•随着闲置产能继续减少，储备替代率下降，世界可能很快就会面临严重的石油供应短缺
•2021年，新的油气矿藏发现数量可能达到75年来的最低水平，这凸显出未来生产面临的一个重大问题
•ESG（环境、社会和治理）投资热潮和激进投资者将资金从石油行业撤出，这可能会增加能源转型的难度和成本
据油价网1月12日消息，欧洲天然气危机几个月来一直占据着新闻头条，这是有原因的——欧洲大陆仍在努力确保足够的能源满足其冬季需求。但世界可能会面临更严重的危机，那就是石油危机。所有人都可以看到这些迹象:欧佩克的闲置产能正在减少，新发现的油气资源处于历史低点，由于ESG投资的兴起，银行越来越不愿意参与油气行业。与此同时，大型石油公司在专注于发展低碳业务的同时，也在限制产量。
产能危机?
国际能源署(IEA)在其 2021 年 10 月的石油市场报告中表示：“全球闲置产能的萎缩凸显了增加投资以满足未来需求的必要性。”随着欧佩克在其回归正常协议下提高产量，其闲置产能将大幅下降，到今年第四季度可能仅达到400万桶/天。这将比2021年初的900万桶/天下降一半以上。
闲置产能是衡量石油行业生产灵活性的一个重要指标。IEA将其定义为可以在 90 天内启动并持续较长时间的生产。美国能源部将闲置产能定义为可以在30天内开采并持续90天的产能。根据美国能源情报署(EIA)的数据，到今年年底，欧佩克的闲置产能可能降至511万桶/天。
IEA似乎并不确定自己想要什么——是加大对石油的投资，还是加大对可再生能源的投资。它在去年的不同场合呼吁这两项。但从油价走势来看，尽管欧佩克计划转向低碳能源，但其不断萎缩的闲置产能确实令人担忧。
进一步加剧这种担忧的是，欧佩克+的一些成员国正接近其闲置产能的极限，俄罗斯就是其中之一。据报道，世界上最大的石油生产国之一发现，当其他欧佩克+成员国都在应对同样的问题时，石油产量很难恢复到疫情前的水平。这意味着，即使需求继续以目前的稳定速度增长，供应可能也赶不上。
迫切需要:新油藏
挪威能源咨询公司在去年12月的一份报告中表示，新发现的油气资源可能已降至75年来的最低水平。去年新发现的总资源约为47亿桶油当量，低于疫情第一年发现的125亿桶油当量。
与此同时，在股东、维权人士和政府的压力下，欧洲石油巨头正有意减少石油产量，以符合向可再生能源发展的战略。所以，一方面，我们花在新供应上的钱减少了，另一方面，我们有意减少了现有的供应。
低发现水平意味着储量替代率也下降了，油气行业的低储量替代率对未来的供应来说是个坏消息。沙特阿拉伯去年警告称，对新石油生产的投资不足可能会导致能源危机，但由于大家都预计沙特阿拉伯会说这样的话，所以这一警告并没有得到多少关注。即使是这样，提高石油新发现的速度也不像以前那么容易了。
银行热衷于ESG投资
ESG投资者的兴起在金融业引起了不小的轰动。回报仍然是一个优先事项，但它不再是唯一的最终优先事项。如今，投资者想要知道他们的钱被以负责任的方式使用，以造福地球。这意味着他们越来越不愿意看到这些钱流向石油行业。
由于这一趋势，银行和资产管理公司正在重新考虑自己的业务战略。资产管理公司正要求客户做出减排承诺，否则将放弃这些客户。银行拒绝向石油业放贷，并威胁要放弃那些产生大量二氧化碳排放的客户。
不仅仅是来自股东的压力在引导银行的行动。监管机构也在加大对银行的压力，要求根据气候变化情景进行新的风险评估，并相应收紧资本金要求。为避免受到监管规定的束缚，银行正在减少对石油和天然气行业的敞口。
与此同时，石油需求似乎一如既往地健康，油价预测显示出强劲的上行潜力。那些以能源转型为理由的看跌石油的人似乎忘记了一点，那就是这需要的时间远不止几年。
正如油价信息服务公司的汤姆·克洛扎在为CNN撰写的一篇评论文章中所写的那样，这也将是艰难的。
“一旦我们真正开始远离化石燃料，这代价将是昂贵和痛苦的。否认这些代价就像否认气候变化一样虚伪，”克洛扎写道。这一论点以及我们在可观测的未来将继续需要大量石油都是不争的事实。
裘寅 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Can The World Avoid A Global Oil Supply Crunch?
The world may soon face a major oil supply shortage as spare capacity continues to dwindle and reserve replacement rates fall
The number of new oil and gas discoveries may have hit a 75-year low in 2021, highlighting a major issue for future production
The ESG investing craze and activist investors have driven money away from the oil industry, which may add to the pain and cost of the energy transition
The European gas crunch has been hogging headlines for months now, and with good reason - the continent is still struggling to secure enough energy for its winter needs. But there may be a worse crunch looming over the world, and that would be an oil crunch. The signs are there for everyone to see should they bother to look: OPEC’s spare capacity is dwindling, new discoveries are at historic lows, and banks are growing increasingly reluctant to engage with the oil and gas industry because of the rise of ESG investing. Meanwhile, supermajors are curbing their output as they focus on growing their low-carbon business.
A capacity crisis?
“Shrinking global spare capacity underscores the need for increased investments to meet demand further down the road,” the International Energy Agency said in its October 2021 Oil Market Report, after noting that as OPEC ramped up production under its return-to-normal deal, its spare production capacity will fall considerably, potentially reaching just 4 million bpd by the fourth quarter of this year. That would be down by more than half from 9 million bpd at the start of 2021.
Spare capacity is an important indicator of production flexibility in the oil world. The IEA defines it as production that can be launched within 90 days and sustained over an extended period of time. The U.S. Department of Energy defines spare capacity as production that can be tapped within 30 days and sustained for 90 days. According to the EIA, OPEC’s spare capacity could fall to 5.11 million bpd by the end of this year.
The IEA does not seem to be sure what it wants - more investments in oil or more investments in renewable energy. It called for both on different occasions last year. But based on oil price developments, it seems the shrinking spare capacity of the world’s oil cartel is indeed a cause for concern despite the planned shift to low-carbon energy.
What fuels this concern even further is that some members of the extended cartel OPEC+ are nearing the limit of their spare capacity, and Russia is among them. One of the world’s top producers, according to reports, is finding it difficult to return production to pre-pandemic levels at a time when other OPEC+ members are dealing with the same problem. This means that even if demand continues to grow at the current solid rate, supply may not be as quick to catch up.
Wanted: new oil discoveries
New oil and gas discoveries may have hit their lowest level in 75 years, Norwegian energy consultancy said in a December report. Total newly discovered resources last year stood at some 4.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent, which was down from 12.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered during the first pandemic year.
At the same time, European supermajors are deliberately reducing their oil production in line with the strategy to move toward renewable energy under pressure from shareholders, activists, and governments. So, on the one hand, we have less money being spent on new supply and on the other, we have a deliberate reduction in existing supply.
The low level of discoveries means that reserve replacement rates have fallen, too, and low reserve replacement rates in the oil and gas industry are bad news for future supply. Saudi Arabia warned last year that underinvestment in new oil production could lead to an energy crisis, but since everyone expects Saudi Arabia to say something like that, not a lot of attention was paid to the warning. And even if it was, boosting the rate of new oil discoveries is not as easy as it once was.
Banks on an ESG rampage
The rise of the ESG investor has made quite a splash in the financial industry. Returns are still a priority, but it is no longer the single ultimate priority. These days, investors want to know that their money is being used in a responsible way, for the good of the planet. And this means that they are increasingly reluctant to see this money going to the oil industry.
Because of this trend, banks and asset managers are rethinking their own business strategies.
Asset managers are requiring their clients to make emission reduction commitments, threatening to drop them otherwise. Banks are refusing to lend to the oil industry and also threatening to drop clients that generate a lot of carbon dioxide emissions.
It isn’t just pressure from shareholders that is guiding lenders’ hands. Regulators are also turning up the heat on banks, requiring new risk assessments based on climate change scenarios and tightening capital requirements accordingly. To avoid being hamstrung by regulations, lenders are cutting their exposure to the apocalypse-bringing oil and gas industry.
Meanwhile, demand for oil appears to be as healthy as ever, and oil price forecasts are pointing to a solid upward potential. The thing that oil bears who cite the energy transition as the reason for their bearishness seem to be forgetting is that it will take a lot more than a couple of years.
It will also be tough, as Oil Price Information Service’s Tom Cloza wrote in an opinion piece for CNN.
“once we really start moving away from fossil fuels, it will be expensive and painful. To deny that expense is as disingenuous as denying climate change,” Cloza wrote. To argue with this and with the fact that we will continue needing millions upon millions of barrels of oil for the observable future would be a waste of time.
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