据今日油价网站1月22日消息 世界第三大石油生产国俄罗斯在欧佩克+生产协议上的态度一直是个未知数，该协议限制参与者的石油产量，以支持更高的价格。在新冠疫情爆发后，莫斯科与沙特阿拉伯就生产配额问题展开了争论，这是由于原油价格的暴跌，原油价格首次跌入负向所致。北美基准的西德克萨斯中质原油在复苏前跌至每桶负37.63美元，布伦特原油没有进入国际基准的负区间，而是跌至每桶不到15美元的盘中低点。
在此期间，莫斯科、利雅得和其他欧佩克+签署国终于能够就产量配额达成一致。随着欧佩克逐渐扩大在第19次部长级会议上确认的协议中规定的生产配额，关于全球石油供应将扩大多少以及这将如何影响原油价格的猜测相当多。
猜测的一个关键点是，俄罗斯是否能够按照其欧佩克+配额的计划和允许增长其原油产量，并推测世界第三大石油生产国正在或接近产能。根据能源部的说法，2021年12月，俄罗斯每天平均开采1090.3万桶原油和凝析油，这一数字比2021年11月的1090.6万桶略低，但比去年同期高出8.4%。
政府数据显示，2021年间的全年油气凝析油产量平均为1050万桶，比上年同期高出2%以上。预计俄罗斯的原油产量将在2022年进一步扩大。能源部预测，预计每日平均原油产量将攀升至1084万-1105万桶，比2021年增加3%-5%。
尽管担心俄罗斯石油行业达到该产能，但副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克在 2021年10月声称有足够的空间扩大原油产量。诺瓦克是克里姆林宫与欧佩克的主要谈判代表，他声称俄罗斯拥有足够的闲置产能，可以将产量提高到每天超过1100万桶。
为了支持这一说法，副总理引用了早先的生产记录，即在新冠疫情迫使运营关闭之前，俄罗斯在2020年2月产量多达1140万桶/日。尽管一些分析师认为这无法实现，但行业咨询公司雷斯塔能源在2021年8月的新闻稿中预测，2022年7月俄罗斯的石油产量将创下新纪录。雷斯塔透露，这个世界第三大石油生产商将在该月生产1160万桶/日的石油，如果实现这一目标，与2021年同月相比将显着增长11%。该咨询公司继续预测，世界第三最大石油生产国的产量将继续增长，到2023年中期达到1220万桶/日的峰值。
王磊 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Russia’s Oil Output Could Peak In 2023
Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, has long been an unknown when it comes to the OPEC+ production agreement which caps the petroleum output of participants to support higher prices. It was Moscow’s spat with Saudi Arabia over production quotas in early 2020 which, combined with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, caused crude oil prices to plunge into negative territory for the first time ever. The North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate plunged to minus $37.63 per barrel before recovering, while Brent did not enter negative territory the international benchmark, plunged to an intraday low of less than $15 per barrel. During that time Moscow, Riyadh and other OPEC+ signatories were finally able to agree on production quotas. However, Moscow’s economic ambitions remain a threat to the agreement’s firmness, particularly with Washington threatening further sanctions. With OPEC gradually expanding production quotas set out in the agreement confirmed at the 19th ministerial meeting, there is considerable speculation as to how much global petroleum supply will expand and how that will affect crude oil prices. A key point of conjecture is whether Russia can grow its crude oil output as planned and allowed by its OPEC+ quota, with it speculated that the world’s third-largest oil producer is operating at or near capacity. For December 2021 Russia, according to the Ministry of Energy, pumped an average of 10.903 million barrels of crude oil and gas condensate daily. That number was marginally lower than the 10.906 million barrels produced per day for November 2021 but an impressive 8.4% higher compared to the same period a year earlier.
Government data shows that total annual oil and gas condensate production during 2021 averaged 10.5 million barrels per day, which is over 2% higher than a year earlier. It is anticipated that Russia’s crude oil output will expand further during 2022. The energy ministry predicts that forecast average annual daily crude oil output will climb to between 10.84 million and 11.05 million barrels, which is a 3% to 5% increase over 2021.
Despite concerns that Russia’s petroleum industry reaching production capacity Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, in October 2021, claimed there is ample room to expand crude oil output. Novak, who is the Kremlin’s key negotiator with OPEC, claimed Russia possesses sufficient spare capacity to ramp up production to over 11 million barrels per day. To support this assertion the deputy prime minister cited earlier production records where Russia was pumping up to 11.4 million barrels daily, in February 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit forcing operational shut-ins. While some analysts believe this is not achievable, industry consultancy Rystad Energy, in an August 2021 press release, predicted that Russia’s petroleum production during July 2022 will hit a new record. Rystad is tipping that the world’s third-largest oil producer will pump 11.6 million barrels per day during that month which, if achieved, represents a notable 11% increase compared to the same month in 2021. The consultancy went on to forecast that the world’s third-largest oil producer’s output will continue growing, peaking at 12.2 million barrels per day by mid-2023.
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