据钻机地带1月12日报道，美国能源信息署 (EIA)在其1月份短期能源展望 (STEO)透露，该机构上调了2022年布伦特原油现货均价预测。
该机构目前预计，今年布伦特原油现货均价为74.95美元/桶，较EIA去年12月的STEO预测的70.05美元/桶高出4.9美元。
最新STEO预测，展望2023年，布伦特原油现货均价明年将首次跌至每桶67.50美元。EIA 1月份的STEO报告指出，2021年布伦特原油现货均价为每桶70.89美元。
在最新的STEO中，EIA预测2022年全球石油库存将以每天50万桶的速度增加，2023年将以每天60万桶的速度增加。EIA估计全球液体燃料库存在2021日均下降了140万桶。据说，2020年，日均增加210万桶。
该机构预计，2022年全球液体燃料日消耗量将增加360万桶，2023年将增加180万桶。2022年，欧佩克原油日产量预计将增加250万桶，达到2880万桶，2023年将进一步增加100000桶，达到2890万桶。
预计今年美国原油日均产量将达到1180万桶，2023年将达到创纪录的1240万桶。据显示，2021年美国原油日均产量为1120万桶。目前的纪录是2019年创下的1230万桶/天。
EIA 指出，其最新的STEO继续反映出由于持续的新冠疫情而导致的不确定性增强。
EIA在1月份的STEO中指出,特别是,新冠病毒的奥密克戎变种引发了关于全球能源消费的问题。
EIA补充道，除了宏观经济的不确定性外，冬季天气和消费者能源需求的不确定性也为能源消费带来了潜在的后果。
EIA继续道，预测中的供应不确定性源于欧佩克+生产决策的不确定性以及美国油气生产商增加钻探活动的速度。
撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶84.12美元。
郝芬 译自 钻机地带
原文如下：
EIA Raises Oil Price Forecast for 2022
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Brent spot average price forecast for 2022, its January short term energy outlook (STEO) has revealed.
The organization now sees Brent spot prices averaging $74.95 per barrel this year, which marks a $4.90 increase on its previous 2022 projection of $70.05, which was made in the EIA’s December STEO.
Looking ahead to 2023 for the first time, the latest STEO forecasts that average Brent spot prices will drop to $67.50 per barrel next year. Brent spot prices averaged $70.89 per barrel in 2021, the EIA’s January STEO highlighted.
In its latest STEO, the EIA projects that global oil inventories will increase at a rate of 500,000 barrels per day in 2022 and 600,000 barrels per day in 2023. The EIA estimates that global liquid fuels inventories fell by an average of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2021. These were said to have grown by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2020.
The organization expects global liquid fuels consumption will grow by 3.6 million barrels per day in 2022 and by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023. OPEC crude oil production is expected to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day to average 28.8 million barrels per day in 2022 and by a further 100,000 barrels per day in 2023 to average 28.9 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil production is expected to average 11.8 million barrels per day this year before rising to a new record of 12.4 million barrels per day in 2023. The U.S. was shown to have averaged 11.2 million barrels per day in 2021. Its current record of 12.3 million barrels per day was set in 2019.
The EIA notes that its latest STEO continues to reflect heightened levels of uncertainty as a result of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.
“Notably, the Omicron variant of Covid-19 raises questions about global energy consumption,” the EIA noted in its January STEO.
“In addition to macroeconomic uncertainties, uncertainty about winter weather and consumer energy demand also present a wide range of potential outcomes for energy consumption,” the EIA added.
“Supply uncertainty in the forecast stems from uncertainty about OPEC+ production decisions and the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas producers will increase drilling,” the EIA continued.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent stood at $84.12 per barrel.
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