据世界能源12月29日消息:美国天然气期货价格本周上涨,原因是天气变冷,部分地区降雪。
据彭博社报道,尽管远低于亚洲或欧洲的天然气价格,但美国1月天然气期货价格今天早些时候上涨了1.7%,达到4.127美元/百万英热单位。一天前,该合约上涨8.8%,为去年10月以来的最大单日涨幅,也是由于天气预报的影响。
《华尔街日报》回顾了周一价格在连续四周下跌之后的上涨。据天气预报中心称,冬季将给美国北部和西部地区带来大雪、冰冻和强风。
据NatGasWeather称,预计1月初的天气将更加寒冷,甚至可能影响天然气生产。预报员报告说,该国部分地区可能会在1月的第一周出现冰冻,包括落基山脉、巴肯页岩区和中部大陆。
今年得克萨斯州冻结的假设重演也将影响天然气产量,从而影响价格。
因此,根据Refinitiv的数据,天然气需求预计将增至每天1267亿立方英尺。这比1100亿立方英尺还要高。
华尔街日报援引韩国银行金融分析师的一份报告称,"美国将迎来更冷的天气,下周我们应该会看到供暖需求大幅回升。"
与此同时,根据BloombergNEF的数据,截至周一,美国本土48州的天然气产量为979亿立方英尺。较去年同期增长6.4%。
数据显示,美国本土48州的需求为845亿立方英尺,同比下降4.8%。截至周一,流入墨西哥湾液化终端的天然气平均为124亿立方英尺。
冯娟 摘译自 世界能源
原文如下:
U.S. Natural Gas Rise As Colder Weather Rushes In
U.S. natural gas futures rose this week as colder weather with snow came into parts of the country.
Although substantially lower than Asian or European gas prices, U.S. January futures for natural gas rose by 1.7 percent earlier today, to $4.127 per million British thermal units, according to Bloomberg. A day earlier, the contract gained 8.8 percent in the steepest one-day rise since October, again because of the weather forecast.
The Wall Street Journal recalls the Monday jump in prices followed four weeks of declines. According to the Weather Prediction Center, the winter will bring heavy snowfall, freezing temperatures, and strong winds to the northern and western parts of the United States.
For early January, the forecast is for more cold weather that may even affect natural gas production, according to NatGasWeather. The forecaster reported freeze-offs were likely in the first week of January in parts of the country, including the Rockies, the Bakken shale play, and the Midcontinent.
A hypothetical repeat of this year’s Texas Freeze would also affect natural gas production and, as a result, prices.
As a result, demand for natural gas is seen rising to 126.7 billion cu ft daily, according to data from Refinitiv. That’s up from 110 billion cu ft.
“The colder weather coming to the U.S. will be watched and we should see a substantial pick up in heating demand next week,” analysts from BOK Financial said in a note cited by the Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, production of natural gas in the Lower 48 stood at 97.9 billion cu ft as of Monday, according to data from BloombergNEF. That was up by 6.4 percent from a year ago.
Demand in the Lower 48 stood at 84.5 billion cu ft, down 4.8 percent on the year, according to the data. Gas flows to liquefaction terminals on the Gulf Coast averaged 12.4 billion cu ft as of Monday.
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