据能源世界网7月31日伦敦报道,根据路透社(Reuters)的一项调查发现,7月欧佩克石油产量升至2020年4月以来的最高水平,由于该组织根据与盟国达成的协议进一步放松了产量限制,同时最大出口国沙特阿拉伯逐步取消了自愿减产。
根据调查发现,欧佩克的石油日产量为2,672万桶,较6月的预估增加61万桶。自2020年6月以来,除2月外,每个月的产量都在增长。
随着需求和经济的复苏,欧佩克及其盟国(即欧佩克+)一直在解除2020年4月达成的创纪录的减产协议。随着油价升至两年半以来的最高水平,OPEC+本月决定从8月份开始进一步增产。
德国商业银行(Commerzbank)的卡斯滕·弗里奇(Carsten Fritsch)表示,多数预测仍预计今年下半年需求将强劲增长。换句话说,我们很容易相信,石油市场已经学会了应对病毒。
OPEC+协议允许欧佩克7月日产量较6月增加36万桶,而沙特阿拉伯承诺增加40万桶日产量,作为取消2月、3月和4月自愿减产100万桶计划的最后一步。
根据调查发现,欧佩克13个成员国的表现略低于预期的月度环比增长。这些成员国对减产承诺的遵守度有所下降,但该集团的产量仍低于最新协议要求的水平。
调查发现,欧佩克履行减产承诺的比例为115%,而6月份修正后的比例为118%。
沙特的提振
沙特阿拉伯在7月提供了最大的增幅,达到了46万桶/天,作为7月1日OPEC+增产计划的一部分,沙特进一步解除了其自愿减产并提高了产量。
第二大增幅来自阿拉伯联合酋长国,按照新的配额增加了4万桶/天。根据调查发现,科威特和尼日利亚的日产量各增加3万桶,而欧佩克第二大产油国伊拉克的日产量小幅增加2万桶。
路透社的调查旨在跟踪市场供应情况,其依据是外部来源、Refinitiv Eikon流动数据、来自石油物流和Kpler等油轮跟踪公司的信息,以及石油公司、欧佩克和咨询公司提供的信息。
郝芬 译自 能源世界网
原文如下:
OPEC July oil output hits 15-month high as demand recovers, survey shows
OPEC oil output rose in July to its highest since April 2020, a Reuters survey found, as the group further eased production curbs under a pact with its allies and top exporter Saudi Arabia phased out a voluntary supply cut.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 26.72 million barrels per day (bpd), the survey found, up 610,000 bpd from June's revised estimate. Output has risen every month since June 2020 apart from in February.
OPEC and allies, known as OPEC+, have been unwinding record output cuts agreed in April 2020, as demand and the economy recover. With oil prices rising to a 2 1/2-year high, OPEC+ decided this month on further hikes from August.
"Most forecasts are still predicting robust growth in demand in the second half of the year," said Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank. "It is easy to believe that the oil market has learnt to live with the virus, in other words."
The OPEC+ agreement allows for a 360,000 bpd increase in OPEC output in July versus June, while Saudi Arabia had pledged to add 400,000 bpd as the final step in a plan to unwind a 1 million bpd voluntary cut it made in February, March and April.
The 13-member OPEC has slightly under-delivered on the expected month-on-month rise, the survey found. Members' adherence to pledged cuts declined but the group was still pumping less than called for under the latest deal.
OPEC compliance with pledged cuts was 115%, the survey found, versus a revised 118% in June.
SAUDI BOOST
Saudi Arabia delivered the biggest increase in July of 460,000 bpd, as it further unwound its voluntary cut and raised output as part of the July 1 OPEC+ boost.
The second-biggest came from the United Arab Emirates, which added 40,000 bpd in line with its new quota. Kuwait and Nigeria each added 30,000 bpd, the survey found, while output in OPEC's No. 2 producer Iraq edged up by 20,000 bpd.
The Reuters survey aims to track supply to the market and is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from tanker trackers such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.
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