据美国油价网2021年12月17日报道，国际能源署(IEA)在其12月17日发布的2021年煤炭年度报告中表示，疫情后的经济复苏将煤炭发电推向新的历史新高，明年全球煤炭需求可能会达到另一个新高，这将破坏全球实现净零排放的努力。
IEA称，由于关键消费国的经济复苏比预期更早开始，而且比最初的预测更强，去年全球煤炭需求的崩溃程度比预期的要小。
根据目前的趋势，IEA估计，到2022年，全球煤炭年需求量将升至8025万吨，创历史最高水平，并将一直保持到2024年。
IEA表示，今年全球的复苏粉碎了燃煤发电可能已经达到顶峰的任何希望，预计全球燃煤发电今年将增长9%，达到10350太瓦时(TWh)，这又是历史新高。
IEA表示，未来两年，全球煤炭需求甚至可能创下历史新高，因为以亚洲大国和印度为首的新兴市场将引领煤炭消费增长，这一增长速度将超过发达经济体的下滑速度。
IEA表示，全球煤炭消费量并未达到净零排放轨道，在2024年之前也不太可能达到净零排放轨道。
IEA在其报告中表示：“尽管全球对可再生能源的中长期投资将强劲，但煤炭供应预计将扩大到2024年。”
IEA署长法提赫·比罗尔说：“煤炭是全球碳排放的最大来源，今年煤炭发电创历史高位是一个令人担忧的迹象，表明世界将碳排放降至净零的努力离轨道有多远。”
根据IEA能源市场和安全主管Keisuke Sadamori所说，“已做出达到净零排放承诺的许多国家，包括亚洲大国和印度，应该对煤炭消费有很强的影响，但在我们的近期预测中，这些国家还不引人注目，这反映了雄心和行动之间的巨大差距”。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
IEA: Coal Set For Record Highs In 2022 Despite Net-Zero Pledges
The economic rebound from the pandemic is taking coal power generation to a new record high this year, with global coal demand likely hitting another new high next year, undermining net-zero efforts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Coal 2021 report released on Friday.
According to the agency, the 2020 collapse in coal demand turned out to be smaller than anticipated, as the key comsumer’s recovery began sooner than expected and turned out to be stronger than initially forecast.
based on current trends, global coal demand is set to rise to 8025 Mt in 2022, the highest level ever seen, and to remain there through 2024, the IEA estimates.
This year’s global recovery dashed any hopes that coal-fired power generation may have peaked, the IEA said, expecting global coal power generation to rise by 9 percent this year to 10350 terawatt-hours (TWh)—a new all-time high.
Over the next two years, global coal demand could even see new record highs as emerging markets led by China and India will lead consumption growth which is set to outpace declines in developed economies, according to the IEA.
Global coal consumption is not on the Net Zero trajectory and is unlikely to be before 2024, the agency said.
“Although global investment in renewable energy will be strong in the medium and long term, coal supplies are expected to expand until 2024,” the IEA said in its report.
“Coal is the single largest source of global carbon emissions, and this year’s historically high level of coal power generation is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
According to Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security at the IEA, “The pledges to reach net zero emissions made by many countries, including the biggest country in Asia and India, should have very strong implications for coal – but these are not yet visible in our near-term forecast, reflecting the major gap between ambitions and action.”
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