据1月13日The Punch报道，国际石油基准布伦特原油周三攀升至每桶84美元以上，原因是供应紧张，市场缓解了对奥密克戎病毒对需求潜在影响的担忧。
截至尼日利亚时间周三晚7点，布伦特原油价格上涨1.42美元，至每桶85.14美元。OANDA亚太高级市场分析师Jeffrey Halley在一份报告中表示，本季度布伦特油价可能会接近100美元/桶。
他表示，“假设经济不会急剧放缓，那么奥密克戎的影响微乎其微，而且欧佩克+提高产量能力明显有限，我认为布伦特原油没有理由不能在第一季度达到每桶100美元，可能更早就能达到这一水平。不过“话虽如此，我承认未来会有很多不同结果，最大的风险是疫情在亚洲的影响”。
Rigzone周二报告称，美国能源信息署引其1月份短期能源展望，上调了布伦特2022年现货平均价格预测。该组织目前预计，今年布伦特原油现货价格平均为每桶74.95美元，比EIA去年12月在STEO上预测的每桶70.05美元高出4.9美元。
最新STEO预测，展望2023年，布伦特原油平均现货价格2023年将首次跌至每桶67.50美元。EIA 1月份STEO报告指出，2021年布伦特原油现货均价为每桶70.89美元。
该组织预计，到2022年，全球液体燃料消费量将每天增加360万桶，到2023年将增加180万桶。预计到2022年，欧佩克原油产量将增加250万桶/天，达到日均2880万桶，到2023年将再增加10万桶/天，达到日均2890万桶。
EIA指出，其最新STEO反映出，由于当前疫情影响，油价走势的不确定性增加。
王佳晶 摘译自 The Punch
原文如下：
Oil price surges above $85 amid Omicron impact
The international oil benchmark, Brent crude, climbed above $84 per barrel on Wednesday on tight supply and easing concerns about the potential impact of Omicron coronavirus variant on demand.
Brent, against which Nigeria’s crude oil is priced, rose by $1.42 to $85.14 per barrel as of 7.00pm Nigerian time on Wednesday.
The Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA, Jeffrey Halley, said in a note that Bent could move towards $100 per barrel this quarter.
He said, “Assuming the economic doesn’t suffer a sharp slowdown, that omicron actually becomes omi-gone, and with OPEC+’s ability to raise production clearly limited, I see no reason why Brent crude cannot move towards $100.00 in Q1, possibly sooner.
“Having said that, I acknowledge there are plenty of variable outcomes in the previous sentence, the biggest threat being omicron in Asia.”
Rigzone reported on Tuesday that the US Energy Information Administration raised its Brent spot average price forecast for 2022, citing its January short-term energy outlook has revealed.
The organisation now sees Brent spot prices averaging $74.95 per barrel this year, which marks a $4.90 increase on its previous 2022 projection of $70.05, which was made in the EIA’s December STEO.
Looking ahead to 2023 for the first time, the latest STEO forecasts that average Brent spot prices will drop to $67.50 per barrel next year. Brent spot prices averaged $70.89 per barrel in 2021, the EIA’s January STEO highlighted.
The organisation expects global liquid fuels consumption will grow by 3.6 million barrels per day in 2022 and by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023. OPEC crude oil production is expected to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day to average 28.8 million barrels per day in 2022 and by a further 100,000 barrels per day in 2023 to average 28.9 million barrels per day.
The EIA notes that its latest STEO continues to reflect heightened levels of uncertainty as a result of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.
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