据阿拉伯贸易网 2021年12月18日麦纳麦报道，尽管采取了放弃化石燃料的行动，但石油行业的未来仍将一片光明。 然而，石油行业将面临巨大的挑战，比如充足的供应和不断萎缩的投资市场，这是由于股东们要求投资更清洁的能源。
这是巴林石油大臣谢赫·穆罕默德·本·哈利法·阿勒·哈利法在12月14日至15日在巴林首都麦纳麦举行的2021年中东石油技术大会上发表的观点。
哈利法在演讲中预测石油行业前景将看涨，摩根大通等保守银行预测，到2023年前油价将达到每桶150美元。哈利法表示，这意味着市场将存在供应问题。
哈利法表示，全球冠状病毒疫情让每个人都意识到，炼油行业的反周期性并非绝对存在。“我们第一次面临非常低的油价和极低的炼油利润率。”
他说，过去两年对石油行业来说非常艰难。没有人想到疫情会对需求造成如此严重的打击。 WTI原油价格历史上首次出现负值，全球市场每年损失3000万桶原油。
哈利法表示，在过去的7年中，与2015年油价暴跌后的投资水平相比，油气行业损失了1万亿美元的投资。这种投资不足导致供应短缺问题。不过，人们希望，经济的周期性质将导致需求上升、价格上涨，从而提高炼油利润率。
哈利法表示，需求不会消失，事实上会持续很长一段时间。
哈利法对与会者强调说：“我要告诉你们，世界对我们石油行业的需求超出了投资的范围。 预计原油价格将会非常高。”
“但有明确信号表明，石油行业对供应问题感到担忧。 在全球需求不断增长的情况下，有预测称供应会紧张，”哈利法如是说。
哈利法解释道：“通常情况下，如果你们看原油的远期曲线，人们会认为未来原油价格会更低。 这意味着预测是悲观的。 相反，这告诉你们，由于供应不足，他们今天愿意就支付溢价。”
然而，挑战在于投资不够。
他呼吁石油行业开始用不同的方式思考。“还有很多事情要做，而我们做得还不够。”
投资挑战
炼油厂是非常复杂的技术和工程项目——考虑到目前正在进行的深度转变——因此需要数十亿美元的资金和很长的时间来完成。
为了给炼油厂提供资金，一个由银行、出口信贷机构、金融机构和商业部门组成的综合财团将发挥作用。
由于监管规定，银行无法出售融资，因此需要出口信贷机构。 但这也越来越难获得。例如，英国出口信贷机构英国出口融资署(UK export Finance)已决定不为石油和天然气项目提供融资。
哈利法表示：“如果这种趋势继续下去，可以想象，为这些大型油气项目获得融资将非常困难。”
他补充说，“现在监管环境不断变化，我们不知道未来会发生什么。”
这位巴林石油大臣指出，另一个投资挑战是全球环境、社会和治理(ESG)驱动，这使得为油气项目融资变得更加困难。
深度转变在能源转型中的作用
哈利法对能源转型的速度表示怀疑，他说，这将比预期的时间更长，与人们认为未来10年或20年就会出现的情况截然相反。
然而，他表示，“我们需要与碳排放的叙事接轨。”他列举了美国在减少碳排放方面取得的成功，他说，这不是通过国家政策，而是通过允许技术形成。
“深度转变业务正是这样做的，”哈利法如是说。
“当你推进转变进程，你是在减少碳和增加氢， 正如你注入来自天然气的氢时，你增加了氢的含量而减少了碳的含量。”
哈利法还对石油和天然气行业管理不善提出了警告，并提到了欧洲天然气危机的例子。
“一旦你管理不善，你就会遇到现实打击。 当人们突然没有暖气、电或交通工具时，他们是不会原谅的，”哈利法如是说。
李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易网
原文如下：
Future of oil is bright but fraught with challenges: Minister
The future of the oil sector is bright despite moves to abandon fossil fuel. It, however, faces big challenges, such as adequate supply and a shrinking investment market, which is led by a shareholders demand to invest in cleaner energy.
These were the views expressed by Shaikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Khalifa, Bahrain’s Minister of Oil, at the recently–concluded Middle East Bottom of the Barrel and Catalyst Technology Conference, BBTC Mena 2021, held from December 14-15 in Bahrain.
He forecast a bullish outlook for the oil sector, rationalising it with oil price projections of $150 by 2023 by conservative banks like JP Morgan and which he said meant there was a supply problem.
Shaikh Mohammed said the global coronavirus pandemic had made everyone realise that the counter cyclicality of refining was not an absolute given. “For the first time we had very low oil prices and extremely low refining margins.”
The past two years have been very rough for the oil sector. No one imagined the pandemic could have hit the demand so hard. WTI crude went negative for the first time in history, and global markets losing 30 million barrels a year.
In the past seven years, the oil and gas sector lost a trillion dollars in investments when compared to the levels of investment after the 2015 oil price crash.
Such underinvestment leads to supply problems. However, it is hoped the cyclical nature of the economy will lead to rising demand, better prices and thus better refining margins.
Demand, Shaikh Mohammed said, was not going away and will in fact continue for a long time.
He categorially said: “I am telling you that the demand coming for our industries is beyond the investments. Expect very high prices.”
But there were clear signals the industry was worried about the supply issue. There was forecast of tight supply amid a growing global demand.
Shaikh Mohammed explained: “Typically if you look at the forward curve of crude, people think that it's lower in the future. That means that the forecasts are pessimistic. On the contrary, that tells you that they are willing to pay a premium today because of the lack of supply.”
However, the challenge was not having invested enough.
He called for the industry to start thinking differently. “There's a lot to do, and we are not doing enough.”
INVESTMENT CHALLENGES
Refineries are very complicated technological and engineering projects — given the deep conversion being installed today — and thus require billions of dollars in finance and a long time to complete.
To fund them, a complex consortium of finance houses, including banks, export credit agencies, financial institutions, and commercial tranches come into play.
And with banks unable to sell finance because of regulations, there is the need for export credit agencies. But that too is getting harder to obtain.
For example, the British export credit agency, UK Export Finance, has decided not to finance oil and gas projects.
“If this trend continues, you can imagine that getting finance for these mega projects is going to be very difficult,” Shaikh Mohammed said.
“And now with an ever-changing landscape of regulations, we don't know what's going to happen in the future,” he added.
Another investment challenge the minister noted was the global ESG (environmental, social, and governance) drive, which was making financing hydrocarbon projects all the more difficult.
ROLE OF DEEP ConVERSION IN ENERGY TRANSITION
Shaikh Mohammed was skeptical about the pace of energy transition, which he said was going to take longer than anticipated, much contrary to people thinking it would be here in the next decade or two.
However, he said we need to get onboard with the narrative of carbon emissions.
Making a case for deep conversion in reducing carbon emissions, he cited the US’s success in reducing its carbon emissions, which he said wasn’t through state policies, but by allowing technology to take shape.
“The business of deep conversion does exactly that,” he said.
“When you add conversion, you are reducing carbon and increasing hydrogen. As you inject hydrogen, which comes from gas, you're increasing the hydrogen content and reducing the carbon content,” Shaikh Mohammed said.
He also warned against mismanaging the oil and gas sector and alluded to the European gas crisis example.
“once you mismanage the sector, you meet reality. And people are not going to be forgiving when suddenly they don’t have heat, electricity or transport
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