据1月13日RT报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)表示，2023年美国原油产量将超过疫情前水平，原因是页岩油产量飙升，油价上涨推动生产商钻更多油井，以抵消产量下降的影响。
EIA在1月份的短期能源展望(STEO)中表示，2023年美国原油平均日产量将达到1240万桶，首次公布了对2023年的预测。
美国政府表示，由于2月得克萨斯严寒期和8月、9月艾达飓风期间因天气造成的停产，2021年美国平均石油产量下降了10万桶/天，至平均1120万桶/天。
2021年产量为110万桶/天，低于2019年创纪录的1230万桶/天，因为在疫情爆发之前，运营商们就已经在被迫削减产量，严格控制资本支出，并在考虑增产之前奖励股东。
今年，美国原油年均产量预计将增长至1180万桶/天。EIA预测，从2021年第四季度到2023年，美国原油产量将连续9个季度增长。
美国政府指：“产量增长反映了油价上涨，我们预计油价将使上游开发活动持续增加，预计增速将超过下降速度”。
尽管2023年年均原油产量预计将创纪录，但EIA表示，预测中任何一个月的产量都不会超过2019年11月创下的1297万桶/天月度纪录。
EIA预测，与需求增长相比，美国原油产量不断上升将加剧全球原油供应过剩。代理署长Steve Nalley在一份声明中表示，“我们预计今年全球石油产品需求将恢复并超过疫情前水平，但原油产量将以更快速度增长。随着原油产量增加，库存将开始补充，并在短期内帮助推低汽油、航空燃油和其他产品价格”。
今年，美国石油和液体燃料消费量将略高于2019年水平，将达到2060万桶/天，这主要得益于汽油消费量增加。到2023年，美国石油消费量将达到2090万桶/天，主要受HGL石化产品产量增长推动。
今年石油市场一个不利因素可能是石油供应增长速度快于预期需求的增长，这在很大程度上仍取决于疫情发展态势以及引发的潜在限制。
所有分析人士都预计，欧佩克+和非欧佩克+产油国(主要是美国)今年的石油供应将会增加。美国石油产量将增长多少，将取决于石油生产商如何应对每桶80美元的油价，以及它们在当前高油价下是否会继续坚持支出限制。
成本压力和熟练劳动力短缺可能会对增长构成压力，而上市页岩油公司可能会继续优先考虑股东回报，以追求创纪录产量增长。然而，私人生产商没有投资者压力，因此可能会引领美国页岩气市场增长。
美国政府对石油行业的政策，也可能对石油公司如何对待任何额外增产要求产生影响。美国石油行业对美国政府继续与欧佩克+合作感到失望，同时美国政府试图对更多的国内生产进行限制和征税。而不是要求欧佩克+和沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、俄罗斯等国增加石油产量。要知道，美国石油产量在2020年因需求和油价暴跌而减少。
不过，市场力量和油价将是今年美国石油公司产量和股东回报计划的关键驱动因素。如果页岩资源再次过快地提高产量，油价将再次面临下行压力，可能会引发欧佩克+实施对策。
王佳晶 摘译自 RT
原文如下：
US oil output to set new record
US crude oil production is set to exceed pre-pandemic levels next year, driven by a jump in shale output as higher prices push producers to drill more wells to offset declining rates, the Energy Information Administration says.
America’s crude oil production is set to average 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), in which it revealed its first estimates for 2023.
The annual average US oil production fell in 2021 by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to average 11.2 million bpd due to weather-related shut-ins during the Texas Freeze in February and Hurricane Ida in August and September, the administration said.
Output last year was 1.1 million bpd below the annual record of 12.3 million bpd from 2019, just before Covid-19 struck and forced operators to curtail production, keep a tight rein on capital expenditures, and reward shareholders before thinking of growing production.
This year, the annual average US crude oil production is set to grow to 11.8 million bpd. Next year, the record annual average from 2019 will be exceeded, the EIA says, expecting 12.4 million bpd in 2023.
EIA forecasts US crude oil production will increase for nine consecutive quarters, from the fourth quarter of 2021 through 2023.
“Production growth reflects oil prices that we expect will be sufficient to lead to continued increases in upstream development activity, which we forecast will proceed at a pace that will more than offset decline rates,” the administration noted.
Despite the forecast of record annual average crude oil production in 2023, the EIA does not expect that production in any month in the forecast will surpass the monthly record of 12.97 million bpd set in November 2019.
Rising US crude oil production will add to the global oversupply compared to demand growth, the EIA predicts.
“We expect global demand for petroleum products to return to and surpass pre-pandemic levels this year, but crude oil production grows at a faster rate in our forecasts,” EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley said in a statement.
“We expect that as crude oil production increases, inventories will begin to replenish and help push prices lower for gasoline, jet fuel, and other products in the short term,” Nalley added.
This year, America’s consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will slightly surpass 2019 levels and will average 20.6 million bpd, led by higher gasoline consumption. In 2023, US consumption will reach 20.9 million bpd, led by growth in hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs).
One of the bearish factors for the oil market this year could be the faster oil supply growth compared to the expected demand increase, which still hinges very much on Covid-19 developments and potential new waves and restrictions.
All analysts expect growing supply from both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) and the non-OPEC+ producers, mostly the United States, this year. Just how much US production will grow will depend on how producers react to $80 oil prices and whether they will continue to stick to spending restraint at these high prices.
Cost pressures and a shortage of skilled labor could weigh on growth, while public shale firms will likely continue to prioritize shareholder returns to chase record production growth. Private producers, however, do not have investor pressure to respond to and could lead the growth in the US shale patch.
The Biden Administration’s policies toward the oil industry could also play a part in how companies will treat any additional calls to grow production. The US oil sector is frustrated with the Administration’s continued engagement with OPEC+ while it looks to restrict and tax more domestic production. Instead of asking OPEC+ and counties like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia to pump more oil, the Administration should have laid the foundations for a faster recovery of US oil output, which producers curtailed in 2020 in response to the crash in demand and oil prices, executives said last month.
Still, market forces and oil prices will be the key driver of production and shareholder return plans of US oil companies this year. If the shale patch gets ahead of itself again and raises production too fast, oil prices will come under renewed downward pressure, potentially triggering a response from OPEC+.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
