据安迅思12月23日消息称，国际能源机构(IEA)周二表示，需求放缓和供应增加可能会导致 2022 年第一和第二季度的石油供需平衡更加舒适。
该机构在发布月度石油市场报告时表示:“预计新冠肺炎病例的激增将减缓全球石油需求的复苏，其中航空旅行和航空燃油受到的影响最大。自去年11月报告以来，国际能源署将2021年和2022年的平均石油需求下调了约10万桶/天。
“在美国和欧佩克+国家的增长带动下，全球石油产量有望从 12 月开始超过需求，”IEA补充说。
“随着这种上升趋势延续到 2022 年，美国、加拿大和巴西的年产量似乎将达到有史以来的最高水平，从而在2022年将非欧佩克+国家的总产量提高180万桶/天。如果欧佩克+的剩余削减完全解除，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯也可能创下纪录。在这种情况下，明年全球石油供应将增加640万桶/天，而2021年仅增加150万桶/天。”
IEA 的最新报告显示，全球石油需求将在2021年增加540万桶/天，在2022年增加330万桶/天，使其达到大流行前的水平9950万桶/天。
IEA补充称:“随着2021年接近尾声，石油市场的基础似乎比一段时间以来更好。”
朱佳妮 摘译自 安迅思
原文如下：
More comfortable crude oil supply/demand balances expected for Q1/Q2 2022 – IEA
Slowing demand and greater availability could lead to a more comfortable oil supply/demand balance in the first and second quarters of 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
“A surge in new COVID cases is expected to slow the recovery in global oil demand, with air travel and jet fuel most affected,” the agency said on the publication of its monthly oil market report. The IEA revised average oil demand down since its November report, by about 100,000 bbl/day for both 2021 and 2022.
“Global oil production is poised to outpace demand from December, led by growth in the US and OPEC+ countries,” it added.
“As this upward trend extends into 2022, the US, Canada and Brazil look set to pump at their highest ever annual levels, lifting overall non-OPEC+ output by 1.8 mb/d in 2022. Saudi Arabia and Russia could also hit records if remaining OPEC+ cuts are fully unwound. In that case, global supply would soar by 6.4 mb/d next year compared with a 1.5 mb/d rise in 2021.”
The IEA’s latest report suggests that global oil demand will rise by 5.4m bbl/day in 2021 and by 3.3m bbl/day in 2022, taking it to pre-pandemic levels of 99.5m bbl/day.
“As 2021 draws to a close, the oil market appears to stand on a better footing than it has for some time,” the IEA added.
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