据EIA网站12月16日报道，美国能源信息署（EIA）12 月短期能源展望(STEO)预测，美国干天然气产量将从 2021 年 10 月的每天 951 亿立方英尺增加到 2022 年 12 月的 975亿立方英尺，创历史新高。之前的月度记录 972亿立方英尺是在 2019 年 11 月创下的。
2020 年初，与 疫情相关的需求下降导致天然气价格相应下降并减少了钻探。因此，2020 年 5 月，每月天然气产量下降至 873亿立方英尺低点。自那以后，美国干天然气产量普遍上升。2021年2月，由于天气原因得克萨斯天然气产量大幅下降，这是一个短暂例外。
美国能源信息署对美国天然气产量增长的预测包括以天然气为导向的钻井活动的预期产量及与原油生产（伴生气）相关的天然气产量。根据EIA在《钻井产能报告》中编制的指标，在 海恩斯维尔地区（主要在得克萨斯州和路易斯安那州）和阿巴拉契亚盆地（主要在宾夕法尼亚州和西弗吉尼亚州），钻井活动及单井产量的增加导致近几个月天然气产量增加。随着生产商完成了先前已钻探但尚未完成的井（DUC 井），相关的天然气产量也有所增加。
根据贝克休斯公司的数据，2019 年和 2020 年上半年，天然气导向钻井平台（主要在含天然气地层中钻探的钻井平台）数量有所减少。到 2020 年 8 月下旬，天然气导向钻机数量已降至 68个，这是贝克休斯自 1987 年数据系列中最少的。此后，天然气导向钻机数量已增加至 2021 年 11 月中旬的 102 个，但钻井效率（每台钻机可以钻的新井数量）和新井产量的提高使钻机数量与最终产量之间的关系变得复杂。
贾丽 编译自 EIA
原文如下：
EIA forecasts U.S. natural gas production will establish a new monthly record high in 2022
In our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that U.S. dry natural gas production will increase from 95.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in October 2021 to 97.5 Bcf/d by December 2022, a new record high. The previous monthly record of 97.2 Bcf/d was set in November 2019.
In early 2020, COVID-19-associated declines in demand resulted in a corresponding natural gas price decrease and reduced drilling. As a result, monthly natural gas production declined to a low of 87.3 Bcf/d in May 2020. Dry natural gas production in the United States has generally risen since then, with a brief exception in February 2021, when winter weather substantially reduced natural gas production in Texas.
Our forecast for U.S. natural gas production growth includes expected output from natural gas-directed drilling activity as well as natural gas production associated with crude oil production (associated gas). In both the Haynesville region (mainly in Texas and Louisiana) and the Appalachia Basin (mainly in Pennsylvania and West Virginia), increased drilling activity and greater output per well have led to more natural gas production in recent months, according to metrics compiled in our Drilling Productivity Report. Associated natural gas production has also increased as producers have completed wells that were previously drilled but uncompleted (DUC wells).
The number of natural gas-directed rigs—rigs drilled primarily in natural gas-bearing formations—decreased throughout 2019 and the first half of 2020, based on data from the Baker Hughes Company. By late August 2020, the natural gas-directed rig count had fallen to 68 rigs, the fewest in Baker Hughes’s data series, which dates back to 1987. The number of natural gas-directed rigs has since increased to 102 in mid-November 2021. Rig counts are considered a leading indicator of newly drilled wells, but increases in drilling efficiency (the number of new wells each rig can drill) and new-well production have complicated the relationship between rig counts and eventual production.
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