• 短期内北海地区对油气运营商来说仍然是一个不错的市场
• 伍德麦肯兹：英国北海油气运营商今年将看到接近纪录的现金保证金和利润
• 在最近的两次经济衰退期间，油气运营商大幅削减成本，而当前强劲的商品价格将提高油气运营商的现金流
据美国油价网2022年1月10日报道，全球著名能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹表示，由于英国北海油气运营商将在一个“机不可失”的监管环境下在油气价格高企之际寻求延长油田的开采寿命，他们今年将看到接近历史最高水平的现金保证金和利润。
尽管油田开发审批和英国净零目标方面的长期不确定性仍对石油天然气行业构成巨大威胁，但短期来看，北海对油气运营商来说仍然是一个不错的市场。
伍德麦肯兹表示：“2022年的产量增长和接近历史最高水平的现金流将加强资产负债表，让经济学家感到高兴。”
根据天空新闻频道援引的伍德麦肯兹的分析，英国北海的油气运营商预计在2021年获得了170亿美元的现金流，并将在2022年获得180亿美元的现金流。
伍德麦肯兹表示，在最近的两次经济衰退期间，北海油气运营商大幅削减了成本，加上当前强劲的大宗商品价格，将使油气运营商的现金流增长到2008年金融危机之前的水平。
尽管短期内会产生大量现金流，但英国北海地区的油气运营商面临着未来油气田开发计划和纳税义务的不确定性，因为英国有望在2050年前实现净零碳排放经济，并大幅减少北海油气业务的碳排放。
伍德麦肯兹表示，由于这种不确定性，英国政府可能在2022年批准至多12个油气项目，油气运营商可能将今年视为提出新开发计划的“机不可失”时刻的最后一个机会窗口。
英国北海油气运营商接近历史最高水平的现金流是在英国努力寻找能源危机解决方案之时出现，飙升的能源价格已经造成了一些人所说的“生活成本危机”。
“英国政府不愿意关闭这个为英国提供73%能源和满足47%天然气需求的油气行业。 但有关部门最近提议，新项目的开发必须通过所谓的净零兼容性测试。”
英国政府去年12月召开咨询会议，寻求为油气行业建立一个新的气候兼容性检查站，并表示，如果通过净零测试，英国仍将允许在北海开发新的油气田。
OGUK供应链和运营总监Katy Heidenreich表示：“至关重要的是，这一检查站应是健全的，并确保未来几轮许可证出售招标与英国的气候变化雄心兼容，同时保持投资者对英国大陆架的信心。”
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
North Sea Oil Operators Set For Near Record Cash Flows
· The North Sea still looks pretty good for oil and gas operators in the short term
· WoodMac: UK North Sea operators will see near-record cash margins and profits this year
· Massive cost cuts during the two most recent downturns and the current strong commodity prices will boost operators’ cash flow generation
UK North Sea operators will see near-record cash margins and profits this year as they will look to extend field lives amid high oil and gas prices in a “now or never” regulatory environment, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie says.
The North Sea still looks pretty good for oil and gas operators in the short term, although long-term uncertainties over field development approvals and the UK’s net-zero goals continue to loom large over the industry.
“Production growth and near record cash flows in 2022 will strengthen balance sheets and keep economists happy,” Wood Mackenzie said.
Operators in the UK North Sea are expected to have booked $17 billion in cash flows in 2021 and to book another $18 billion cash flows in 2022, per WoodMac’s analysis cited by Sky News.
The massive cost cuts during the two most recent downturns and the current strong commodity prices will boost operators’ cash flow generation to the levels last seen before the 2008 crisis, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Despite the short-term windfall in cash flow generation, operators in the UK North Sea face uncertainties about future field development plans and tax liabilities as the UK looks to become a net-zero economy by 2050 and to significantly reduce the carbon emissions of North Sea oil and gas operations.
Due to this uncertainty, as much as 12 oil and gas projects could be sanctioned by the UK government in 2022 as operators could see this year as the last window of opportunity in a “now or never” moment to propose new developments, WoodMac says.
The UK government is not willing to shut down the sector that provides 73 percent of the UK’s energy and meets 47 percent of its natural gas demand. But authorities have recently proposed that new project developments pass a so-called net-zero compatibility test.
The UK will still allow the development of new oil and gas oilfields in the North Sea if they pass a net-zero test, the government said last month as it opened a consultation seeking input on a new climate compatibility checkpoint for the oil and gas industry.
“It is vital that this checkpoint is robust and ensures that future licensing rounds are compatible with the UK’s climate change ambitions while maintaining investor confidence in the UK Continental Shelf,” said Katy Heidenreich, Supply Chain & Operations Director at OGUK.
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