• 在水力压裂革命让美国页岩油气行业现金流枯竭、负债累累之后，华尔街加大了对油气行业的压力，要求它们削减债务并提高股东价值
• 在2021年油价上涨期间，美国页岩行业表现出了令人难以置信的克制
• 新井的投资比2014年的峰值下降了60%，这可能会在2022年推高油价
据美国油价网报道，长期饱受失控性通货膨胀之苦的美国人终于得到了喘息的机会。 美国汽车协会(AAA)的数据显示，在持续攀升之后，美国汽油价格一直在下降，全国平均汽油价格跌至每加仑3.28美元，为10周以来的最低点，然而专家们认为这只是一付创可贴。 虽然很多人把油价高企归咎于政府，但真正的罪魁祸首是华尔街，而不是宾夕法尼亚大道。
美国如今的高油价的根源可以追溯到石油公司的财务压力，10年来灾难性的亏损和糟糕的股东回报迫使石油公司大幅改变商业模式。 多年来，在水力压裂革命导致美国页岩行业现金流失、负债累累之后，华尔街一直在向油气公司施压，要求它们削减资本支出，并将现金转移到提高股息和回购股票、偿还债务以及脱碳等财务目标上。
因此，新井的投资自2014年峰值以来暴跌了60%，导致美国原油日产量在新冠肺炎疫情爆发之际暴跌了300多万桶，跌幅近25%，之后原油产量未能随着经济复苏而复苏。
没有新的钻井活动
由于华尔街紧盯不放，美国页岩行业实际上空运行：美国能源信息署（EIA）的最新钻井生产力报告显示，美国在2021年7月有5957口已开钻但未完钻（DUCs）井，这是2017年11月以来任何月份美国DUC数最少的一个月。美国DUC数在2019年曾达到8900口。 按照这个减少速度，美国页岩生产商将不得不大幅增加新井的钻井量，才能维持目前的原油产量。
EIA表示，美国大多数主要陆上产油区的DUC数急剧下降，反映出完井数量增加，同时新钻井活动减少，这证明页岩生产商一直在坚持减少钻井作业的承诺。 尽管更多井的完井提高了原油产量，特别是在二叠系盆地的原油产量，但完井也大幅降低了DUC库存，这可能会极大地限制美国未来几个月的原油产量增长。
投产水平井、水力压裂井的两个主要阶段是钻井和完井阶段。 钻井阶段包括派遣钻机和钻井队，然后钻井工人在一个钻井平台上钻一口或多口井。 下一个阶段，即完井阶段，通常由不同的钻井队工人完成，包括下套管、固井、射孔和水力压裂生产。 一般来说，钻井和完井之间的时间间隔是几个月，这导致了大量的DUC库存，生产商可以将其作为工作库存来管理石油生产。
根据标普资本智商公司公布的统计数据，2004年至2014年，美国27家主要石油生产商的资本支出增加了两倍，达到了2940亿美元，然后在2020年削减至1110亿美元。 一旦老井被封顶，新井就无法迅速填补生产缺口。 问题是上市石油公司的这种限制不知道会持续多久。 预计2022年资本支出将达到1350亿美元左右，同比增长21.6%，但仍不及2014年投资水平的一半。
股东回报
除了严格限制新的钻井活动以外，美国页岩公司也一直在兑现其承诺，以股息和股票回购的形式向股东返还更多现金。
美国进步倡导团体网站Accountable.US最近刊登的一份报告说，美国24家大型能源公司中有16家2021年提高了股息，11家公司支付了总计超过365亿美元的特别股息。考虑到美国油气行业2021年公布的利润为1740亿美元，这是一个相当可观的派息率。 事实上，“可变股息”可以让油气公司在形势好的时候提高股息，在形势不好的时候降低股息，这已经成为油气公司最喜欢的派息工具。
与此同时，尽管埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司已承诺在未来两年内回购多达200亿美元的股票，但油气公司已在股票回购上花费了80亿美元。2021年，能源行业的股票上涨强劲，这可以解释为什么投资者不愿在股票回购上花太多钱。
然而，油价在未来一年可能保持高位的最重要原因是欧佩克的纪律: 石油价格信息服务公司总裁汤姆· 克洛萨日前在接受美国全国广播公司财经频道(CNBC)采访时风趣地表示：“这个卡特尔传统上就像美国男星查理·辛的酗酒行为一样有纪律，但到2020年，这个卡特尔就变得像奥运体操运动员一样有纪律。”
石油短缺
根据国际能源署的数据，2022年全球原油日消费量预计将从2021年的9620万桶提高到9953万桶，仅略低于2019年的9955万桶。 当然，这将取决于世界能否迅速控制新冠病毒的奥密克戎变种。
更高的原油需求将给欧佩克和美国页岩行业带来满足需求的压力。 但我们不要忘记，许多欧佩克国家已经在努力增加产量，而美国页岩行业必须应对投资者的需求，以维持支出。 到目前为止，美国页岩行业并未像以往那样对油价上涨做出反应，2021年美国的平均原油日产量为1120万桶，而2019年末的创纪录日产量为近1300万桶。挪威著名能源研究公司雷斯塔能源公司（ Rystad Energy）的分析高级副总裁Claudio Galimberti表示，到2022年，美国的原油日产量预计只增加70万桶，至1190万桶。
加拿大、挪威、圭亚那和巴西可能试图弥补全球石油供需缺口，但一些华尔街投资者认为，这还不够，油价将继续走高。
事实上，巴克莱银行预测，2022年美国WTI原油合同价格将从目前的每桶73美元涨至77美元，并指出政府出售战略石油储备的原油并不是一个可持续的降低油价的方法。 巴克莱银行表示，如果疫情影响降至最低，从而使需求增长超过预期，原油价格可能会高于预期。
高盛投资银行认同这一乐观展望，并预测到2023年前布伦特原油价格将达到每桶85美元，而布伦特原油价格目前为每桶76.30美元。
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
Chronic Underinvestment Could Push Oil Prices Higher In 2022
· After the fracking revolution left the U.S. shale patch bleeding cash and deeply indebted. Wall Street ramped up pressure on companies to cut debt and boost shareholder value.
· The U.S. shale industry has exercised incredible restraint during this year’s oil price rally.
· Consequently, investment in new wells has crashed 60% since its peak in 2014, which could send oil prices higher in 2022.
Long-suffering Americans grappling with runaway inflation are finally enjoying some reprieve. After a relentless climb, prices at the pump have been heading south, with national average gas prices tumbling to a 10-week low of $3.28 a gallon, according to AAA. Fuel prices started leveling out after U.S.announced on November 23 the biggest-ever release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, though experts have dismissed it as a mere band-aid. Whereas many people have placed the blame for high gas prices on the Biden administration, the real culprit has more to do with Wall Street than Pennsylvania Avenue.
The genesis of today's high gas prices can be traced back to financial pressure on oil companies from a decade of devastating losses and poor shareholder returns that have forced them to dramatically alter their business models. For years, Wall Street has pressured oil and gas companies to cut capex, and shift their cash to financial goals like boosting dividends and buybacks, paying down debt, as well as decarbonization, after the fracking revolution left the U.S. shale patch bleeding cash and deeply indebted.
Consequently, investment in new wells has crashed 60% since its peak in 2014, causing U.S. crude oil production to plummet by more than 3 million barrels a day, or nearly 25%, just as the Covid virus hit, and then failed to recover with the economy.
No drilling
With Wall Street breathing down its neck, U.S. shale is literally running on empty: according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest Drilling Productivity Report, the United States had 5,957 drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in July 2021, the lowest for any month since November 2017 from nearly 8,900 at its 2019 peak. At this rate, shale producers will have to sharply ramp up the drilling of new wells just to maintain the current production clip.
The EIA says the sharp decline in DUCs in most major U.S. onshore oil-producing regions reflects more well completions and, at the same time, less new well drilling activity--proof that shale producers have been sticking to their pledge to drill less. Whereas the higher completion rate of more wells has been increasing oil production, especially in the Permian region, the completions have sharply lowered DUC inventories, which could sharply limit oil production growth in the United States in the coming months.
The two main stages in bringing a horizontally drilled, hydraulically fractured well online are drilling and completion. The drilling phase involves dispatching a drilling rig and crew, who then drill one or more wells on a pad site. The next phase, well completion, is typically performed by a separate crew and involves casing, cementing, perforating, and hydraulically fracturing the well for production. In general, the time between the drilling and completion stages is several months, leading to a significant inventory of DUCs that producers can maintain as working inventory to manage oil production.
According to S&P Capital IQ data, 27 major oil makers tripled capital spending between 2004 and 2014 to $294 billion and then cut it to $111 billion by last year. once old wells were capped, new ones haven't been available to fill the production gap quickly. The question is how long the restraint by publicly traded oil companies will last. Capital spending is expected to clock in around $135 billion next year, good for a 21.6% Y/Y jump but still less than half 2014's level.
Shareholder returns
Other than severely limiting new drilling activity, U.S. shale has also been keeping its pledge to return more cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks.
A recent report by progressive advocacy group Accountable.us says that 16 of 24 large U.S. energy companies have raised their dividends this year, while 11 made special dividend payouts totaling more than $36.5 billion. That's a pretty impressive payout ratio considering that the sector has so far reported $174 billion in profits this year. Indeed, "variable dividends" that allow companies to hike dividends when times are good and to lower them when the going gets tough has become a favorite tool for oil and gas companies.
Meanwhile, oil and gas companies have spent a more modest $8 billion in share buybacks, though ExxonMobil ((NYSE:XOM)and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have pledged to buy back as much as $20 billion of stock in the next two years. The energy sector has made robust share gains in the current year, which could explain the reluctance to spend too much on share repurchases.
The most important reason, however, why oil prices are likely to remain high in the coming year is OPEC discipline:
"You have a cartel that is traditionally as disciplined as Charlie Sheen's drinking, and for the last year, they've been as disciplined as Olympic gymnasts," Tom Kloza, president of Oil Price Information Service, has hilariously told CNBC.
Oil shortage
According to the IEA, crude consumption is expected to improve to 99.53 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 96.2 million bpd this year, leaving it just a hair short of 2019's daily consumption of 99.55 million barrels. That will, of course, depend on the world bringing the new Omicron variant of Covid-19 quickly under control.
Higher oil demand will put pressure on both OPEC and the U.S. shale industry to meet demand. But let's not forget that numerous OPEC nations have already been struggling to add to output, while the U.S. shale industry has to deal with investor demands to hold the line on spending. So far, the U.S. shale industry has not responded to higher oil prices as they had done previously, with overall U.S. production averaged 11.2 million bpd in 2021 compared with a record of nearly 13 million bpd in late 2019. U.S. production is expected to only increase by 700,000 b/d in 2022 to 11.9 b/d, according to Rystad Energy's senior vice-president of analysis, Claudio Galimberti.
Canada, Norway, Guyana, and Brazil could try to bridge the supply-demand gap, but several Wall Street punters are betting it will not be enough and oil prices will remain elevated.
In fact, Barclays has predicted that the WTI contract price will increase from the current rate of $73 to an average price of $77 in 2022, noting that the administration's sale of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve isn't a sustainable way to bring down prices. Barclays says prices could go even higher than that forecast if COVID-19 outbreaks are minimized and thus allow demand to grow more than expected.
Goldman Sachs shares that bullish outlook and has predicted a Brent price of $85 per barrel by 2023 compared to the current $76.30.
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