• 沙特阿拉伯日前授出贾富拉大气田的首份大型合同
• 沙特王国的目标是到2030年前成为世界第三大天然气生产国
• 沙特阿拉伯在贾富拉大气田田开采页岩气时面临一系列重大挑战
据美国油价网刊发西蒙·沃特金斯博士文章表示，由于沙特计划在2030年前成为世界上第3大天然气生产国，甚至可能成为一个天然气净出口国，沙特阿拉伯日前授出了贾富拉页岩气盆地的第一份大型合同。贾富拉页岩气盆地据说是除美国以外的世界上最大的页岩气盆地。
这反过来——如果是真实的话——将使沙特阿拉伯能够实现其预期的目标，即国内需求的一半电力来自天然气，另一半电力来自可再生能源，从而实现其2060年温室气体净零排放目标。
然而，正如我在关于全球石油市场的新书中深入分析的那样，沙特阿拉伯过去关于其石油工业的声明一直被高度夸大，因此，沙特阿拉伯有关其天然气和净零项目的评论也应受到怀疑。这再一次证明了这一点——尤其专注于其天然气和净零目标——沙特阿拉伯最近被指游说联合国降低迅速远离化石燃料的必要性。
宽泛的说，沙特阿拉伯贾富拉页岩气盆地地下估计至少蕴藏200万亿标准立方英尺的天然气，盆地覆盖面积约为1.7万平方公里。 主要开发商沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（沙特阿美）预计，贾富拉大气田的天然气日产量将从2024年-2025年的约2亿标准立方英尺增加到2030年前的22亿标准立方英尺的可持续产量。 此外，这个项目预计还将日产4.18亿立方英尺的乙烷和约63万桶的天然气液体和凝析油，用于沙特阿拉伯的石化工业。 据沙特阿美称，该公司的页岩气项目将取代大约50万桶的原油日产量，其中贾富拉开发项目的最高日产量约为30万桶。 除了日前最初授出的100亿美元的合同外，贾富拉开发项目在2030年前还将获得至少580亿美元的投资。
那么，所有这些措施是否能使沙特阿拉伯实现上述既定目标呢? 答案是否定的。首先，无论是从技术角度还是从成本角度来看，在用于沙特阿拉伯页岩气开发的天然气处理厂建成之前，沙特阿拉伯需要将大量海水脱盐，这是一个棘手问题。的确，沙特阿拉伯在钻井行业使用脱盐设备已有多年，但该国的页岩气计划将是另一种情况。沙特阿美最近要求当地和国际公司投标在贾富拉页岩气田建设一个全面的海水淡化厂项目，这就表明了这一点。早些时候的招标要求已被取消，而这一次的招标要求是一个减少20%产能的海水脱盐厂。 这也是一个事实，根据沙特阿美的数据，贾富拉页岩气压裂作业的深度要比美国页岩气压裂作业的深度深得多，沙特页岩气压裂作业的深度在大约9000到10000英尺，而美国页岩气压裂作业的深度在3000到4000英尺，这使得沙特阿拉伯的页岩气压裂过程更加昂贵。沙特阿美的消息人士表示，这可以通过同时开采其他资源(尤其是乙烷)来部分抵消压裂成本，但目前这仍是一个推测。
在硬气体产量方面，还有更多的问题。根据沙特阿美的数据，贾富拉大气田估计有200万亿立方英尺的页岩气储量，这个数字应该考虑到所有其它能源储量的估计。与此同时，沙特阿美的天然气储量估计约为233.8万亿立方英尺，出于本文分析的目的，我们可以在相同的基础上假设同样的情况。沙特阿美计划在2024年 - 2025年投产贾富拉大气田，到2036年前达到日产22亿标准立方英尺的天然气。去年，在没有投产贾富拉大气田的情况下，沙特阿美日产89亿标准立方英尺的天然气。如加上贾富拉大气田，这将使沙特阿美名义天然气日总产量达到111亿标准立方英尺。 然而，至关重要的是，即使目前有89亿标准立方英尺的天然气日产量，除了大量的燃料油和柴油，沙特阿拉伯仍在每天燃烧大约40万桶原油用于发电。
所有其他因素保持相同，10亿立方英尺的天然气相当于16.7万桶石油当量，所以未来的贾富拉大气田的22亿立方英尺的天然气日产量就相当于36.74万桶石油当量或36.74万桶原油。即使沙特阿美已经提高的天然气产量保持稳定，这也不足以覆盖目前沙特阿拉伯用于发电的原油数量(40万桶/天)。 因此，沙特阿拉伯关于转向天然气将对任何净零温室气体排放目标做出有意义的贡献的声明是不真实的。根据美国油价网当时的独家分析，考虑到沙特阿拉伯在达成国际海事组织（IMO）遵守目标方面的双重协议，这一点就更加明显。
而沙特阿拉伯声称自己将成为这样一个页岩气生产大国，甚至有可能成为主要的天然气净出口国，这是怎么回事? 根据独立行业对沙特阿拉伯人口变化和电力需求模式变化的估计，未来15年内，沙特阿拉伯可能日需大约230亿 - 250亿立方英尺的天然气产量，以满足本国的电力和工业需求。相比之下，沙特阿美目前的天然气峰值日产量为89亿立方英尺，加上贾富拉大气田的名义产量也只有111亿立方英尺。 总之，即使贾富拉发现的天然气质量在天然气发现史上是无与伦比的，如果直接从燃烧原油转变为只燃烧天然气，沙特阿拉伯的发电部门仍将处于天然气需求短缺的状态。
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
Is Shale Gas A Gamechanger For Saudi Arabia?
· The first major contracts for Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah field were awarded last week
· The Kingdom aims to become the third-largest natural gas producer in the world by 2030
· Saudi Arabia faces a number of major challenges in exploiting gas from the Jafurah field
The first major contracts for Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah field – supposedly, the biggest shale gas field outside the U.S. – were awarded last week, as the Kingdom aims to become the third largest natural gas producer in the world by 2030, to the point where it could even become a net exporter of gas. This, in turn - if true - would allow Saudi to achieve its supposed aim of producing half of its electricity from gas and half from renewable energy sources in pursuit of its 2060 net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target. However, as analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets, Saudi Arabia’s statements on its oil sector in the past have been highly exaggerated – as without its oil power, the country has no real power at all – and consequently its comments about its gas and net zero projects should also be regarded with scepticism. This was again in evidence - specifically focused on its gas and net zero targets - when Saudi Arabia recently was alleged to have lobbied the United Nations to play down the need to move rapidly away from fossil fuels.
In broad terms, the Jafurah shale gas basin is estimated to have at least 200 trillion standard cubic feet (scf) of gas in place, across an area of some 17,000 square kilometres. Production of natural gas from the site is expected by its lead developer, Saudi Aramco, to increase from around 200 million standard cubic feet per day (scfd) in 2024/25 to a sustainable rate of 2.2 billion scfd of gas by 2030. In addition, the development is also expected to yield 418 million scfd of ethane and around 630,000 barrels per day of gas liquids and condensates, which are earmarked for use in the Kingdom’s petrochemicals sector. According to Aramco, the company’s shale gas programme will replace around 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production, with the Jafurah development accounting for about 300,000 bpd of that at peak production. Over and above the US$10 billion of contracts initially awarded last week, the Jafurah project will see at least another US$58 billion in investment by 2030.
So, will all of this enable Saudi Arabia to achieve its stated targets as above? No, is the short answer. To begin with, there are questions surrounding the sheer volume of seawater that will need to be desalinated before being used in the gas processing plants involved in the Kingdom’s shale gas drive, both from technical and cost perspectives. It is true that the Saudis have been using desalination equipment for many years in the drilling sector but the country’s shale gas initiatives will be of a different order. This was indicated by Aramco’s recent request for bids from local and international companies to build out a full-scale water desalination plant project in the Jafurah shale gas field. An earlier request for bids was cancelled, and the request this time around is for a desalination plant with 20 percent less capacity. It is also a fact that the Jafurah shale gas fracks will occur at much deeper levels than the typically much shallower U.S. equivalents – at around 9,000 to 10,000 feet in the case of Saudi compared to around 3,000 to 4,000 feet in the U.S.’s case – according to Aramco data, making the process a lot more expensive. Aramco sources have stated that this can be offset in part by the other resources concomitantly extracted – notably ethane – but this remains speculative at this point.
All other factors remaining equal, one billion cubic feet of gas equals 0.167 million barrels of oil equivalent, so 2.2 Bcf/d (the future Jafurah output) equals 0.3674 milliobarrels of oil equivalent, or 367,400 barrels. Therefore, the total projected new amount of gas to come from Jafurah is around 367,400 barrels per day, which is not even enough to cover the current amount of oil being (400,000 bpd) burned for power generation in Saudi Arabia, even if Aramco’s already elevated gas production holds steady. Therefore, Saudi’s statements that this move to gas will meaningfully contribute to any net zero greenhouse gas emissions targets are not true. This is even more obvious when factoring in Saudi’s double-dealings over hitting IMO-compliance targets, as exclusively analysed at the time by OilPrice.com.
And what of Saudi’s claims that it will become such a big producer of shale gas that it may even be able to become a major net exporter of gas? based on independent industry estimates on changing Saudi demographics and corollary changing power demand patterns, the Kingdom will probably need gas production of around 23-25 Bcf/d within the next 15 years just to cover its own power and industrial demand, compared to the 11.1 Bcf/d of Aramco’s current peak production added to the notional production from Jafurah. In sum, then, even if the quality of the Jafurah find is unparalleled in the history of gas finds, then Saudi would still be in deficit in its power generation sector if there was a straight switch from crude oil burning to gas-only burning.
In terms of hard gas output numbers as well, there are more questions. According to Aramco’s figures, the Jafurah site has an estimated 200 trillion scf, a figure that should be taken in context of all other Saudi energy reserves estimates, but let us assume that it is true. In the meantime, Aramco has gas reserves supposedly of around 233.8 trillion scf, which for the purposes of this analysis, we may assume the same thing on the same basis. The plan is for Aramco to start production from Jafurah in 2024/25 and to reach 2.2 billion scfd of gas by 2036. Last year – without Jafurah - Aramco produced 8.9 billion scfd of natural gas. This would give a notional total – with Jafurah - of 11.1 Bcf/d. Crucially, however, even with this current 8.9 Bcf/d of gas production in place, Saudi has been burning around 400,000 bpd of oil for power generation (on top of enormous actual volumes of fuel oil and diesel).
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