据1月13日Neftegaz.RU.报道，Rystad Energy分析称，在经历了近几周剧烈波动后，本周天然气价格趋于平静，原因是去年大部分时间控制着整个欧洲和亚洲天然气价格的欧洲储量水平似乎终于有所改善，但供应方面担忧依然存在。
在欧洲，去年12月和今年1月，超过1000万吨液化天然气被淹没，帮助TTF价格降至约26美元/百万英热。
这已经超过了人们对亚马尔-欧洲(Yamal-Europe)天然气管道从德国流向波兰的担忧，目前这已连续第三周。另一个对价格不利的消息是，从库存中提取天然气的速度已经大幅放缓，目前每周仅为2.8%。
未来几天来自德国和英国的风力发电增加，可能也会给燃气发电带来压力。
然而，库存水平仅为53%，俄罗斯Valke Kapusany油田储量急剧下降，仅为12月初水平的一小部分，这些都为价格提供了支撑。
尽管北部和东部部分地区可能会经历更冷的天气，但该国许多地区气温预计将在未来几周上升，由于供暖需求增加，支撑了价格。
预计本周库存水平将达到2.9 万亿立方英尺，比5年平均水平高出约4%，这一因素可能至少在一定程度上缓解近期发生任何意外事件时的供应担忧。
亚洲市场活动依然不温不火，原因是市场预测气温基本正常，甚至高于正常水平，而且液化天然气库存充足。
印尼对煤炭供应的担忧似乎也有所缓解，印尼能源部暗示将结束1月1日实施的为期一个月的禁令，并逐步恢复出口。
大西洋和太平洋流域的即期租船费率已从11月的高点跌落悬崖，目前两者的每日租船费率均低于5万美元，这是因为在前往欧洲的途中，大西洋流域船只大量聚集，而亚洲整体需求低迷，购买兴趣已转移到2月和3月。
亚洲有限的购买活动也可能限制欧洲市场潜在的价格上行压力。
王佳晶 摘译自 Neftegaz.RU.
原文如下：
Gas markets calm on increased European storage, mild weather for consumers
Gas prices are calmed this week following much volatility in recent weeks as European storage levels, which have governed prices across Europe and Asia through most of last year, appear to be improving at last, but supply concerns persist, Rystad Energy analysed.
In Europe, an inundation of more than 10 million tonnes of LNG across December and month-to-date in January has helped calm TTF prices down to around $26/Mmbtu.
This influx has overshadowed concerns surrounding the reverse flow from Germany to Poland on the Yamal-Europe pipeline for what is now the 3rd week in a row.
In other bearish news for gas prices, the pace of withdrawals from storage has slowed considerably and is now at only 2.8% week on week.
Increased wind generation from Germany and the UK in the coming days may also weigh on gas-fired power generation.
However, prices are finding support from storage levels languishing at 53% of capacity and the steep drop in flows from Russia at Valke Kapusany to a fraction of levels seen in early December.
Temperatures in many regions of the country are expected to rise in the coming weeks, notwithstanding parts of the North and East which may experience even colder weather, supporting prices due to increased demand for heating.
We expect storage levels to end this week at 2.9 TCF, around 4% higher than the 5-year average, a factor that may at least partially alleviate supply concerns in the event of any unexpected deep freeze events in the immediate future.
Activity in Asian markets remains tepid on the back of largely normal and above normal temperature forecasts and brimming LNG inventories.
However, the incident may have influenced neighboring markets, with Uzbekistan halting gas exports to ensure domestic supply security.
We expect limited near-term impact, although the long-term implications would need to be assessed based on how long the export ban is in place and whether other Central Asian countries follow suit.
Coal supply concerns from Indonesia also appear to be easing, with the energy ministry signaling an end to the monthlong ban imposed on January 1 and a gradual resumption of exports.
Spot charter rates in the Atlantic and Pacific basins have fallen off a cliff from their November highs, with both now holding below $50,000 per day, pressured by the massive accumulation of vessels in the Atlantic basin on the way to Europe and the overall lackluster demand in Asia, where buying interest has shifted to February and March.
Limited buying activity in Asia may also cap any potential upward price pressure in the European markets.
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