• 二叠纪的大型企业正在寻求利用规模经济
• 大型钻探公司希望抓住这个机会，在美国最大的石油盆地扩大业务
据油价网12月11日报道，近期油价大幅波动将促使二叠纪盆地企业整合。
2015年，沙特阿拉伯为应对页岩气产量的增长而开足马力，导致油价暴跌，美国页岩气行业首次出现了整合热潮。从那以后，整合一直在继续，尽管不均衡。
但其即将获得另外的刺激。
据业内高管称，最近价格波动加剧将促使更多公司进行整合，尤其是二叠纪盆地——页岩气中的明星。根据《休斯敦纪事报》本周报道称，进一步整合的另一个原因是，在可再生能源的推动下，未来化石燃料将面临不确定性。
事实上，我们有理由担心。随着疫情的持续、缺乏大规模疫苗接种产生群体免疫的证据以及新的奥密克戎变种的出现，价格已经过度波动，这使得群体免疫问题变得毫无意义。事实上，业界现在开始怀疑价格可能上涨得太高。
先锋自然资源公司的斯科特谢菲尔德在世界石油大会上接受路透社采访时表示，我担心油价会涨得太高，超过每桶100美元。我希望它在未来几年里稳定在80美元到100美元之间。我们需要石油市场的稳定。
整合是实现稳定的一种方式，因为一个领域的参与者会更少，因此，对正确的石油生产水平的不同看法也会更少。 例如，IHS Markit 今年早些时候的研究表明，尽管大公司不愿恢复增长战略，但美国页岩油产量仍在上升。事实证明，由于没有股东返还现金的小型私人独立公司，产量正在上升。
今年早些时候被康纳和石油公司（Conoco）收购的康乔资源公司（Concho Resources）前首席执行官蒂姆·里奇 (Tim Leach) 表示，我们行业的整合是一股不会放缓的力量。《休斯敦纪事报》援引他的话称，我认为我们的行业需要整合。拥有规模是有好处的。
这些好处包括利用规模经济，甚至在油价较低的情况下变得更具竞争力，尽管似乎很少有人预计油价会很快下跌。《chronon》的Paul Takahashi指出，大公司也更容易从银行获得资金，不过这种情况可能很快就会改变，因为ESG对资金短缺的油气项目的贷款机构施加了更大压力。
除了这些好处，通过收购实现增长时好时坏，而现在恰好是一个更好的时机:油价上涨缓解了公司的大部分债务，根据先锋公司的谢菲尔德的说法，这“给了你选择”。
他告诉《休斯敦纪事报》称，这就是为什么我们在过去18个月里利用市场优势进行了两次大规模收购。我认为在未来三到五年内，你将迎来另一个整合周期。
根据雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）的数据显示，美国页岩气行业明年的投资总额预计将达到184亿美元。这比今年的支出高出19.4%。但是，增加的支出中有一半是由于成本上涨，这将占到2022年总开支的92亿美元。
这是页岩地区进行并购的又一个原因，尤其是鉴于通胀前景仍然相当黯淡，特别是美联储预计将在明年3月结束其刺激计划，并开始提高利率，这将是廉价融资结束的开始。
另一方面，这些预期的开发也可能导致页岩地区收购热潮的放缓。例如，据《纪事报》本周报道，因潜在买家的收购目标已不复存在，Enverus预计收购速度将放缓。公司估值也随着石油价格的上涨而上升，而且二叠纪仍被认为是页岩区中最具影响力的地方，拥有该地区的钻井公司将是估值涨幅最大的公司。
在这种情况下，潜在买家可以做两件事：休息一下，看看估值下一步会走向何方，或者在行业的长期不确定性仍然悬而未决的情况下投入更多资金进行收购。
如果绿色转型加快步伐，观望的方法可以为买家节省资金并减少对可能陷入困境的资产的敞口。 或者，如果看涨油价的预测者是对的，这可能会让他们错过再也不会像现在这样诱人的机会。
尽管绿色推动，但在担心新石油生产投资不足的时候，挥霍的方法可能成本高昂，但可以让买家获得更大的资源基础。 这不是一个容易做出的选择，尤其是在持续的疫情期间，但这可能是一些页岩公司需要做出的选择。
郝芬 译自 油价网
原文如下：
Jittery Oil Market Could Trigger Consolidation In The Permian
.The recent jump in oil price volatility will motivate companies to consolidate
.Large players in the Permian are looking to leverage economies of scale
.Large drillers look to seize the opportunity to expand their footprint in America’s largest oil basin
The U.S. shale industry first went on a consolidation spree back in 2015 when prices tanked after Saudi Arabia turned the taps on full in response to growing shale output. Since then, the consolidation has continued, although unevenly.
But it is about to get an additional spur.
According to industry executives, the recent jump in price volatility will motivate more companies to consolidate, especially in the Permian—the star among the shale plays. Another reason for further consolidation is the uncertainty about the future fossil fuels will have amid the renewable energy drive, the Houston Chronicle reported this week.
Indeed, there is reason to worry. Prices are already excessively volatile with the continuing pandemic, the absence of evidence that mass vaccination is creating herd immunity, and the emergence of the new Omicron variant, which has rendered the herd immunity question moot. In fact, the industry is now beginning to suspect that prices could rise too high.
"I'm worried that it may get too high, above $100 (per barrel)," Pioneer Natural Resources' Scott Sheffield told Reuters in an interview at the World Petroleum Congress. "I hope it stabilizes between a $80 to $100 range over the next several years. We need stability in the oil markets."
Consolidation is one way to achieve stability, as you would have fewer players in a field and, as a consequence, fewer differing views on what the right level of oil production is. To illustrate, research from IHS Markit earlier this year indicated that U.S. shale oil production was on the rise despite large companies' reluctance to return to a growth strategy. It turned out production was rising thanks to small private independents that had no shareholders to return cash to.
"Consolidation of our industry is a force that is not going to slow down," said Tim Leach, former chief executive of Concho Resources, which Conoco acquired earlier this year. "I think our industry needs to be consolidated. There are benefits to having size and scale," he added, as quoted by the Houston Chronicle.
These benefits include leveraging economies of scale and becoming more competitive even at lower oil prices, although few seem to be expecting lower prices anytime soon. Larger companies can also more easily get funding from banks, Chron's Paul Takahashi notes, although this may be changing before too long as ESG pressure increases on lenders to cash-starve oil and gas projects.
Besides these benefits, there are better and worse times to grow through acquisitions and now happens to be a better time: the oil price rally relieved companies of much of their debt and this, according to Pioneer's Sheffield, "gives you options."
"That's why we took advantage of the marketplace in the last 18 months to make two large acquisitions. I think you'll have another cycle of consolidation over the next three to five years," he told the Houston Chronicle.
The U.S. shale industry is projected to spend a combined $18.4 billion next year, according to Rystad Energy. That's 19.4 percent more than what it spent this year. However, half of the increased expenditure will be due to cost inflation, which will account for as much as $9.2 billion of the combined 2022 spending bill.
That's one more reason for mergers and acquisitions in the shale patch, especially since the outlook on inflation remains quite gloomy, especially with the Federal Reserve seen to end its stimulus program by March next year and start hiking interest rates, which will be the beginning of the end of cheap financing.
These expected developments, on the other hand, could also lead to a slowdown in the acquisition spree in the shale patch. Enverus, for example, expects a slowdown because potential buyers are simply running out of acquisition targets, the Chronicle reported this week. Company valuations are also on the rise along with the price of oil, and with the Permian still considered the sweetest spot in the shale patch, drillers with exposure to it would be the ones with the biggest valuation gains.
In this situation, there are two things potential buyers could do: take a break and wait and see where valuations go next, or put more money into acquisitions with long-term uncertainty still hanging over the head of the industry.
The wait-and-see approach could save buyers money and exposure to assets that may become stranded if the green transition gathers pace. Or it could make them miss opportunities that will never be as sweet again if bullish oil price forecasters are right.
The splurge approach could be costly but give buyers access to a greater resource base at a time when there's worry about underinvestment in new oil production, despite the green push. It is not an easy choice to make, especially amid the ongoing pandemic, but it may be a choice some shale companies need to make.
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