据美国钻井网站报道，英国风险咨询公司Verisk Maplecroft日前警告称，全球超过40%的商业可采油气储量极易受到气候变化的影响。
Verisk Maplecroft将其次国家的 陆上 和 海上 的气候变化暴露指数(Climate Change Exposure Indices)与其姊妹公司伍德麦肯兹的资产水平数据相结合，突出了到本世纪中叶最容易受到极端气候物理影响的油气储量。这项研究结果发现，全球10.5%的商业可采油气储量位于气候变化暴露指数中列为极端风险的地区，而29.5%位于高风险地区。 Verisk Maplecroft指出，受气候变化威胁的全球油气总储量约为6170亿桶油当量。
Verisk Maplecroft表示，数据还显示，陆上油气作业面临着气候变化的“全方位”物理影响，包括海平面上升、风暴、热浪、洪水和其他极端天气事件。 另一方面，像墨西哥湾这样的海上油气作业，据说很容易受到热带气旋和极端海浪高度的影响。
Verisk Maplecroft指出，中东和北非(MENA)地区面临风险的可采油气储量比例最高。 Verisk Maplecroft表示，在受气候变化影响较大的地区拥有油气储量的公司将面临更多破坏性事件，开采成本可能会更高，而且需要投资于缓解气候变化影响的行动。
与气候相关的供应威胁已开始显现
在其最新的研究报告中，Verisk Maplecroft概述了与气候相关的石油和天然气行业的供应威胁已经开始显现。Verisk Maplecroft强调，仅在2021年，得克萨斯州的冻结令美国油气产量降至三年低点，飓风艾达导致墨西哥湾发生创纪录的55起漏油事件，并造成原油和成品油供应出现历史性中断。
Verisk Maplecroft还指出，俄罗斯创纪录的高温加速了永久冻土层的融化，这一趋势已经破坏了严重依赖石油和天然气生产的北部地区40%的建筑和基础设施。
Verisk Maplecroft的环境分析师罗里·克莱斯比在一份公司声明中表示：“这类事件将变得更加频繁和极端，对油气行业造成更大的冲击。”
克莱斯比在声明中补充道，根据气候相关财务信息披露工作组(TCFD)的建议，如果能源公司想要减轻这些威胁，并消除投资者对其向低碳未来转型的担忧，那么识别和披露这些风险对于能源公司来说现在是一种战略需要 。
飓风艾达
8月27日，美国安全环境执法局(BSEE)首次启动了飓风应急小组。 BSEE的数据显示，飓风艾达在其高峰时期，8月29日关闭了墨西哥湾95.65%的石油生产，8月31日关闭了墨西哥湾94.47%的天然气生产。
9月23日，BSEE发布了关于疏散的最后更新，并关闭了飓风艾达的生产统计数据。 该数据估计，墨西哥湾约有16.18%的石油生产和24.27%的天然气生产仍处于关闭状态。 BSEE强调，这相当于美国每天减少29.4414万桶石油和5.4112亿立方英尺天然气产量。
美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA) 9月30日表示，有影响的2021年大西洋飓风季节正式结束，产生了21个被命名的风暴，其中7个飓风被划分为主要飓风。 NOOA指出，美国国家气象局旗下的气候预测中心在5月和8月的展望中准确预测了这个“高于平均水平”的飓风季节。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Climate Change Threatens Recoverable Oil Reserves
More than 40 percent of commercially recoverable oil and gas reserves are highly exposed to the effects of climate change, Verisk Maplecroft has warned.
By combining its subnational onshore and offshore Climate Change Exposure Indices with asset-level data from its sister company Wood Mackenzie, Verisk Maplecroft has highlighted the oil and gas assets most exposed to the physical impacts of climate extremes up to mid-century. The research found that 10.5 percent of global commercially recoverable reserves are found in areas rated as extreme risk in the Climate Change Exposure Indices, while 29.5 percent are in high risk regions. In total, this amounts to around 617 billion barrels equivalent, Verisk Maplecroft noted.
The data shows that onshore oil and gas operations are exposed to the “full range” of the physical impacts of climate change, including sea level rise, storms, heatwaves, flooding and other extreme weather events, according to Verisk Maplecroft. Offshore operations, such as in the Gulf of Mexico, on the other hand, are said to be vulnerable to tropical cyclones and extreme wave heights.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has the highest proportion of reserves at risk, Verisk Maplecroft pointed out. Companies with reserves in locations highly exposed to the physical impacts of climate change will face more disruptive events, potentially higher costs for extraction and the need to invest in mitigating actions, Verisk Maplecroft said.
Climate Related Supply Threats Already Here
In its latest research note, Verisk Maplecroft outlined that climate-related supply threats to the oil and gas industry have already begun to manifest. The company highlighted that this year alone, a freeze in Texas knocked U.S. oil and gas output to a three-year low and Hurricane Ida caused a record 55 spills in the Gulf of Mexico and created historic disruptions to the supply of both crude oil and refined products.
Verisk Maplecroft also noted that record heat in Russia accelerated the melting of permafrost, which it said is a trend that has damaged 40 percent of buildings and infrastructure in northern regions that are heavily reliant on oil and gas production.
“These types of events are going to become more frequent and more extreme, creating even greater shocks within the industry,” Rory Clisby, an environmental analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said in a company statement.
“Identifying and disclosing these risks in line with the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations is now a strategic necessity for energy companies if they are to mitigate these threats and offset investor concerns over their transition to a low carbon future,” Clisby added in the statement.
Hurricane Ida
The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) first activated its hurricane response team due to Hurricane Ida on August 27. At its peak, the hurricane shut in 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on August 29 and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on August 31, BSEE figures show.
The BSEE released its final update on evacuation and shut in production statistics for Hurricane Ida on September 23. That data estimated that approximately 16.18 percent of oil production and around 24.27 percent of gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remained shut in. This equated to 294,414 barrels of oil per day and 541.12 million cubic feet of gas per day, the BSEE highlighted.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on November 30 that the active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season had officially concluded, having produced 21 named storms, including seven hurricanes, of which four were classified as major hurricanes. NOOA noted that this “above-average” hurricane season was accurately predicted by its Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, in their May and August outlooks.
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