据美国彭博新闻社12月15日伦敦报道，由于变异毒株奥密克戎在全球迅速传播，石油预测机构对未来几个月的全球石油需求看法不一。在最新一轮的预测中，石油生产商出人意料地成为了多头。
国际能源署(IEA)、美国能源信息署(EIA)和石油输出国组织(欧佩克)都更新了他们对截至明年年底的石油市场预测。 每个机构都在设法应对最新的冠状病毒奥密克戎毒株的影响，这种毒株在11月底才被发现，已经占英国确诊病例的20%。
一个明显的变化是：上述3个机构对2022年第一季度全球石油需求的预测各不相同。
尽管确证病例数的上升和国际旅行限制已导致IEA和EIA下调了他们对到明年3月份的全球石油消费量的估计，但欧佩克却走了一条截然不同的道路。欧佩克对当前季度的预测与一个月前发布的预测持平，而对2022年开始的预测被向上修正了110万桶/日。
步调不一致
欧佩克认为，奥密克戎变异株对全球石油需求的影响“将是温和和短暂的，因为世界将更好地应对疫情及其相关挑战。”
欧佩克认为，“尽管目前存在通货膨胀和供应链瓶颈，持续的贸易问题以及它们对工业和运输燃料需求的影响，但发达经济体和新兴经济体的经济前景都很稳定。”
尽管欧佩克对明年第一季度全球石油需求水平的预测大幅上升，但这实际上是受欧佩克一年前(2021年前3个月)对需求水平评估的变化推动的。
亚洲驱动需求
由于亚洲大国和除印度以外的其它非经合组织亚洲国家的消费预期上调，再加上稳定的同比增长水平，上述数据被向上修正，导致明年年初的需求出现跃升。
欧佩克对2022年第一季度全球石油需求增长的预测为每天530万桶，现在非常接近EIA预测的534万桶。 虽然IEA将同期的全球每天石油需求预期下调了55万桶，但把今年第一季度的日均需求预期下调了70万桶，降幅更大。 因此，从明年1月份开始的3个月的需求同比增长预测值实际上有所提高。
只有IEA下调了其对2022年第一季度全球石油需求水平和同比增长的预期。 由于航班时刻表修改以及预订被取消，IEA把明年前三个月全球石油需求总量的预测每天削减63万桶，其中航空燃油/煤油日需求量减少近60万桶。
鉴于英国政府周二决定取消对来自非洲南部11个国家的旅行者的隔离要求，这种观点可能开始显得过于悲观。英国政府现在认为，这一举措对阻止奥密克戎病毒变体的传播无效。 这一180度的转变可能会导致假期期间航班数量的增加。
李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社
原文如下：
OPEC, EIA, IEA each have different 2022 oil demand forecasts
Oil forecasters have parted company on their views about demand in the coming months, as the omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus spreads rapidly around the world. And producers have emerged as the surprising bulls in the latest round of estimates.
The International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have all updated their oil market forecasts for the period to the end of next year. Each is trying to get to grips with the impact of the latest coronavirus strain, identified only in late November and already accounting for 20% of confirmed cases in England.
One change stands out: their view of oil demand in the first quarter of 2022.
While rising case numbers and international travel restrictions have led the IEA and EIA to cut their estimates of consumption through March, OPEC is on a very different path. Its forecast for the current quarter remains unchanged from the one it published a month ago, while its outlook for the start of 2022 has been revised upward by 1.1 million barrels a day.
Out of Step
OPEC places its more optimistic outlook on the assumption that the impact of the omicron variant on oil demand will “be mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage Covid-19 and its related challenges.”
The producer group sees demand growth underpinned by “a steady economic outlook in both the advanced and emerging economies,
despite current inflation and supply chain bottlenecks, ongoing trade issues and their impact on industrial and transportation fuel requirements.”
While the jump in OPEC’s forecast of the level of global oil demand in the first quarter of next year is big, it is really driven by changes made to the group’s assessment of the level of demand a year earlier, in the first three months of 2021.
Asia Drives Demand
Upward revisions to those figures — led by increases in estimates of consumption in the biggest country of Asia and other non-OECD Asian countries, excluding India — combined with steady levels of year-on-year growth, result in the observed jump in demand at the start of next year.
At 5.3 million barrels a day, OPEC’s view of first quarter 2022 global oil demand growth is now very close to the 5.34 million barrels forecast by the EIA. While the U.S.-based agency cut its forecast of demand for the same period by 550,000 barrels a day, it made an even bigger reduction of 700,000 barrels to its estimate for the first quarter of this year. As a result, its forecast of year-on-year demand growth over the three months from January actually increased.
The International Energy Agency is alone in slashing its outlook for both the level of demand in first-quarter 2022 and year-on-year growth. It cut its forecast of total oil demand in the first three months of next year by 630,000 barrels a day, almost all of it in the form of jet fuel/kerosene, which it reduced by nearly 600,000 barrels in response to “revised flight schedules and reported booking cancellations.”
That view may start to look overly pessimistic in light of Tuesday’s decision by the U.K. government to end quarantine requirements for travelers arriving from 11 countries in southern Africa, which it has now deemed as ineffective in halting the spread of the omicron variant. That U-turn could result in a pick-up in flights over the holiday period.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
