据油价网2021年7月27日报道，全球炼油工业还没有从新冠肺炎疫情大流行的影响中恢复过来，但它已经面临能源转型的长期巨大挑战。
未来15年，全球燃料需求可能会下降，导致炼油市场产能过剩、炼油利润率下降和利用率降低。
不同地区的前景各不相同。 不过，麦肯锡公司在本月发布的《2035年全球下游展望》报告中说，总体而言，由于需求下降和不必要的全球产能高企，炼油利润面临下行压力，一些效率较低的炼油厂将不得不关闭。
麦肯锡公司的展望报告在三种不同的政策情景下考察了全球液体需求，以及需求对全球和不同地区炼油厂的影响。 麦肯锡公司指出，在一些地区，炼油工业可能会萎缩，但仍将是一个很大的行业，到本世纪30年代可能会保持2019年运营能力的90%。
就像从COVID-19中恢复一样，下游行业的长期前景将因情景和地区而异。 总会有赢家和输家。
参考案例——500万桶/天的炼油厂关闭，价值缩水35%
麦肯锡公司的参考案例，《能源转型》认为，到2035年前，欧洲和美国可能需要永久关闭每天多达500万桶的炼油产能。在这个案例中，未来的政策将遵循当前的模式。 麦肯锡公司表示，大约一半的关闭项目已经宣布。
在麦肯锡公司的能源转型方案中，全球液体需求将在2029年达到峰值，达到1.04亿桶/天，道路运输燃料需求将在2023年达到峰值。 一旦炼油厂实现合理化，炼油利润率将恢复，但2031-2035年美国和欧洲的炼油利润率仍将比近期历史水平低约2美元/桶。 如果能源和气候政策遵循当前模式，到本世纪30年代，全球炼油价值将较2015-19年的水平下降36%，2031-35年的全球平均水平预计将为1000亿美元。 麦肯锡公司表示，在本世纪30年代，只有亚洲和中东的炼油工业价值将出现增长。
这一评估与其他能源专家和顾问此前的估计基本一致。他们认为，亚洲和中东地区的炼油厂，尤其是较新的综合性炼油企业，将击败那些预计在能源转型中燃料需求弹性较差的国家的老炼油厂。
伍德麦肯兹7月稍早曾表示，如果全球炼油工业不能看到广泛的进一步合理化，炼油工业的产能利用率可能永远无法回到80%的产能利用率。
当前的危机对欧洲和亚洲效率较低的小型炼油厂构成了生死攸关的威胁，这些炼油厂甚至在疫情前就在艰难地实现盈利。 即使是石油巨头也承认，由于炼油利润率下降、地区竞争激烈以及长期道路燃料需求下降的预期，一些炼油厂已经永远失去了经济效益。 例如，埃克森美孚公司和英国石油公司在短短几个月内先后宣布关闭各自在澳大利亚的炼油厂。 他们现在计划将这些炼油厂改造成燃料进口终端。
麦肯锡公司称，虽然欧洲和美国短期内可能会更快地从疫情影响中恢复过来，但从长期来看，亚洲炼油企业将更具韧性。 从整体上看，参考案例发现，炼油工业仍将是一个大行业，但其盈利能力将会下降。
推迟转型将使炼油厂价值达到1810亿美元
麦肯锡公司表示，如果COVID - 19带来的经济复苏优先于减排，且能源转型放缓，全球液体需求将持续增长至2035年，轻质石油产品需求将在2029年达到峰值。
炼油厂利用率将保持强劲，亚洲和中东地区甚至将增加130万桶/天的炼油产能。 2031-2035年，亚洲和中东地区的炼油工业价值也将增长16%，达到全球平均1810亿美元。
加速转型将导致1600万桶/天的炼油厂关闭
麦肯锡公司的分析报告显示，如果这个转型加速，全球液体需求将在2024年达到1.01亿桶/天的峰值，而轻质石油产品需求将永远无法恢复到2019年的水平。 在这种情况下，到2035年前，所有市场，特别是欧洲和美国，将需要在未宣布的情况下关闭多达1600万桶/天的炼油能力。 在这种情况下，与2015-2019年的水平相比，到本世纪30年代，炼油工业的价值将下降到74%，2031-2035年的全球平均水平预计将在400亿美元。
实际情况可能会接近参考案例，或者是麦肯锡公司研究的两三个案例的结合。
无论如何，有些事情是肯定的——炼油商需要时间来克服COVID-19的冲击。 与此同时，他们将为能源转型的长期影响做好准备。 炼油厂应该做好准备，适应长期炼油利润率下降、行业合理化、数百万桶/天产能关闭和长期利润下降。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Refiners Face Huge Long-Term Challenges
The global refining industry has not recovered yet from the impact of the pandemic, but it is already facing longer-term challenges with the energy transition.
Over the next decade and a half, global fuel demand will likely decline, leading to an overcapacity in the refining market, lower margins, and lower utilization.
The outlook varies across regions. Generally speaking, however, some less efficient refineries will have to close because of downward pressure on profits amid lower demand and unnecessary high global capacity, McKinsey & Company said in its report ‘Global downstream outlook to 2035’ published this month.
The outlook examines global liquids demand in three different policy scenarios and the impact that demand would have on refiners globally and in various regions. The refining industry is likely to shrink in some regions, but it will still remain a large sector that would likely keep in the 2030s as much as 90 percent of its 2019 operating capacity, McKinsey & Company noted.
Just as with the recovery from COVID-19, the long-term prospects of the downstream sector will vary across scenarios and regions. There will be winners and losers.
Reference Case – 5 Million Bpd Refinery Closures, 35% Shrinking Value
McKinsey’s reference case, Energy Transition, in which future policies will follow current patterns, finds that Europe and the U.S. may need to shut down permanently as much as 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of capacity by 2035. Roughly half of those closures have already been announced, the company said.
In McKinsey’s Energy Transition scenario, global liquids demand peaks in 2029 at 104 million bpd, with road transport fuels peaking in 2023. Refining margins are set to recover once refinery rationalization occurs, but U.S. and European margins will be around $2 a barrel lower in 2031–2035 than in recent history. If energy and climate policies follow current patterns, the value of global refining is set to drop by 36 percent from 2015–19 levels by the 2030s, with the 2031–35 global average at $100 billion. During the 2030s, only Asia and the Middle East will see its refining industry grow in value, according to McKinsey.
This assessment is generally in line with previous estimates from other energy experts and consultants who say that Asia and the Middle East, especially the newer integrated refining complexes, will beat older refineries in countries where fuel demand is expected to be less resilient in the energy transition.
If the global refinery industry doesn’t see extensive further rationalization, the sector may never return to 80 percent capacity utilization, Wood MacKenzie said earlier this month.
The current crisis is an existential threat to smaller and less efficient refineries in Europe and Asia that were struggling to turn profits even before the pandemic. Even oil majors acknowledge that some sites have become permanently uneconomical amid depressed refining margins, fierce regional competition, and expectations of declining road fuel demand in the long term. For example, ExxonMobil and BP announced in the span of just a few months closures of their respective refineries in Australia. They now plan to convert them into fuel import terminals.
According to McKinsey, while Europe and the U.S. could recover faster from the pandemic impact in the short term, Asia’s refiners will be more resilient in the long term. As a whole, the reference case found that the industry will remain a large one, but it will become less profitable.
Delayed Transition To Grow Refinery Value To $181 Billion
If economic recovery from COVID takes precedence over emissions reduction and the energy transition slows down, global liquids demand will continue to grow through 2035, with light product demand peaking in 2029, McKinsey says.
Utilization will remain strong, and Asia and the Middle East will even add 1.3 million bpd of capacity. Asia and the Middle East will also drive a 16 percent rise in value in the refining industry to a global average of $181 billion in 2031–2035.
Accelerated Transition To Lead To 16 Million Bpd Refinery Closures
If the transition accelerates, it would bring about peak global liquids demand in 2024 at 101 million bpd, while light product demand will never recover to 2019 levels, McKinsey’s analysis shows. In this case, all markets, especially Europe and the United States, would require as much as 16 million bpd of unannounced closures by 2035. In this case, the value of the refining industry would plunge in the 2030s to 74 percent compared with 2015–2019 levels, at $40 billion global average in 2031–2035.
The actual scenario that will unfold could be close to the reference case or a combination of two or three of those examined by McKinsey.
At any rate, some things are certain—refiners will take time to overcome the COVID-19 shock. At the same time, they will be bracing for the long-term impact of the energy transition. Refiners should be ready to adapt to lower long-term refining margins, industry rationalization with millions of bpd of capacity closures, and a long-term decline in profits.
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