据美国钻井网站报道，惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究公司(Fitch Solutions Country Risk&Industry research)的分析师们日前在发给美国钻井网站Rigzone的一份新报告中透露了他们2022年全球油气行业的关键主题。
一个这样的主题是预测明年上半年石油市场将从供应不足转向供应过剩。惠誉解决方案分析师们认为，这一变化将导致油价走低，并可能导致欧佩克+和非欧佩克成员国之间的产量分化。
分析师们在报告中表示：“尽管今年年底出现了奥密克戎毒株，但欧佩克+已证实，他们将继续每月日增40万桶原油产量。”
惠誉解决方案分析师们在报告中补充称：“尽管有人担心需求增长正在放缓，而奥密克戎毒株的影响仍不清楚，但这个主题再加上美国将在2022年初协调释放战略石油储备的原油，人们届时将看到更多的石油供应进入市场。”
惠誉解决方案分析师们指出，另一个主题是，预计美国在2022年的油气产量将大幅攀升，原油、天然气厂液体和其他液体日产量将达到145万桶或同比增长8.5%。
分析师们在报告中表示：“尽管页岩行业的独立上市公司对大幅增加投资持保留态度，但油气产量还是走高了。”
相反，美国页岩行业的大多数上市公司可能会通过分红和股票回购来继续关注股东的回报，而不是更大幅度的增加产量。 私营企业、技术进步和持续的钻井效率将推动更高的增长。
惠誉解决方案分析师们继续说道：“尽管在2021年，已开钻但未完钻井的数量有所下降，这可能针对的是产量最好和最高的地区，但我们预计，由于新探区的钻井活动增加，效率的提高和已提高的初始产量将持续下去，而不是下降。”
投资将远离上游 亚洲大国下游投资增加
惠誉解决方案分析师们在新报告还预测，全球油气投资将从上游向低碳领域努力倾斜。
报告说，“越来越多的上市公司将加大减少运营对气候影响的承诺，这将使资本从传统的上游投资转向低碳投资。”
分析师们还指出，鉴于美国的气候承诺、需求停滞以及老旧炼油厂利润率前景不佳，长期以来认为亚洲大国将在2022年成为下游最大炼油国的观点似乎已成定势。
惠誉解决方案分析师们表示：“美国为遏制气候变化影响而加大的努力，将进一步增加对炼油厂的监管负担。”
他们补充称：“对于炼油设备不太复杂的老炼油厂来说，由于合规成本预计将增加，这将迫使他们炼油利润率下降。”
分析师们继续说道，“另一方面，亚洲大国将从不断增长的新生炼油能力以及政府在转型环境法规以应对气候变化方面更加支持中获益。”
伍德麦肯兹全球上游展望
在近日发给美国钻井网站的另一份声明中，伍德麦肯兹上游研究副总裁弗雷泽·麦凯表示，全球上游行业将在2022年面临“不确定性峰值”，现金流将达到创纪录水平，但新油气项目的审查过程将越来越严格。
麦凯在声明中表示，“在布伦特原油价格为每桶70美元左右的情况下，油气现金流将接近历史最高水平。 如果油价为每桶80美元，油气现金流在税后、资本支出后、融资前和股息基础上将飙升至1万亿美元。”
“尽管如此，对许多利益相关者、甚至一些首席执行官来说，这个行业的风险大于其优势。 这种紧张局势将界定2022年。”
麦凯指出，在联合国气候变化框架公约第26届缔约方会议之前，为石油和天然气融资变得越来越困难，并补充说，明年的压力将会越来越大。
麦凯说，“管理超过130万亿美元资产的金融机构已加入承诺净零排放的格拉斯哥金融联盟。我们将拭目以待，投资者的资金池将萎缩，借贷成本将上升，石油项目融资将变得更加困难。”
麦凯补充道，“但放贷将不会立即枯竭，而天然气——尤其是与煤炭退役或CCS相关的天然气——将幸免于最坏的情况。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Key Oil and Gas Themes for 2022|
Analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research have revealed their “key” oil and gas themes for 2022 in a new report sent to Rigzone on Monday.
One such theme is a forecast that oil markets will shift from undersupply to oversupply in the first half of next year. The change should lead to lower oil prices and a potential divergence in production between OPEC+ and non-OPEC members, according to Fitch Solutions analysts.
“Despite the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021, OPEC+ have confirmed they will continue with a monthly production increase of 400,000 barrels per day,” the analysts stated in the report.
“This, combined with the coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves orchestrated by the U.S. over the early months of 2022, will see increased supply come onto the market despite concerns that demand growth is slowing and with the impact of Omicron still unclear,” the analysts added in the report.
Another theme is that U.S. output is expected to climb “substantially” in 2022 with crude, NGPL and other liquids production posting gains of 1.45 million barrels per day, or 8.5 percent year on year, Fitch Solutions analysts outlined.
“The move higher comes despite reticence from publicly-listed independents in the shale patch to substantially raise investment,” the analysts stated in the report.
“Instead, most publicly traded firms in the U.S. shale patch are likely to continue favoring shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks over more expansive production growth. Higher growth will be fueled by private firms, technology improvements and sustained drilling efficiency,” the analysts added.
“Despite the drawdown in drilled but uncompleted wells across 2021, which likely targeted the best and highest output areas, we expect efficiency gains and increased initial production rates to persist rather than decline as new acreage is drilled,” they continued.
Investment to Tilt Away from Upstream, China Downstream Rise
The report also projects that oil and gas investment will tilt away from upstream to low carbon efforts.
“Increasingly, publicly-listed firms will ramp up commitments to reduce climate impacts from operations. This will divert capital from traditional upstream investments to low carbon investments,” Fitch Solutions analysts said.
The analysts also noted that the long-held view of the biggest country in Asia’s emergence as the top downstream refiner looks poised to take place in 2022, in light of U.S. climate commitments, stagnating demand and the poor outlook for refinery margins for older facilities.
“Increased efforts in the U.S. to stem the impacts of climate change will further increase the regulatory burden on refineries,” the analysts said.
“In the case of older facilities with less complex refining slates, it will force margins lower as the cost of compliance is expected to increase,” they added.
“The biggest country in Asia, on the other hand, will benefit from the younger age of refining capacity and a more supportive government hand in transitioning environmental regulations to combat climate change,” the analysts continued.
Wood Mackenzie Global Upstream Outlook
In a separate statement sent to Rigzone on Monday, Wood Mackenzie’s vice president of upstream research, Fraser McKay, said the upstream sector is going into 2022 facing “peak uncertainty”, with record cash flows but increasing scrutiny.
“At a Brent price of around $70 per barrel, oil and gas cash flows will be at near-record levels. At $80 per barrel, it would soar towards $1 trillion (on a post-tax, post-capex, pre-financing and dividends basis),” McKay said in the statement.
“Despite this, for many stakeholders and even some chief executives, the sector’s risks outweigh its upsides. This tension will define 2022,” McKay added in the statement.
McKay noted that financing oil and gas was getting harder before COP26 and added that the pressure will ratchet up next year.
“Institutions with over $130 trillion of capital under management have joined the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero. Watch for the pool of backers to shrink, borrowing costs to increase and project financing for oil to get harder,” he said.
“But lending will not dry up immediately. And gas – especially where aligned with coal retirement or CCS – will be spared the worst,” McKay added.
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