据OE网站12月14日报道，国际能源署(IEA)周二表示，疫情病例激增和奥密克戎(Omicron)变异毒株的出现将削弱全球石油需求，但更广阔的前景是，产量增加将在本月超过需求，并将于明年飙升。
总部位于巴黎的IEA在其月度石油报告中表示，新的新冠疫情病例的激增预计将暂时放缓，但不会颠覆正在进行的石油需求复苏。与之前的新冠疫情相比，为阻止病毒传播而采取的新遏制措施可能对经济产生的影响比较小。
据IEA称，随着钻探活动的增加，美国将连续第二个月成为产量增幅最大的国家。
明年，如果沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯所属的欧佩克+集团完全解除其商定的产量限制，则它们的年产量也可能创下纪录。
明年全球石油日供应量可能会骤增640万桶，而今年增加150万桶。
IEA将今明年的石油需求预测分别下调了10万桶/日，主要是由于新的旅行限制对航空燃料使用的预期影响。
然而，道路运输和石化原料所用燃料的需求将继续急剧上升。
在IEA做出上述预测的前一天，产油国组织欧佩克(OPEC)保持了对2021年和2022年的预测不变，称奥密克戎变体对需求的影响将是“温和而短暂的”。
IEA补充称，2021年全球石油供应量仅增加150万桶/天，明年将增加640万桶/天，至少到明年第四季度，供应将超过需求。
郝芬 译自 OE
原文如下：
IEA: Omicron Impact Aside, Oil Supply Set to Top Demand
A surge in COVID-19 cases and the emergence of the Omicron variant will dent global demand for oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, but the broader picture is one of increasing output set to top demand this month and soar next year.
"The surge in new COVID-19 cases is expected to temporarily slow, but not upend, the recovery in oil demand that is underway," the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly oil report.
"New containment measures put in place to halt the spread of the virus are likely to have a more muted impact on the economy versus previous COVID waves," it said.
The United States will account for the single biggest increase in output for a second month running, the IEA said, as drilling picks up there.
Next year, Saudi Arabia and Russia could also set records for annual production if the OPEC+ group to which they both belong fully unwinds its agreed production curbs.
Global oil supply could then jump by 6.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year compared with a 1.5 million bpd increase in 2021.
The IEA lowered its forecast for oil demand this year and the next by 100,000 bpd each, mostly due to the expected blow to jet fuel use from new travel curbs.
Demand for fuels used in road transportation and petrochemical feedstock will continue to rise steeply, however.
The IEA predictions came a day after producer club OPEC kept its own outlook for 2021 and 2022 unchanged, saying the impact of the omicron variant on demand will be "mild and short-lived".
Global oil supply, up just 1.5 million bpd in 2021, will jump 6.4 million barrels per day next year, the IEA added, and supply will outpace demand through at least the fourth quarter of next year.
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