据今日油价1月5日报道，石油市场看起来越来越乐观，因为分析师认为新变异毒株对全球石油需求的影响将是有限的。
据彭博社报道，波斯湾能源公司在2021年间借了305亿美元，这是至少25年来的最高水平，因为这些地区的国家石油公司寻求外国投资来资助他们雄心勃勃的计划。
卡塔尔能源公司是所有国家石油公司中的领头羊，在2021年7月出售了125亿美元债券(去年最大新兴市场债券)，作为其液化天然气产能扩张融资的一部分。
沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)在前几年借款名单上占据主导地位，在2021年排名第三，仅次于QE和ADNOC，“仅”筹集了65亿美元，是2020年的三分之一。
全球能源转型正在软化中东产油国传统上自给自足的地位，他们更多地选择出售和分享，同时寻求从其巨大的油气储量中获得最大收益。
市场推动者
美国石油巨头埃克森美孚表示，受天然气价格上涨带来10亿美元意外收入的提振，预计2021年第四季度利润将比上一季度增长19亿美元。
美国LNG开发商NextDecade Corp表示，由于相对较低的天然气价格阻碍了长期供应合同签订，其157亿美元Rio Grande LNG项目最终投资决定将再次推迟，这已经是第二次了。
欧洲人权法庭介入评估挪威石油巨头Equinor公司在北极海域的开采是否侵权，该公司生产计划可能面临风险。
1月4日，石油市场情绪出现了明显转变，越来越多的人预测，由于没有大范围封锁，欧米克隆变异毒株对需求的破坏不会像之前的变异毒株那么糟糕。果然，关键地区病例一直在攀升，但各国政府不愿再次重复2020/2021年的政策。12月石油需求保持稳定，基本接近11月水平，同时全球制造业活动在供应链瓶颈缓解背景下增强。因此，对更多欧佩克+原油的看涨预期绝不是矛盾的，尤其是考虑到其他地方供应中断。因此，洲际交易所布伦特原油本周的交易价格突破了每桶80美元关口，而美国基准WTI原油则徘徊在每桶77.5美元左右。
欧佩克+同意在二月份再次增加产量。由欧佩克和俄罗斯等非成员国组成石油生产国集团同意将每月40万桶供应增量延长至2022年2月，理由是市场对欧米克隆过度担忧不会对未来全球需求产生重大影响。
欧佩克新秘书长誓言保持“欧佩克+协议”。科威特石油行业资深人士Haitham al-Ghais是欧佩克新当选的秘书长，将于2022年8月1日接替尼日利亚穆罕默德·巴尔金多（Mohammad Barkindo），他发誓要让延长后的欧佩克+在2022年底逐步退出后继续存在。
麦克德莫特赢得卡塔尔液化天然气扩张协议。美国工程公司McDermott (OTCMKTS:MCDIF)获得了卡塔尔液化设施主要建设合同(13个井口平台上部和周围基础设施)，该公司产能将增至每年1.26亿吨。
ADNOC将很快完成洞穴储油。阿联酋国家石油公司ADNOC将很快在该国最大港口Fujairah进行原油储存能力大规模扩张，该港口设于地下洞穴，储存空间总计达4200万桶。
温暖天气帮助欧洲受压的天然气市场。气温远高于历史平均水平，缓解了欧洲天然气库存紧张的压力，并使日前TTF现货天然气价格跌破70欧元/ 百万英热(24美元/百万英热)，但今天由于俄罗斯供应仍然紧张的消息而反弹。
印尼煤炭出口禁令撼动市场。由于担心这个东南亚国家无法满足本国电力需求，全球主要动力煤出口国印度尼西亚的政府公司禁止了所有煤炭出口，这在天然气价格下跌的同时推高了煤炭价格。
英国石油公司和埃尼集团成为埃及许可谈判的焦点。英国能源公司bp和意大利石油巨头ENI是埃及最近一轮上游许可中最活跃的公司之一，共分配了8个区块，投资承诺为2.5亿美元。
德国离全面淘汰核能只有一步之遥。通过在新年前夕关闭布罗克多夫、格罗恩德和冈德雷明根核反应堆，德国目前只有三座核电站在运行，并将在2022年底前全面淘汰核电站，正如欧盟承认核能是一种可持续能源一样。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Sentiment Shifts In Oil Markets As Demand Fears Fade
Oil markets are looking increasingly bullish as analysts argue that the impact of Omicron on global oil demand will be limited
Energy companies from the Persian Gulf have borrowed 30.5 billion in 2021, according to Bloomberg, the highest level in at least 25 years as regional NOCs seek foreign investment to fund their ambitious plans.
- Qatar Energy was the leader amongst all NOCs, selling $12.5 billion of bonds in July 2021 (the biggest emerging-market offering of last year) as part of financing its LNG capacity expansion.
- Dominating the previous years’ borrowing lists, Saudi Aramco ranked only third in 2021 behind QE and ADNOC, having ‘only’ raised $6.5 billion, a third of what it did in 2020.
- The global energy transition is softening the traditionally self-reliant stance of Middle Eastern producers as they sell and share more, whilst seeking to maximize gains from their vast hydrocarbon reserves.
Market Movers
- US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) stated it expects Q4 2021 profit to be as much as $1.9 billion higher quarter-on-quarter, buoyed by a $1 billion quarterly windfall from a rally in natural gas prices.
- US LNG developer NextDecade Corp (NASDAQ:NEXT) stated that a final investment decision on its planned $15.7 billion Rio Grande LNG project would be delayed again, for the second time already, as relatively low gas prices hinder the conclusion of long-term supply contracts.
- Norway’s oil major Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) might see its production plans jeopardizedafter the European Court of Human Rights stepped in to assess whether drilling in the Arctic seas might constitute a breach of fundamental freedoms.
Tuesday, January 04, 2022
There has been a noticeable shift in sentiment in the oil market, with an increasing number of forecasts stating that demand destruction coming from the Omicron variant would not be as bad as previous variants due to the absence of widespread lockdowns. Sure enough, cases have been climbing in key areas, but governments are reluctant to repeat 2020/2021 policies again. Oil demand remained solid in December, essentially trending on par with November levels, whilst global manufacturing activity strengthened globally amidst easing supply chain bottlenecks. Thus, the bullish case for more OPEC+ crude is by no means paradoxical, especially when one considers all the supply-side disruptions in Libya and elsewhere. As a result, ICE Brent traded moved above the $80 per barrel threshold this week, whilst US benchmark WTI was hovering around $77.5 per barrel.
OPEC+ Agrees to Another Output Increase in February. The group of oil producers comprising OPEC and non-member participants including Russia agreed to extend the 400,000 b/d monthly supply increments into February 2022, arguing that overblown Omicron fears will not have a significant impact on global demand going forward.
New OPEC Secretary-General Vows to Keep OPEC+ Pact Alive. Kuwaiti oil sector veteran Haitham al-Ghais, OPEC’s newly-elected secretary-general that will replace Nigeria’s Mohammad Barkindo starting August 01, 2022, vowed to keep the extended OPEC+ alive beyond its assumed phase-out in late 2022.
EU Accused of Trying to Bury New Year’s Taxonomy Draft. Environmental groups unleashed an avalanche of criticism on the ‘sustainable finance taxonomy’ of the European Commission stipulating that both gas and nuclear are compatible with green objectives, arguing Brussels tried to bury it by issuing it on New Year’s Eve.
McDermott Wins Qatar LNG Expansion Deal. US engineering firm McDermott (OTCMKTS:MCDIF) was awarded a major construction contract (13 wellhead platform topsides and infrastructure around them) for Qatar’s liquefaction facilities that would see its production capacity rise to 126 million tons per year.
ADNOC to Finish Cavern Oil Storage Soon. The Emirati national oil company ADNOC will soon commission a major expansion of its crude oil storage capacity at the country’s largest port of Fujairah, set in underground caverns whose storage space total 42 million barrels of oil.
Warm Weather Helps Europe’s Pressured Gas Market. Temperatures well above the historical average have eased the pressure on Europe’s tight gas inventories and brought day-ahead TTF spot gas prices below €70 per MWh ($24 per mmBtu), only to bounce back today on the news of still-tight Russian supplies.
Indonesia Coal Export Ban Shakes Market. The government of Indonesia, the world’s leading thermal coal exporter, banned all coal exports out of concerns that the Southeast Asian country could not meet its own power demand, sending coal prices higher amidst falling natural gas quotes.
BP and ENI Take Centre Stage in Egypt Licensing Round. UK energy firm BP (NYSE:BP) and Italian oil major ENI (NYSE:E) have been amongst the most active in Egypt’s most recent upstream licensing round, with a total of 8 blocks allocated against a $250 million investment commitment.
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