据世界石油12月17日彭博社报道，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)称，不能排除2023年油价达到每桶100美元的可能性，因为预计供应增加速度将太慢，无法跟上创纪录的需求。
能源研究主管Damien Courvalin表示，尽管该行的基本预测是布伦特原油明年和2023年将维持在85美元左右，但有可能会突破三位数，原因要么是钻井公司的成本上升，要么是意外的供应短缺迫使价格飙升至足以破坏需求的水平。
上述上行风险突显出，即便油价今年已上涨逾40%，高盛仍看好油价的原因。该行认为，由于对奥密克戎相关限制的不必要担忧，近期的抛售过度了。该行预计，一旦资产管理公司明年重新配置资金，投资者将逢低买入。
Courvalin周五在接受记者采访时表示，面对强劲的需求，供应不足。石油价格必须更高才能克服为项目提供资金的更高成本。
最近10美元的下跌相当于将3个月每天需求减少500万桶的石油供应桶量定价。Courvalin表示，这可能是一种过度反应，因为迄今为止，各国政府似乎用更多的测试而不是新的封锁来回应奥密克戎。
他表示，从长远来看，随着投资者选择支持以 ESG 为重点的行业，产出增长正受到上游成本通胀和融资成本增加等挑战的影响。由于能源转型的不确定性及其对燃料使用的影响，对长周期石油项目的投资也有所下降。
他称，目前汽油、柴油和塑料等所有产品的需求都处于创纪录水平，预计2022年和2023年的消费量将达到新高。由于新冠疫情相关的旅行限制，航空燃油的使用将继续滞后，但随着边境重新开放，一些被压抑的旅行需求可能会出现。
需求得到了强劲的政府资本支出支持，这既是为了支持经济从疫情中复苏，也是为了为应对气候变化所需的能源转型提供资金。对收入不平等的更多关注也将支持看好大宗商品，因为较贫穷的人往往会把收入的更大一部分用于商品和能源。
他表示，如果供应无法跟上，而市场需要破坏需求才能达到平衡，那么油价可能会升至每桶110美元。
郝芬 译自 世界石油
原文如下：
Goldman says $100 oil possible as record demand outpaces supply
Oil at $100 a barrel cannot be ruled out in 2023 as supply additions are expected to be too slow to keep up with record demand, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
While the bank’s base forecast is for Brent to stay around $85 next year and 2023, it could breach triple digits through either higher cost inflation for drillers, or if an unexpected supply shortfall forces prices to spike high enough to destroy demand, said Damien Courvalin, head of energy research.
The upside risks underscore why Goldman remains bullish on oil even after prices have rallied more than 40% this year. The bank sees the recent sell-off as overdone on unnecessary concerns about omicron-related restrictions and expects investors to buy the dip once asset managers reallocate money next year.
“There’s insufficient supply in the face of strong demand,” Courvalin said in a call with reporters Friday. “Oil prices have to be higher to overcome the higher cost of capital to fund projects.”
The recent $10 dip is the equivalent of pricing in a loss of 5 million barrels a day of demand for three months. That’s likely an overreaction, Courvalin said, as governments seem to be responding to omicron with more testing than new lockdowns so far.
Longer term, output growth is being hit by challenges including upstream cost inflation and more expensive financing as investors opt to support ESG-focused sectors, he said. Investments in long-cycle oil projects have also dipped due to uncertainties around energy transition and its impact on fuel usage.
Demand for everything from gasoline, diesel and plastics is currently at a record level, with consumption expected to reach new highs in 2022 and 2023, he said. Use of jet fuel will continue to lag due to Covid-related travel restrictions, but some pent-up demand for travel is likely to emerge as borders reopen.
Demand is being supported by strong government capital expenditure, both to support the economic recovery from Covid and to fund the energy transition needed to combat climate change. An increased focus on income inequality will also support commodities, as poorer people tend to spend a higher portion of their income on goods and energy.
Oil prices could go as high as $110 a barrel if supply can’t keep up and the market needs demand destruction in order to balance, he said.
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