据伍德麦肯兹1月20日报道，能源危机、金属超级周期、转型成本挑战、更高的投资和100美元/桶价格的预期，在经历了一年的戏剧性复苏之后，2022年能源和自然资源方面发展将如何？这里有五个主题，以及相关的风险。
一是能源危机有解决办法吗？
今年（北半球）冬天，欧洲和亚洲的天然气和电力价格可谓“众望所归”。
对于天然气来说，完美的风暴导致了自去年第三季度以来的创纪录运行。欧洲电力市场也受到了类似事件的冲击，高涨的天然气价格加剧了因产能闲置、发电厂可用性受限、低水电以及向可再生能源转变，导致了紧张情绪。一个糟糕的冬天将推动天然气和电力价格在已经接近历史水平的情况下，进一步走高。
价格将在春季回落，但天然气市场在结构上比疫情爆发之前更紧张。受批准的项目减少，意味着从2022年到2025年，每年新增的液化天然气供应量平均仅为120万吨，不到过去四年的一半。预计欧洲和亚洲液化天然气价格将稳定在2015年至2020年期间的平均价格两倍以上，直到2026年新的供应量投入使用。
欧洲的电力价格也将继续高于危机爆发前，问题的根源在于，随着时断时续的可再生能源获得市场份额，而灵活的天然气和燃煤电厂却被挤出市场，灵活性受到了挤压。世界各地的其他市场也面临着同样的挑战，而答案就在于一系列灵活的技术，包括电池存储。
风险是什么？需求的破坏以及天然气和电力的高价格阻碍了经济的复苏，可承受性成为一个主要的政治问题。人们对“将天然气和电力作为可靠、稳定和可负担的能源来源”作为能源转型核心的看法受到了质疑。在天然气价格持续高涨的地区，原料成本向绿氢倾斜，而不是向蓝氢倾斜。
二是金属超级周期遭遇逆风？
尽管面临着新冠肺炎疫情引发政府紧急刺激措施退出的不利影响，但从危机中恢复的强劲经济复苏将在2022年继续。预计全球GDP增速将略低于4%，低于2021年5.5%的亮丽成绩。
复苏的经济，特别是对商品的超常需求已经挤压了供应链，并将能源和金属方面的几乎所有商品价格提升到接近创纪录水平。关键过渡金属，包括铜、铝、镍、锂和钴市场也在着眼于更长远的发展，预计随着低碳基础设施在全球推广，对去碳化的投资将会持续。
转型需求将导致金属市场出现结构性紧缩，并引发对矿山供应的大规模投资，但这种转型需求还需要几年时间。在短期内，市场有趋向于过剩，因此在2022年有反弹势头消失的危险。
有什么风险？奥密克戎的影响发出警示，疫情可以带来经济反复挫折。美联储缩减量化宽松政策，提高利率以对抗通货膨胀(从零到年底高达2%)。关键金属价格的持续高企，减缓了低碳经济的推广。
三是资本纪律会让位于机构性投资吗？
在今天的价格环境下，石油和天然气、金属、铁矿石和煤炭生产者正在产生创纪录的自由现金流。然而，投资者继续要求将现金用于偿还债务或返还给股东。在勘探开发和采矿业，资本支出接近多年来低点。
2022年，投资将从危机低点回升，尽管人们并不期望迅速转向增长。低碳化经营正迅速成为所有行业的优先事项。力拓集团就是一个例子，在2022年，该公司将首次拨款5亿美元（占支出的6%）用于降低运营成本，并计划在2030年前，每年将这一数字翻倍。
对可再生能源机构性投资已经有了强劲上升趋势，预计2022年全球太阳能发电量将增加17%，风能将增加11%。上游石油和天然气支出将增长约9%，突破4000亿美元，增长最初由国家石油公司主导；今年晚些时候，国际石油公司将增加对短周期项目投资，特别是美国二叠纪盆地项目。当然，大石油公司将继续把越来越多的可支配支出用于低碳机会。
2022年，金属和采矿业前景最不乐观。该行业的项目是稀缺的，并购是加强投资机会的必要第一步。但要实现交易，在价格反弹后，买卖价差可能过大。
风险是什么？更高的成本扼杀了可再生能源的投资和增长速度。大型企业、独立企业和私营企业对上游投资持续不足，将市场份额让给了国家石油公司，增加了十年后石油和天然气价格波动的可能性。中国巩固了其在关键过渡金属供应链上的主导地位。
四是成本上升能否阻挡能源破坏者的步伐？
COP26的成功，特别是第6条和各种净零承诺，为必要的政策支持和投资激励铺平了道路。在美国，这包括美国对碳捕集与封存的45Q税收减免（间接地帮助了蓝氢发展）和有利于绿氢项目排放相关支持。飙升的欧盟排放交易计划价格，现在超过100美元/吨，这也是另一个促进因素。
在监测了200种处于不同发展阶段的新兴技术后，最成熟的技术，包括太阳能、陆上和海上风能，已经能够吸引大笔资金来扩大规模。电动汽车（全球销量在2021年翻了一番之后，预计将增长31%，达到850万辆）、储能（包括电动汽车电池）和电网终端（包括最重要的电动汽车充电基础设施）仍有商业化的挑战，但正逐渐接近主流。
其他一些不太成熟的技术，对实现净零排放目标也很关键。在那些将成为2022年资本市场焦点的项目中，包括氢气（项目管道在2021年翻了一番）和CCS。
风险是什么？投入成本和工资的上涨、供应链的挑战和物流阻碍了一系列低碳技术的推广和发展。电解器制造能力已经在快速提升，但却难以跟上氢气的指数式增长。
五是油价会上升到100美元/桶以上吗？
至少在2022年的任何持续时期都不太可能出现。在欧佩克+的精心管理下，预期市场在2022年将再次恢复平衡。到第三季度，需求增加450万桶/天，回到疫情爆发前1亿桶/天的水平，而供应增加480万桶/天，大约一半来自欧佩克+。隐含库存显示2022年第一季度出现过剩，预计不会出现供应短缺。预测布伦特平均为70美元/桶，略低于2021年。
风险是什么？由于新冠肺炎疫情及其变异病毒，我们已经将2022年的需求削减了近10万桶/天。欧佩克预计地缘政治因素不会在2022年解除，但多达100万桶/天的原油可能在几个月内重返市场。但地缘政治因素可能会给市场带来冲击。
王佳晶 摘译自 伍德麦肯兹
原文如下：
Big themes in 2022 for energy and natural resources
The energy crisis, the metals supercycle, transition cost challenges, higher investment and the chances of US$100/bbl oil
After a year of dramatic recovery, what will shape the world of energy and natural resources in 2022? Here are five themes, and associated risks.
1. Is there a fix for the energy crisis?
Gas and power prices in Europe and Asia are in the lap of the gods this (northern hemisphere) winter.
For gas, the perfect storm has led to a record run since Q3. Power markets in Europe have been hit by a similar chain of events – high gas prices added to system tightness caused by capacity retirements, constrained plant availability, low hydro and the shifting mix towards renewables. A bad winter will push gas and power prices – already near record levels – higher still.
Prices will fall back in the spring, but the gas market is structurally tighter than before the pandemic. Fewer sanctioned projects mean new LNG supply will average just 12 MT a year from 2022 to 2025, less than half that of the last four years. We expect LNG prices in Europe and Asia to settle at more than double the average for prevailing prices between 2015 and 2020 until new supply comes onstream in 2026.
European power prices, too, will remain higher than pre-crisis. The root problem is a flexibility crunch as intermittent renewables gain market share while flexible gas and coal plant are squeezed out of the mix. Other markets around the world face the same challenge, and the answer lies in a range of flexible technologies including battery storage.
The risks? Demand destruction and high prices for gas and power hinders the economic recovery and affordability becomes a major political issue. The perception of gas and power as reliable, stable and affordable sources of energy central to the energy transition comes into question. Feedstock costs tilt the field in favour of green hydrogen over blue in regions with persistent high gas prices.
2. Headwinds for the metals supercycle?
The strong economic recovery from the crisis continues in 2022 – despite a headwind from the withdrawal of pandemic-induced, emergency government stimulus. We expect global GDP growth of just under 4%, below 2021’s stellar 5.5%.
The resurgent economy – specifically, the extraordinary demand for goods – has squeezed supply chains and lifted almost all commodity prices in energy and metals to near-record levels. Markets in key transition metals – including copper, aluminium, nickel, lithium and cobalt – are also looking to the longer term, anticipating sustained investment in decarbonisation with a global roll-out of low-carbon infrastructure.
We believe a metals supercycle is coming, just not yet. The transformative transition demand that will lead to structural tightening in metals markets and trigger massive investment in mine supply is some years away. In the short term, we see markets trending to surplus so there’s a danger the steam comes out of the rally in 2022.
The risks? The impact of Omicron is a reminder that Covid-19 can deliver recurring economic setbacks. The Federal Reserve tapers QE with interest rates raised to counter inflation (from zero to as high as 2% by year end). Persistent high prices for key metals slows the roll-out of the low-carbon economy.
3. Will capital discipline give way to organic investment?
Producers across oil and gas, metals, iron ore and coal are generating record free cash flow at today’s prices. Yet investors continue to dictate that cash is used to pay down debt or returned to shareholders. In E&P and mining, capital expenditure is near multi-year lows.
Investment will pick up in 2022 from the lows of the crisis, though we don’t expect a swift pivot to growth. Decarbonising operations is rapidly becoming a priority across all sectors. One example is Rio Tinto, which has indicated a first-time allocation of US$0.5 billion (6% of spend) in 2022 to decarbonise operations and aims to spend double that each year to 2030.
Organic investment in renewables is already on a strong upward trend and we expect solar capacity to increase by 17% globally and wind by 11% in 2022. Upstream oil and gas spend will be up around 9% to break US$400 billion, with the increase led initially by NOCs; later in the year, IOCs will increase investment in short-cycle projects, notably the US Permian. Big Oil, of course, continues to direct an increasing share of its discretionary spend into low-carbon opportunities.
metals and mining look least promising in 2022. The industry’s project hopper is thin, and we think M&A is a necessary first step to strengthen the opportunity set. But for deals to happen, the buyer/seller spread may be too wide after the rally in prices.
The risks? Higher costs stifle the pace of renewables investment and growth. Continued underinvestment in upstream by Majors, Independents and private companies cedes market share to NOCs and increases the chances of oil and gas price volatility later in the decade. China cements its dominance of the supply chains for key transition metals.
4. Could rising costs stall the energy disruptors?
The success of COP26, notably Article 6 and various net zero pledges, paves the way for the necessary policy support and incentives for investment. In the US, these include the US 45Q tax credit for carbon capture and storage (indirectly helpful for blue hydrogen) and emissions-related support that favours green hydrogen. A soaring EU ETS price, now above $100/tCO2, is another fillip.
We monitor 200 emerging technologies at different stages of development. The most mature, including solar, onshore and offshore wind, are already able to attract big capital to scale up. EVs (global sales are expected to be up 31% to 8.5 million after more than doubling in 2021), energy storage (including EV batteries) and grid edge (including the all-important EV charging infrastructure) still have commerciality challenges but are getting closer to mainstream.
Others, less mature, are also critical to meeting net zero goals. Among those that will be the focus of capital markets in 2022, hydrogen (the project pipeline doubled in 2021) and CCS (today’s nascent project pipeline will need to increase 14-fold for a 1.5 °C pathway).
The risks? Rising input costs and wages, supply chain challenges and logistics hamper the roll-out and development of a raft of low-carbon technologies. Electrolyser manufacturing capacity, already ramping up fast, struggles to keep up with hydrogen’s exponential growth.
5. Will oil prices rise above US$100/bbl?
Unlikely, at least for any sustained period in 2022. Under the careful stewardship of OPEC+, the market is back in balance again in 2022 on our forecasts. Demand increases by 4.5 million b/d back to pre-pandemic levels of 100 million b/d by Q3, whereas supply rises by 4.8 million b/d, around half from OPEC+. Implied inventories show a surplus in Q1 2022 – we do not expect a shortage of supply. Our forecast is for Brent to average US$70/bbl, marginally below 2021.
The risks? Coronavirus – we’ve already trimmed 2022 demand by almost 0.1 million b/d due to Covid and its variants. OPEC politics – we don’t expect Iran sanctions to be lifted in 2022 but up to 1 million b/d of crude could return to market within months. Geopolitics – Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan and Belarus/Poland/EU are potential flashpoints that could spook markets.
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