•能源转型的不确定性不断增加，阻碍了油气公司增加支出
•清洁能源解决方案投资的战略选择、应对脱碳压力以及投资组合的重新定位将是明年所有油气公司的关键主题
•WoodMackenzie:企业将在上游脱碳领域投入更多资金
据油价网2021年12月27日消息，全球上游行业明年将出现反弹，届时勘探和生产的总投资有望三年来首次超过4000亿美元。然而, Wood Mackenzie在其2022年全球上游前景报告中表示，尽管现金流创历史新高且油价超过每桶70美元, 但再投资率将在 2022 年保持在接近历史低位的水平，因为公司将保持支出纪律，并更加关注气候和股东对脱碳业务的压力。
在经历了2020年的崩盘和危机以及2021年的复苏之后，如今，油气行业的现金流创下或接近纪录。
资本约束盛行
然而，现金流正以股票回购和提高股息的形式分配给股东，而不是大幅增加钻井活动。
大型石油公司利用高现金流回购股票和提高股息并不是什么新鲜事。今年的情况表明，美国页岩气开发也以回报投资者为重点，放弃了无休止的钻探，并将所有现金流(甚至是借款投资)投入到新井中。
尽管油价在过去六个月的大部分时间里都保持在每桶70美元以上，但以页岩油为主的美国生产商、国际石油巨头和国家石油公司(NOC)仍对上游支出保持谨慎。
Wood Mackenzie表示，到2022年，资本约束仍将是上游油气行业的一大主题。明年，全球上游投资总额将增长9%，达到4000亿美元以上。
这将是自2019年以来，上游总支出首次超过4000亿美元。
WoodMac的数据显示，尽管预计明年的投资将会增加，但全球再投资率(按资本投资除以税前营业现金流计算)将保持在接近历史低点的水平。
在大型石油公司中，如今没有人在投资上大肆挥霍，这与2015年价格暴跌之前的几年不同，当时各公司的支出定位在油价会一直维持在每桶100美元。
当然，与2021年和2020年相比，五大石油巨头——埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、壳牌、bp和道达尔能源——2022年的资本支出都将更高，但远不及2014年的水平。资本约束仍然是所有财报发布和电话会议的关键词，在分配创纪录的现金流时，更高的股息和股票回购是优先考虑的。
五大国际公司也在提高低碳能源的资本支出，其中包括美国的超级巨头，它们与欧洲竞争对手不愿意投资任何太阳能和风力发电的战略不同，相反，埃克森美孚和雪佛龙计划将重点放在可再生燃料和碳捕集与封存(CCS)上，这既是为了减少各自的碳足迹，也是为了在高度工业化的地区合作发展区域性的CCS中心。
2022年行业现金流可能达到1万亿美元
“布伦特原油价格约为70美元/桶，油气现金流将接近历史最高水平。如果油价达到80美元/桶，现金流将飙升至1万亿美元(包括税后、资本支出后、融资前和股息)。”
WoodMac表示，尽管现金流创纪录，但由于气候变化和股东压力，油气行业明年的不确定性将达到峰值。该行业面临着越来越大的压力，需要减少排放，并向投资者表明，在全球脱碳进程中，它可能是解决方案的一部分，而不是问题的一部分。
尽管明年现金流可能创历史新高，但对许多利益相关者、甚至一些首席执行官来说，该行业的风险大于其上行空间。这种紧张局势将定义2022年。
不确定性
清洁能源解决方案投资的战略选择、应对脱碳压力和投资组合重新定位将成为明年所有石油和天然气公司的关键主题——从超级巨头和国家石油公司到美国独立石油和天然气生产商，Wood Mackenzie企业研究高级副总裁Tom Ellacott在最近的一份报告中对2022年的情况进行了展望。
“企业将向上游脱碳投入更多资金。增加产品销量的增值解决方案将继续引领潮流，但CCS项目将获得动力并吸引新的参与者，”Wood Mackenzie的McKay在WoodMac的《2022年全球上游展望》中表示。
该能源研究公司预计，到2022年，运营商将批准40多个项目，每个项目的产量超过5000万桶油当量，其中低盈亏、低碳的深水项目将主导绿地最终投资决策。
上游油气行业明年将出现反弹，但4000亿美元的总投资仍将落后于在几年内避免供应短缺所需的约5400亿美元。此外，此外，脱碳压力还将影响该行业在 2022 年和长期的未来投资选择。
裘寅 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
A Look At Big Oil’s Spending Plans For 2022
Mounting uncertainty about the energy transition keeps oil and gas companies from spending more
Strategic choices in investment in clean energy solutions, responding to the pressure to decarbonize, and portfolio repositioning will be next year’s key themes for all oil and gas companies
WoodMackenzie: Companies will allocate more capital to upstream decarbonisation
The global upstream sector is set for a rebound next year, when overall investment in exploration and production is expected to exceed $400 billion for the first time in three years. Yet, despite record high cash flows and oil at over $70 a barrel, reinvestment rates will stay at near record low levels in 2022, as companies will maintain discipline in spending and pay more attention to climate and shareholder pressure to decarbonize operations, Wood Mackenzie said in its Global Upstream Outlook 2022 report.
After a year of recovery in 2021, following the crash and crisis of 2020, the oil and gas industry is generating record or near record cash flows these days.
Capital Discipline Prevails
However, cash flows are being allocated to higher shareholder payouts in the form of share buybacks and raised dividends instead of significant increases in drilling activity. It’s nothing new for Big Oil to use high cash flows to repurchase shares and boost dividends. This year has shown that the U.S. shale patch has also pivoted to returns for investors and has abandoned the relentless drilling and investing all the cash flows (and even borrowing to invest) in new wells.
Shale-focused U.S. producers, as well as international majors and national oil companies (NOCs), continue to be careful with upstream spending, even if oil prices have held above $70 per barrel for most of the past six months.
According to Wood Mackenzie, capital discipline will still be a major theme in upstream oil and gas in 2022. Total global upstream investment is set to increase by 9 percent to over $400 billion next year.
This will be the first time that overall upstream spending will have exceeded $400 billion annually for the first time since 2019.
Despite the expected higher investment next year, the global reinvestment rate – calculated as capital investment divided by pre-dividend post-tax operating cash flow – will stay near record lows, according to WoodMac.
Among Big Oil, no one is splurging on investment these days, unlike in the years prior to the 2015 price crash, when companies were spending as if oil would stay at $100 a barrel forever.
Sure, capex for 2022 is set to be higher at all five majors – ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies – compared to 2021 and 2020, but it’s nowhere near 2014 levels. Capital discipline is still the keyword in all earnings releases and calls, where higher dividends and share buybacks take precedence when it comes to allocating record cash flows.
The five largest international firms are also raising capital spending on low-carbon energy, including the U.S. supermajors who differ from their European competitors in strategy by not being willing to invest in any solar and wind power generation. Instead, Exxon and Chevron plan to focus on renewable fuels and carbon capture and storage (CCS), both to cut their own carbon footprint and to develop in partnership regional CCS hubs in heavily industrialized areas.
Industry Cash Flows Could Reach $1 Trillion In 2022
“At a Brent price of around US$70/bbl, oil and gas cash flows will be at near-record levels. At US$80/bbl, it would soar towards US$1 trillion (on a post-tax, post-capex, pre-financing and dividends basis),” Fraser McKay, Vice President, upstream research, at Wood Mackenzie, says.
Despite record cash flows, the oil and gas sector faces ‘peak uncertainty’ next year amid climate and shareholder pressure, WoodMac says. The industry faces increased pressure to reduce emissions and show investors it could be part of the solution – not the problem – in the global drive toward decarbonization.
Although cash flows could hit records next year, “for many stakeholders and even some chief executives, the sector’s risks outweigh its upsides. This tension will define 2022,” according to Wood Mackenzie’s McKay.
Uncertainties Mount
Strategic choices in investment in clean energy solutions, responding to the pressure to decarbonize, and portfolio repositioning will be next year’s key themes for all oil and gas companies—from the supermajors and the NOCs to the U.S. independent oil and gas producers, Tom Ellacott, Senior Vice President, Corporate Research, at Wood Mackenzie, wrote in a recent report with an outlook of what to expect in 2022.
“Companies will allocate more capital to upstream decarbonisation. Value accretive solutions, which increase product sales, will continue to lead the way, but CCS projects will gain momentum and attract new participants,” Wood Mackenzie’s McKay said in WoodMac’s Global Upstream Outlook 2022.
The energy research firm expects operators to sanction in 2022 more than 40 projects over 50 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) each, with low-breakeven, low-carbon deepwater projects dominating greenfield final investment decisions (FIDs).
The upstream oil and gas industry is set for a rebound next year, but overall investment of $400 billion will still lag the needed around $540 billion to stave off a supply shortage within a few years’ time. In addition, the pressure to decarbonize would also shape the industry’s future investment choices, both in 2022 and in the long run.
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