据全球能源新闻网1月3日报道，美国能源信息署 (EIA) 在其 12 月短期能源展望 (STEO) 中预测，美国干天然气产量将从2021年10月的951亿立方英尺/天增至2022年12月的975亿立方英尺/天，创历史新高。此前的月度纪录是在2019年11月创下的972亿立方英尺/天。
2020年初，与疫情相关的需求下降导致了相应的天然气价格下降和钻井量减少。因此，2020年5月，天然气月度产量降至873亿立方英尺/天的低点。从那时起，美国的干天然气产量总体上呈上升趋势，2021年2月有一个短暂的例外，当时冬季天气大大减少了得克萨斯州的天然气产量。
美国天然气产量增长的预测包括天然气导向钻井活动的预期产量以及与原油生产（伴生气）相关的天然气产量。根据在《钻井产能报告》中编制的指标，在海恩斯维尔地区（主要在得克萨斯州和路易斯安那州）和阿巴拉契亚盆地（主要在宾夕法尼亚州和西弗吉尼亚州），钻井活动的增加和单井产量的增加导致近几个月来天然气产量增加。伴生天然气产量也有所增加，因为生产商已经完成了之前已钻探但尚未完成的油井（DUC井）。
根据贝克休斯公司的数据，2019年和2020年上半年，主要在含天然气地层中钻探的天然气导向钻机数量减少。到2020年8月底，天然气导向钻机数量已经下降到68台，这是贝克休斯可以追溯到1987年数据系列中最少的。自2021年11月中旬以来，天然气导向钻机的数量已增至102台。钻机数量被视为新钻井的领先指标，但钻井效率（每台钻机可钻新井的数量）和新井产量的增加使钻机数量和最终产量之间的关系变得复杂。
郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网
原文如下：
EIA – USA WILL ESTABLISH NEW MonTHLY NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IN 2022
In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will increase from 95.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in October 2021 to 97.5 Bcf/d by December 2022, a new record high. The previous monthly record of 97.2 Bcf/d was set in November 2019.
In early 2020, COVID-19-associated declines in demand resulted in a corresponding natural gas price decrease and reduced drilling. As a result, monthly natural gas production declined to a low of 87.3 Bcf/d in May 2020. Dry natural gas production in the United States has generally risen since then, with a brief exception in February 2021, when winter weather substantially reduced natural gas production in Texas.
The forecast for U.S. natural gas production growth includes expected output from natural gas-directed drilling activity as well as natural gas production associated with crude oil production (associated gas). In both the Haynesville region (mainly in Texas and Louisiana) and the Appalachia Basin (mainly in Pennsylvania and West Virginia), increased drilling activity and greater output per well have led to more natural gas production in recent months, according to metrics compiled in our Drilling Productivity Report. Associated natural gas production has also increased as producers have completed wells that were previously drilled but uncompleted (DUC wells).
The number of natural gas-directed rigs—rigs drilled primarily in natural gas-bearing formations—decreased throughout 2019 and the first half of 2020, based on data from the Baker Hughes Company. By late August 2020, the natural gas-directed rig count had fallen to 68 rigs, the fewest in Baker Hughes’s data series, which dates back to 1987. The number of natural gas-directed rigs has since increased to 102 in mid-November 2021. Rig counts are considered a leading indicator of newly drilled wells, but increases in drilling efficiency (the number of new wells each rig can drill) and new-well production have complicated the relationship between rig counts and eventual production.
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