据管道&天然气杂志网12月10日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)在2021年12月的短期能源展望(STEO)中预测，到2022年12月，美国干天然气产量将从2021年10月的951亿立方英尺/天增加到975亿立方英尺/天，增加24亿立方英尺/天(增幅2.5%)。
如果实现，2022年12月的预测产量水平将超过2019年11月创下的972亿立方英尺/天的历史纪录。2019年11月的纪录是在新冠疫情宣布之前，以及在与疫情相关的需求下降导致产量在2020年5月降至873亿立方英尺/天的低点之前创下的。自2020年10月以来，干天然气产量普遍上升。2021年天然气产量保持在920亿立方英尺/天以上，除了2月份，冬季风暴严重影响了得克萨斯州的石油和天然气产量。
天然气产量的预测受新钻的天然气导向井的天然气产量、现有井的天然气产量以及石油生产产生的伴生天然气量的预期影响。2019-2020 年，天然气导向钻机（主要在含天然气地层中钻探的钻机）数量有所减少。2020 年8月，钻机数量处于自1987年（可用数据的最早年份）以来的最低月平均值。自2020年8月以来，天然气导向钻机数量普遍增加，2021年11月平均为102台，但仍比2019年平均每月数量低约40%。
根据我们的钻井产能报告，在海恩斯维尔地区和阿巴拉契亚盆地，由于钻井活动和每口井产量的增加，我们预计今年12月干天然气产量将创下新高。伴生气产量也有所增加，因为生产商已经完成了已钻但未完井(DUC)的库存，该库存在2020年6月达到顶峰。根据我们12月的STEO预测，天然气导向钻机数量和伴生天然气产量的增加将导致干天然气产量的增加。
郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网
原文如下：
EIA Forecasts US Natural Gas Production Will Increase in 2022
In the December 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will increase from 95.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in October 2021 to 97.5 Bcf/d by December 2022, an increase of 2.4 Bcf/d (2.5%).
If realized, the December 2022 forecast production level will exceed the previous record of 97.2 Bcf/d, which was set in November 2019. The November 2019 record was set before COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, and before the COVID-19-associated declines in demand resulted in production declines to a low of 87.3 Bcf/d in May 2020. Dry natural gas production has generally risen since October 2020. Natural gas production remained above 92.0 Bcf/d in 2021, except in February, when a winter storm substantially affected oil and natural gas production in Texas.
The forecast for natural gas production is influenced by expectations for natural gas production from newly drilled gas-directed wells, natural gas production from existing wells, and the amount of associated natural gas resulting from oil production. The number of natural gas-directed rigs—rigs drilling primarily in natural gas-bearing formations—decreased throughout 2019 and into 2020. In August 2020, the rig count was at its lowest monthly average since 1987 (the earliest year of available data). Since August 2020, the natural gas-directed rig count has generally increased, averaging 102 rigs in November 2021, but remains about 40% lower than the average monthly count in 2019.
In both the Haynesville region and the Appalachian Basin, according to our Drilling Productivity Report, we expect dry natural gas production will set new highs this December as a result of both increased drilling activity and output per well. Associated natural gas production also increased because producers have been completing wells from their inventories of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells, which peaked in June 2020. Increases in both the number of natural gas-directed rigs and in associated natural gas production are expected to result in growing dry natural gas production in our December STEO forecast.
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