·包括英国石油公司在内的许多预测者在2020年认为，全球石油需求峰值已经过去
·投资银行分析师似乎压倒性地预计，由于需求强劲而供应不那么强劲，油价将会上涨
·2022年全球石油需求将会更加强劲，即使第一季度需求会出现短暂下降
据美国油价网2021年12月28日报道，2020年，全球石油需求遭受了严重打击。 然后，石油需求开始反弹，比大多数人预期的要快得多。 由于绿色转型的推动，石油需求也将继续复苏到2022年以及之后的年份。包括英国石油公司在内的许多预测者在2020年认为，全球石油需求峰值已经过去，我们必须期待的是一个更加可再生的能源组合。 然后，随着全球主要市场的病例数量开始下降，石油需求开始上升。自那以来，需求强劲反弹，导致预测人士开始警告全球石油市场可能出现供应短缺。
沙特阿拉伯最近警告说，对新油气生产的投资不足将导致价格上涨和供应紧张。
沙特阿拉伯能源大臣阿卜杜勒-阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼王子12月早些时候表示：“如果没有足够的能源支出，我们将走向一个可能很危险的阶段。”他补充说，投资不足可能会导致“能源危机”。
由于石油和天然气行业的碳足迹，银行界感到越来越大的压力，要求银行停止与油气行业的业务往来，这也是需求预测与供应现实之间存在差异的原因之一。这很可能会加剧能源危机，如果这样一种危机真的很可能发生的话。
这种能源危机很有可能发生。 投资银行分析师似乎压倒性地预计，由于需求强劲而供应不那么强劲，油价将会上涨。 高盛投资银行分析师达明·库瓦林12月稍早时候表示，布伦特原油2022年可能触及每桶100美元。 摩根士丹利分析师以对奥密克戎毒株的担忧为由下调了他们对2022年第一季度石油价格的预期，但将第三季度布伦特原油价格预期从每桶85美元上调至90美元。
加拿大蒙特利尔银行集团预计，2022年全球石油需求将创下新纪录，并在未来几年里保持强劲增加，尽管2022年第一季度全球石油需求会暂时下降，这也是由于受到新冠病毒的奥密克戎变种的影响。
说到奥密克戎毒株，欧佩克在很大程度上没有理会其他人眼中的全球经济和石油需求面临的新威胁。 欧佩克的最新月度石油市场报告实际上提高了其对2022年第一季度全球石油需求的预测。
据欧佩克称，随着世界更好地应对疫情及其相关挑战，奥密克戎变异体对全球石油需求的影响将是“温和和短暂的”。
高盛投资银行分析师库瓦林似乎同意欧佩克这一观点。 路透社援引库瓦林最近的讲话内容报道说：“如果这是另一波我们以前看到过的疫情浪潮，那么它将对2022年第一季度的经济增长造成负面影响。”“但如果随后出现经济复苏，全球石油需求将在2022年的大部分时间里创下历史新高。2021年11月初，全球石油需求曾短暂触及疫情爆发前的水平。”
如果之前的疫情浪潮是任何迹象，那么这次疫情浪潮之后也会有复苏。 一个潜在的问题是供应商如何在短期内满足这种需求的能力。 对新石油生产的投资确实大幅下降，而且油气行业的许多企业——主要是超级石油巨头——仍然对更多的石油和天然气投资持谨慎态度，所以他们转而投资可再生能源产能。
然而，这可能会给油气行业的许多企业开一个糟糕的玩笑。 如果说欧洲能源危机教会了我们什么的话，那就是一个令人不快的事实：即使是绿色和可持续发展的欧洲，仍然严重依赖化石燃料。 而且，欧洲并不是最大的石油消费国之一，而新兴的亚洲却拥有这种兴趣，所有的预测都表明，未来几年亚洲的石油需求将进一步增长。
根据美国能源信息署（EIA）公布的统计数据，截至2021年10月，欧佩克+的备用日产能为511万桶。 然而，备用产能并不是静止不变的，10月份的统计数据实际上已比2021年初大幅下降，当时欧佩克的备用日产能为900万桶。 到2022年年底，这一数字可能进一步降至400万桶以下。
这种状况促使国际能源署(IEA)敦促加大对新石油生产的投资。 就在几个月前，IEA还呼吁停止所有新的油气投资，以实现全球净零排放目标。
因此，2022年全球石油需求将会更加强劲，即使第一季度在我们接受奥密克戎变种的时候会出现短暂的下降。 尽管需求增长强劲，但在ESG投资者和政府的压力下，供应增长将继续滞后。 2022年，石油市场无疑将迎来引人注目的一年。
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
Global Oil Demand Could Reach New Heights In 2022
· Many forecasters, including BP, in 2020 argued that peak oil was already past us
· Investment bank analysts seem to overwhelmingly expect higher prices because of strong demand and not-so-strong supply
· Next year will see even stronger oil demand, even with a temporary dip during the first quarter
Oil demand suffered a severe blow last year. Then the wave receded, and oil demand began to rebound, much faster than most expected. Despite the green transition push, demand will continue to recover into next year, too, and those after it. Many forecasters, including BP, in 2020 argued that peak oil was already past us and what we had to look forward to was a more renewable energy mix. And then Covid-19 case numbers in key markets began to decline, and oil demand began to rise. Since then, demand has rebounded so strongly that it has led forecasts to start warning of the possibility of a shortage.
Saudi Arabia recently warned that underinvestment in new oil and gas production would lead to higher prices and supply crunches.
"We're heading toward a phase that could be dangerous if there's not enough spending on energy," the Kingdom's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said earlier this month. Insufficient investment could lead to an "energy crisis," he added.
Banks are contributing to the discrepancy between demand forecasts and supply realities as they feel growing pressure to stop doing business with the oil and gas industry because of its carbon footprint. This may well exacerbate the energy crunch if such a crunch is indeed in the cards.
It probably is. Investment bank analysts seem to overwhelmingly expect higher prices because of strong demand and not-so-strong supply. Goldman Sachs' Damien Courvalin said earlier this month Brent crude could hit $100 next year. Morgan Stanley analysts slashed their first-quarter 2022 outlook for oil, citing omicron concerns but raised their third-quarter forecast to $90 per barrel of Brent, from $85 per barrel.
Canada's BMO Markets expects oil demand to hit a record next year and remain strong over the next few years as well despite a temporary dip in the first quarter, again because of the omicron variant of the coronavirus.
Speaking of omicron, OPEC has largely brushed off what others see as a new threat for global economies and oil demand. The cartel, in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report actually raised its demand forecast for the first quarter of next year.
According to the cartel, the effect of omicron on oil demand will be "mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage COVID-19 and its related challenges."
Goldman's Courvalin appears to agree with this view. "If this is another wave like the ones we've seen before then it is a negative hit to economic growth in the first quarter of 2022," he said recently, as quoted by Reuters. "But if there is a subsequent recovery, oil demand, which briefly touched pre-COVID levels in early November, would then be at new record highs for most of 2022."
If the previous Covid-19 waves are any indication, there will be a recovery after this wave, too. A potential problem would be the ability of suppliers to satisfy this demand beyond the short term. Investments in new oil production have indeed declined considerably, and many in the industry—chiefly the supermajors—are still wary of splashing on more oil and gas, so they splash instead on renewable power capacity.
This may play them a bad joke down the road, however. If the European energy crisis has taught us anything, it is the unpleasant fact that even green and sustainable Europe is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels. And Europe is not among the top consumers of oil—it's emerging Asia that has this pleasure, and all forecasts point towards this demand growing further in the coming years.
OPEC+'s spare capacity stood at 5.11 million bpd as of October this year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, spare capacity is not static, and the October figure is actually a substantial decline from the start of 2021 when spare capacity in the extended cartel stood at 9 million bpd. And it could fall further to less than 4 million bpd by the end of next year.
This state of affairs prompted the International Energy Agency, a vocal proponent of the energy transition, to urge more investments in new oil production. Just how serious the situation could become because of this discrepancy shows in the fact that just months earlier, the IEA had called for an end to all new oil and gas investments so the world can reach its net-zero targets.
So it appears that next year will see even stronger oil demand, even with a temporary dip during the first quarter while we come to terms with the omicron variant. And while demand grows stronger, supply growth will continue to lag behind under ESG investor and government pressure. Oil markets are certainly in for an interesting year in 2022.
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