的开发资产，因为该财团声称其低污染低硫轻质原油的碳含量接近全球平均水平的一半。
为了吸引更多的外国能源投资，ANP正在拍卖Potiguar、Campos、Santos和Pelotas近海盆地的92个勘探和生产特许权。值得一提的是，因为新冠肺炎疫情，巴西推迟了2021年10月的招标。这些资产将进一步推动投资，并最终推动该地区的石油产量增长，使其成为世界上最热门的近海勘探区块，还将推动全球非欧佩克国家和美国的石油产量增长。尽管大型石油公司正在发达地区出售成本较高的老旧石油资产，但它们正加大对巴西迅速扩张的近海石油繁荣的投资。有利的立法、较低的盈亏平衡价格和高质量低排放轻质和中轻质原油，使巴西成为石油巨头眼中一个极具吸引力的目的地，即使当前是一个发达国家正在不断推动经济脱碳的世界。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Not Even The Peak Oil Threat Can Slow Brazil's Oil Boom
The global push to substantially reduce carbon and other fossil fuel emissions is expected to sharply impact demand for fossil fuels. It will eventually trigger a phenomenon known as peak oil demand, where crude oil consumption will cease growing, flat line, and then progressively contract causing prices to fall. A raft of analytical agencies and global oil supermajors believe that it could occur by 2030, or potentially even earlier as fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has indicated. While peak oil demand poses an ominous long-term threat to the global petroleum industry it has not crimped the massive oil boom underway in South America. If anything, global energy supermajors are ratcheting up their investment in the continent’s petroleum industry, particularly the Guyana-Surname Basin and offshore Brazil.
If India, the world’s sixth-largest economy, can recover from the coronavirus pandemic and return to growth then the rate at which global petroleum consumption is growing will accelerate. Global energy supermajors are increasingly attracted to South America, with investment in Argentina’s oil patch steadily ratcheting up and Colombia’s 2021 bid round gaining attention. But it is offshore Brazil that has become the focal point of the continent’s oil boom. Even the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and a spat between President Bolsonaro and Petrobras’ highly experienced CEO Roberto Castello Branco, which initially alarmed energy investors, have had little if any material on Brazil’s economically crucial oil industry. In fact, Brazil’s oil output over the next five years is expected to grow at a greater rate than any other nation except the U.S. and those comprising OPEC. This will occur even with big oil pushing to make operations carbon neutral and avoid being burdened with stranded assets, or those petroleum reserves which are uneconomic to exploit in a carbon-neutral world.
It is Brazil’s offshore ultra-deepwater pre-salt oilfields that are attracting considerable interest from foreign energy majors, with breakeven prices that have been steadily falling over the last decade to be some of the lowest globally. Industry analysts estimate offshore projects in Brazil are breaking even at a low $35 per barrel, which with operational costs tipped to fall should fall further, potentially below $30 a barrel. In early April 2020, at the height of the 2020 oil price collapse, triggered by Russia and Saudi Arabia’s brewing price war and the coronavirus pandemic, Petrobras claimed to be operating with a companywide breakeven price of $21 per barrel. Brazil’s national oil company continues to report an impressive total cost of oil produced, which for the first quarter of 2021 was a low $32 per barrel. That, in conjunction with a very low lifting cost of $2.70 per barrel for Petrobras’ pre-salt oilfields, underscores the profitability of Brazil’s offshore oil industry. The attractiveness of investing in offshore Brazil was significantly enhanced by the reforms initiated by the Bolsonaro administration, including a focus on increased privatization. Those legislative amendments have increased competition, reduced regulatory restrictions and provided greater access to the pre-salt oil basins for foreign energy companies. This will also assist with driving breakeven prices lower, further enhancing Brazil’s attractiveness for foreign energy companies.
As a result, big oil is flocking to invest in Latin America’s largest oil producer, particularly after oil prices have recovered since the March 2020 oil price collapse with the international Brent benchmark up by 49% since the start of 2021. Brazil’s hydrocarbon regulator, the National Petroleum Agency (ANP – Portuguese initials) forecast in January 2021 that investment inflows into petroleum exploration and production activities would reach an impressive $13 billion during 2021. This the regulator believes will fund the drilling of 45 exploration wells this year, with 19 slated for offshore Brazil, primarily in the prolific low-cost pre-salt oil basins. The attractiveness of investing in offshore Brazil is underscored by global oil supermajor ExxonMobil announcing that it was prioritizing the region for near-term capital spending because it believes those assets have the potential to generate some of the strongest returns in its portfolio. That commitment is demonstrated by Exxon and its partners Equinor and Petrogal committing to invest a combined $8 billion to develop the ultra-deepwater Bacalhau oil discovery in Brazil’s offshore Santos Basin. Exxon holds a 40% interest in the project with another 40% controlled by Equinor, which is also the operator, and the remaining 20% is owned by Petrogal. The consortium expects the oilfield, which is estimated to contain recoverable resources of up to two billion barrels of oil equivalent, will produce first oil by 2024. Bacalhau is a particularly attractive asset to develop because of the low contaminant sweet light crude oil which the consortium claims possesses a carbon content of nearly half the global average.
To draw further foreign energy investment, the ANP is auctioning 92 exploration and production concessions in the Potiguar, Campos, Santos, and Pelotas offshore basins in Brazil’s pandemic postponed October 2021 bid round. This will further boost investment and ultimately petroleum output in what is shaping up to be one of the world’s hottest offshore jurisdictions, which will lead to global non-OPEC and U.S. oil production growth. While big oil is selling higher-cost aging petroleum assets in developed regions it is ramping up investment in Brazil’s rapidly expanding offshore oil boom. A combination of favorable legislation, low breakeven prices, and high-quality low emission sweet light and medium crude oil makes Brazil an extremely attractive destination for big oil even in a world where developed nations are pushing the decarbonization of their economies.
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