据管道&天然气杂志网12月21日报道，美国天然气期货周二小幅上涨，市场预期下周天气将温和，且供暖需求将低于此前预期，转而关注欧洲天然气期货的大幅上涨，这可能使美国液化天然气出口保持在接近纪录高位的水平。
截至美国东部时间上午 9:34（格林威治标准时间 14：34），即月天然气期货上涨2.7美分，涨幅0.7%，至每百万英热单位3.861 美元，此前交易日上涨近4%。
Refinitiv分析师约翰·阿伯伦（John Abeln）表示，我们处于推拉式的市场状况。一方面，由于欧洲和亚洲的高价格以及萨宾帕斯终端的扩建，我们目前看到LNG原料气创历史新高。另一方面，GFS00和EC00天气模式在未来两周变暖。
欧洲天然气价格上涨逾18%，创下历史新高，由于俄罗斯通过一条主要输气管道向德国输送的天然气发生了逆转，而寒冷的天气增加了需求。
无论全球天然气价格上涨多高，美国只能将约111亿立方英尺/天的天然气转换为液化天然气。流向出口工厂的剩余天然气用于为生产天然气的设备提供燃料。
咨询公司 Ritterbusch and Associates 在一份报告中表示，考虑到产能，俄罗斯流入欧洲的流量减少不一定等同于液化天然气出口的增量增加。因此，在天气因素提供一些看涨因素之前，天然气市场将继续经历一些困难，难以突破4.00-4.10美元区域。
根据数据提供商Refinitiv预计，随着天气转暖，美国日均天然气需求(包括出口)将从本周的1237亿立方英尺降至下周的1186亿立方英尺。
据Refinitiv估计，未来两周，美国本土48个州将有405采暖度日数，低于周一估计的413采暖度日数。每年这个时候的正常数据是428采暖度日数。
HDD用于估计家庭和企业的供暖需求，测量一天平均温度低于65华氏度（18 摄氏度）的度数。
自11月中旬以来，气候温和，供暖需求一直较低，这意味着库存中的天然气将很快超过往年，这是自4月以来的首次。
12月到目前为止，流向美国LNG出口工厂的天然气量日均为119亿立方英尺，如今位于路易斯安那州的切尼尔能源公司萨宾帕斯工厂的第六条生产线正在生产LNG。
相比之下，11月为114亿立方英尺/天，4月创下115亿立方英尺/天的月度纪录。
12月迄今为止，美国48个州的日均产量为967亿立方英尺，这超过11月创下的965亿立方英尺的月度纪录。
郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网
原文如下：
US NatGas Futures Edge Up on Soaring Global Gas Prices
U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Tuesday, shrugging off forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected, and focusing instead on a sharp rally in European gas futures that could keep U.S. liquefied natural gas exports near record highs.
Front-month gas futures rose 2.7 cents, or 0.7%, to $3.861 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by 9:34 a.m. EST (1434 GMT) after rising nearly 4% in the previous session.
"We are in push-pull market condition. On the one hand, we are currently seeing record high LNG feedgas, caused by the high prices in Europe and Asia, as well as the expansion at Sabine Pass. On the other hand, both the GFS00 and EC00 weather models have shifted warmer over the next two weeks," Refinitiv analyst John Abeln said.
Gas prices in Europe jumped more than 18% to an all-time high as Russian gas shipments to Germany through a major transit pipeline reversed direction and colder weather increased demand.
No matter how high global gas prices rise, the United States can only convert about 11.1 Bcfd of gas into LNG. The rest of the gas flowing to the export plants is used to fuel equipment that produces the it.
"Curtailed Russian flows into Europe will not necessarily be equating to an incremental increase in LNG exports given capacity considerations. So, until some bullish assistance is provided by the weather factor, the gas market will continue to experience some difficulty in pushing above the $4.00-4.10 zone," advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Data provider Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 123.7 cubic feet per day this week to 118.6 Bcfd next week as the weather turns milder.
Refinitiv estimated 405 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states, down from the 413 HDDs estimated on Monday. The normal is 428 HDDs for this time of year.
HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius).
Mostly mild weather since mid-November has kept heating demand low and means there will soon be more gas in stockpiles than is usual for the time of year for the first time since April.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 11.9 Bcfd so far in December, now that the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana is producing LNG.
That compares to 11.4 Bcfd in November and a monthly record of 11.5 Bcfd in April.
Output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 96.7 Bcfd so far in December, which would top the monthly record of 96.5 Bcfd in November.
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