据彭博社1月5日消息：美国石油期货交易价格高于75美元，但每年数十亿美元的大宗商品投资重组将引发一轮抛售。
每年1月，全球两大大宗商品指数：标普GSCI指数和彭博商品指数都会重新调整，从而刺激大宗商品市场的大量资金流入和流出。据法国兴业银行估计，对西得克萨斯中质油(WTI)而言，这意味着追踪这两个基准的投资可能准备好从市场上撤出价值近6,000万桶的期货合约。
这家法国银行去年11月估计，这些资金流的美元价值非常可观，约为46亿美元。根据12月的一份报告，花旗集团预计将售出约31亿美元的股票。每种指数都有五天的波动期，第一个波动期从1月的第五个工作日开始，不过交易员往往会提前进行持仓。
资金流动的压力将打击美国基准原油期货合约，因为需求复苏且欧佩克及其盟友的供应仍然受限，这有助于消耗库存，而此时价格仍处于高位。西得克萨斯中质原油目前的价格距离2014年10月以来的最高点还差10美元左右。
虽然没有明确估计跟踪BCOM和标普GSCI的资金有多少，但前者去年表示，随后的资产超过1000亿美元。彭博指数服务有限公司是彭博指数(包括BCOM)的管理人，是彭博有限公司的全资子公司。
管理资产总额的数字很重要，因为它们在一定程度上决定了再平衡的价值。如果管理的资产较大，则再平衡的规模可能会增加。
决定资金流动规模的其他重要因素包括2021年各大宗商品的表现、生产水平和总体交易量。
冯娟 摘译自 彭博社
原文如下：
U.S. Oil Market Braces for a $4.6 Billion Wave of Selling
U.S. oil futures are trading above $75 but the yearly reshuffling of billions of dollars of commodity investments are about to trigger a sharp bout of selling.
Every January, the world’s two biggest commodities indexes -- the GSCI Index and the Bloomberg Commodities Index -- reset, spurring a raft of inflows and outflows across commodity markets. For WTI, that means investments tracking both benchmarks could be ready to pull almost 60 million barrels worth of futures contracts from the market, according to Societe Generale estimates.
The dollar value of those flows is significant -- the French bank estimated in November it would be the equivalent of about $4.6 billion. Citigroup Inc. expects about $3.1 billion of selling, according to a December report. The flows occur during a five-day roll period for each index, the first of which begins on the fifth working day of January, though traders often position themselves ahead of time.
The pressure from financial flows will hit the benchmark U.S. crude futures contract at a time when prices remain elevated as recovering demand and still-constrained supply from OPEC and its allies help drain inventories. West Texas Intermediate’s current price is about $10 short of reaching the highest since October 2014.
While there’s no definitive estimate of how much money tracks BCOM and GSCI, the former said last year it’s followed by more than $100 billion in assets. Bloomberg Index Services Ltd., the administrator of Bloomberg Indices, including BCOM, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg LP.
The figures for total assets under management matter because they, in part, dictate the value of the rebalancing. If assets under management are larger, then the size of the rebalancing can increase.
Other significant factors determining the scale of the flows are how individual commodities performed in 2021, production levels and overall trading volumes.
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