•预测油价一直很困难，但欧洲的能源危机、欧佩克+控制产量、正在进行的能源转型、疫情明年还在继续，这些都让人很难预测油价
•全球能源转型面临很多问题，尤其是成本上升，这将是2022年关注的一个关键因素
•继2021年石油和天然气需求的反弹之后，随着奥密克戎病例的激增和投资者继续敦促企业进行脱碳，市场将在 2022年面临价格、需求和行业长期前景的新不确定性
据油价网12月21日消息，随着新冠疫情和通胀担忧威胁需求，不确定性在年底重新回到石油市场。
石油和天然气需求明年是否会继续复苏，清洁能源装置是否会继续激增?或者，潜伏一段时间的风险会阻碍绿色能源的推出，并颠覆全球石油和天然气需求的反弹?
离2021年底越近，2022年的前景就越不确定，奥密克戎让已经开始收紧限制或像荷兰那样重新实施严格封锁的欧洲各国政府感到不安。英国不排除采取更严格的措施，许多其他欧洲国家也在收紧旅行限制。
100美元的油价？
奥密克戎对经济和燃料需求的影响，以及对石油需求复苏和价格的影响将是2022年全年的一个主要主题，特别是在前几个月。
尽管在“正常”情况下预测油价很困难，但疫情带来的不确定性使预测任务更加困难。目前，市场对油价的预期从明年平均每桶70美元左右，到2022年或2023年某个时候达到每桶100美元以上的高点不等。
欧佩克认为奥密克戎对石油需求的影响是“温和而短暂的”，而国际能源署(IEA)则预计，由于该新变异毒株的出现，需求复苏将暂时放缓，但不会完全颠覆需求趋势。
在奥密克戎变异毒株扩散初期，摩根大通曾表示，由于欧佩克增产能力有限，明年油价可能飙升至每桶125美元，2023年达到每桶150美元。
由于奥密克戎的不确定性，欧佩克可能会立即调整其石油生产政策，因此，欧佩克的行动将与疫情的发展一起，成为明年油价的重要驱动因素。
伍德麦肯兹公司(Wood Mackenzie)董事长兼首席分析师西蒙•弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)最近在一篇文章中讨论了2022年油气行业的主要主题，他在文章中写道，油价不太可能升至每桶100美元，至少在明年的任何一段持续时间内都不太可能。
一些分析人士预计，北半球将迎来比往年更冷的严冬，这将加剧欧洲的能源危机，并耗尽该国的天然气储备。就今年这个时候而言，这些的天然气储备已经处于10年来的最低水平。这可能会推动使用天然气以外的燃料(包括石油产品)供暖的需求，即使封锁限制了汽油消费，也可能会推高石油需求。
能源危机何时结束?
“一个糟糕的冬天会把已经接近历史最高水平的天然气和电力价格推得更高，”弗劳尔斯说。
本周末的一股寒流已经将欧洲的电价推至新高，原因是法国关闭四座核反应堆后，天然气储存量和电力供应都很低。
天然气价格非常不稳定，对俄罗斯额外供应的缺乏非常敏感，但随着春天天气变暖，天然气价格势必会下降。
然而，伍德麦肯兹的分析师表示，即使在2022年春季冬季结束时，亚洲和欧洲的天然气价格仍将高于危机前的水平，天然气市场的结构性比疫情之前更为紧张。
他们指出:“我们预计，在2021年至2025年期间，欧洲和亚洲的液化天然气价格将稳定在当前平均价格的两倍以上，直到2026年新的供应开始供应。”
明年及以后的天然气市场前景面临的一个主要风险是，天然气是否仍会被视为一种可靠的、比煤炭更清洁的燃料，以帮助煤转气转换和支持可再生能源，或者只是作为另一种化石燃料， 不应再被视为清洁能源的“桥梁燃料”。
成本上升会阻碍能源转型吗?
伍德麦肯兹认为，虽然大型石油公司将更多投资转向低碳能源，但由于成本较高，已经成熟的太阳能和风能技术的产能增加速度可能会放缓，伍德麦肯兹认为清洁能源装置中存在金属潜在超级周期和持续激增的风险。
IEA 执行董事法提赫比罗尔本月早些时候表示，尽管大宗商品和运输价格居高不下，但可再生能源有望在 2021 年实现创纪录的增长。
国际能源署在其《2021年可再生能源市场报告》中预测，到2026年，全球仍需要在未来五年内增加两倍的年生产能力，才能在2050年实现净零排放。
伍德麦肯兹认为，不断上升的投入成本和工资、供应链挑战和物流可能“阻碍大量低碳技术的推出和发展”。
伍德麦肯兹本月早些时候表示，在未来的几个月和几年里，蓬勃发展的美国太阳能产业将在巨大的机遇和重大的绊脚石之间摇摆不定，未来几年很可能会经历一次疯狂的“太阳能过山车”。
美国太阳能市场第三季度安装了5.4吉瓦的太阳能装机容量，比2020年同期增长33%，是有记录以来最大的第三季度。然而，成本继续上升。
所有细分市场的安装成本连续第二个季度上升，反映了供应链的挑战。除住宅外，所有细分市场的同比价格涨幅都达到了2014年以来的最高水平，当时伍德麦肯兹开始追踪价格数据。
不确定性似乎将成为2022年油气市场的最大主题。
裘寅 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Uncertainty To Dominate Oil Markets In 2022
•Uncertainty has returned to oil markets at the end of the year as a new variant of Covid combines with inflation fears to threaten demand
•Predicting the price of oil is always difficult, but with an energy crisis in Europe, OPEC+ controlling production, the energy transition underway, and Covid continuing next year is particularly difficult to read
•The global energy transition is facing plenty of problems, not least of which is rising costs, and will be a key factor to watch in 2022
Following the rebound in oil and gas demand in 2021, the market is headed to 2022 with renewed uncertainties about prices, demand, and the industry’s longer-term prospects as Omicron COVID cases spike and investors continue to press companies toward decarbonization. Will oil and gas demand continue to recover and clean energy installations continue to surge next year? Or will risks lurking for some time materialize to hamper green energy rollouts and upend the rebound in global oil and gas demand?
The closer we get to the end of 2021, the more uncertain the 2022 outlook becomes, with Omicron spooking governments in Europe that have already started to tighten restrictions or re-impose strict lockdowns in the case of the Netherlands. The UK is not ruling out stricter measures, and many other European countries are tightening travel restrictions.
$100 Oil?
The Omicron impact on economies and fuel demand and the effect on oil demand recovery and prices will be a major theme throughout 2022, especially during the first few months of the year.
As difficult as it is to predict oil prices in “normal” circumstances, the uncertainties with the pandemic have made the task of forecasting even more difficult. Currently, outlooks range from oil averaging around $70 next year to hitting as high as above $100 per barrel at some point in 2022 or 2023.
OPEC sees a “mild and short-lived” Omicron impact on oil demand, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a temporary slowdown in demand recovery due to the new variant, but not an entirely upended demand trend.
In the early days of the Omicron variant spreading, JP Morgan said that oil could soar to $125 per barrel next year and $150 in 2023 due to OPEC’s limited capacity to boost production.
OPEC left the door open to potential immediate adjustments in its oil production policy with the Omicron uncertainty, so the cartel’s actions would be an important driver of oil prices next year, along with the COVID developments.
Oil prices rising to $100 a barrel is unlikely, at least for any sustained period next year, Simon Flowers, Chairman, and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, wrote in a recent post discussing the key themes in oil and gas in 2022.
Some analysts expect a harsh colder-than-usual winter in the northern hemisphere to exacerbate the energy crisis in Europe and deplete its stockpiles of natural gas in storage which are already at a decade low for this time of the year. This could prop up demand for heating with fuels other than natural gas, including oil products, potentially driving up oil demand even if lockdowns limit gasoline consumption.
When Will The Energy Crisis End?
“A bad winter will push gas and power prices—already near record levels—higher still,” says WoodMac’s Flowers.
A cold snap this weekend already sent Europe’s power prices surging to new records, as gas storage levels are low and electricity availability is low too after France shut down four nuclear reactors.
Natural gas prices are highly volatile and sensitive to (the lack of) extra supply from Russia, but they are set to fall in the spring with warmer weather.
However, even at the end of the winter season in the spring of 2022, gas prices in Asia and Europe will remain higher than pre-crisis levels, with a structurally tighter gas market than before COVID, WoodMac’s analysts say.
“We expect LNG prices in Europe and Asia to settle at more than double the average for prevailing prices between 2015 and 2020 until new supply comes onstream in 2026,” they noted.
A major risk to the gas market outlook next year and beyond would be whether gas will still be perceived as a reliable, cleaner-than-coal fuel to help a coal-to-gas switch and backup for renewables or as just another fossil fuel that shouldn’t be considered the “bridge fuel” to clean energy sources anymore.
Will Rising Costs Hold Back The Energy Transition?
While Big Oil directs more investments to low-carbon energy, the pace of the capacity additions of the already mature solar and wind technology could slow because of higher costs, according to one risk Wood Mackenzie sees for a potential supercycle in metals and a continued surge in clean energy installations.
Despite the high commodity and transport prices, renewables are on track for record growth in 2021, the IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said earlier this month, noting however that “if commodity prices stay high until the end of 2022, it would wipe out 5 years of cost reductions for wind power – and 3 years of reductions for solar PV.”
The world will still need double new annual capacity over the next five years to achieve the net-zero by 2050 scenario, the IEA said in its annual Renewables 2021 Market Report with a forecast to 2026.
According to WoodMac, rising input costs and wages, supply chain challenges, and logistics could “hamper the roll-out and development of a raft of low-carbon technologies.”
The booming U.S. solar industry is set to be torn between huge opportunities and major stumbling blocks in the coming months and years, and it will likely see a wild “solar coaster” ride in the next few years, Wood Mackenzie earlier this month.
The U.S. solar market installed 5.4 GWdc of solar capacity in the third quarter, up by 33 percent from the same period of 2020 and the largest Q3 on record. However, costs continued to rise.
“Installed costs increased across all market segments for the second quarter in a row, reflecting supply chain challenges. In every segment besides residential, year-over-year price increases were the highest they’ve been since 2014 when Wood Mackenzie began tracking pricing data,” last week’s Solar Market Insight Report 2021 Q4 by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie showed.
It looks like uncertainty will be the single biggest theme in oil and gas markets in 2022.
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