• 由于世界试图从化石燃料转型，运输和能源生产对石油的需求肯定会在某个时候下降。
• 由于其他领域需求的下降，石化行业对石油行业的重要性将越来越大，石化行业有望实现长期增长。
• 石化行业必须解决的一个难题是塑料污染，石油巨头在建设他们的石化未来时将不得不应对这一问题。
据美国油价网报道，由于石油巨头担心可再生能源对化石燃料的替代威胁，加之企业不断受到限制化石燃料生产的压力，石化产品将变得越来越重要。由于石油巨头继续投资石油和天然气项目，它们希望确保自己新的勘探和生产业务能够获得长期回报，而这个问题正变得越来越不确定。 然而，随着全球对石化产品的需求增加，石油巨头能够依然无恙，因为他们知道，如果某些行业的石油需求下降，他们的“黑金”仍有用处。
当我们想到石油时，我们通常把它看作是一种能源，而很少考虑它的其他用途。 但实际上，来自世界各地的大部分石油都用于生产日常用品，如服装、轮胎、数码设备、包装材料、清洁剂和化肥。 2018年，石化原料约占全球石油需求的12%。 这一数字预计在未来几十年将大幅增长，因为专家预计，从现在到2050年，石化行业每年将增加1000万吨的石化产品。
石油巨头正在投资石化项目，尤其是塑料项目，因为他们预计未来几年塑料需求将大幅增长。 国际能源署(IEA)预测，作为仅存的脱碳领域之一，从化石燃料中提取的塑料到2050年前将驱动几乎一半的石油需求。 非营利组织Beyond Plastics的创始人兼总裁朱迪思·恩克认为，“塑料是化石燃料行业的B计划。”
塑料在发达国家是常见的东西，各国政府目前正计划限制某些塑料产品的使用，如一次性塑料。 但随着能源公司投资扩大石化业务，许多公司正将产品瞄准亚洲和非洲市场，他们预计这两个市场的需求将继续增长。 这些塑料目前大部分是在美国和中东生产的。
但许多人非常担心塑料产量的增加。 据估计，只有9%的塑料制品被回收，大多数塑料产品最终被扔进了垃圾填埋场。由于环保组织强调废塑料对自然和野生动物的影响越来越大，世界各地越来越多的受访者表示支持禁止使用一次性塑料。
但现在，美国西弗吉尼亚大学的工程师们认为他们可能找到了解决方案。 这些工程师正与美国能源部进行合作，试图提高一次性塑料的回收率，并将其转化为宝贵的芳烃，用于石油化工产品的生产。
研究人员的目标是使用简单的一步微波催化过程将一次性塑料转化为高价值的苯、甲苯和二甲苯(BTX)，用作石化材料。
这个项目的研究助理Braskem Wang解释说，“塑料升级回收中产生的乙烯和BTX芳烃可以用作再生塑料的原料。”此外，“这将减少对化石燃料衍生的乙烯和传统炼油厂的BTX芳烃的需求，从而减少温室气体排放。”
由于未来几十年持续石油需求的不确定性增加(很大程度上取决于可再生能源的发展)，石油巨头希望确保他们的新投资在需求减少的情况下仍能看到回报。 随着去年疫情限制措施出台，石油需求和价格暴跌，许多能源公司都看到了需求下降对它们可能意味着什么。 通过发展石化产品组合，并将石油转化为其他高需求产品，企业可以确保即使面临不确定性也能保持业务盈利。
尽管研究人员正在努力开发更可持续的石化替代品，如生物基塑料和特殊化学品，但这些产品仍比化石燃料衍生产品昂贵得多。 尽管最近人们大力发展可再生能源，但石化产品仍处于起步阶段，这意味着石油和天然气公司很可能从化石燃料发电能源使用寿命以外的市场缺口中获益。
但并不是所有的政府都赞同石油巨头把重点放在石化上的想法，因为政府正在努力实现国家经济的脱碳。 在比利时的安特卫普，英国石油化工公司英力士因建设大型塑料厂而面临反对。 2019年，英力士的所有者吉姆·拉特克利夫爵士宣布对这个项目投资34亿美元，意图扩大公司在欧洲的石化业务。
这个塑料厂将是欧洲最大的石化投资，英力士预计将在现场创造450个工作岗位，并在相关公司创造2250个工作岗位。 工程计划在今年晚些时候开建，但是一些非政府组织和荷兰的西兰省质疑新的乙烯“裂解装置”是否会导致一次性塑料的产量增加，以及向大气中释放更多的氮气。 这个项目能否顺利进行，将决定未来其他油气公司是否会开发类似的项目。
随着可再生能源行业的发展，一些世界能源巨头可能会被赶下宝座，石油巨头们正将大笔赌注押在石化产品上，以作为石油纯粹作为能源来源的后备。 然而，在这一过程中，许多石油和天然气公司可能会面临来自政府和气候活动人士的强烈反对，这可能会促使一些人寻求创新技术，在不放弃石油的情况下建立低碳实践。
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
Plastic Will Fuel Oil Demand For Years To Come
·As the world attempts to transition away from fossil fuels, demand for oil from transport and energy generation is sure to decrease at some point.
·One sector that will have increasing importance to the oil industry as demand in other areas drops off is petrochemicals, a sector that is expected to see long-term growth.
·A difficulty that must be addressed in this sector is plastic pollution, something that oil giants will have to contend with as they build out their petrochemical futures.
As Big Oil worries about the looming threat of renewable alternatives, with governments and international organizations putting pressure on countries and companies to curb fossil fuel production, petrochemicals will become increasingly important. With oil majors continuing to invest in oil and gas projects, they want to be sure that their new exploration and production operations pay off in the long run, an issue that’s becoming increasingly uncertain. However, as the demand for petrochemicals increases worldwide, energy firms can be safe in the knowledge that if oil demand in some sectors wanes there will still be a use for their ‘black gold’.
When we think about oil, we often think about it as an energy source, giving little consideration to the other ways in which it’s used. But much of the oil from around the world actually goes into producing everyday products such as clothing, tires, digital devices, packaging, detergents, and fertilizers. In 2018, petrochemical feedstock accounted for around 12 percent of global oil demand. This is a figure that is expected to increase substantially over the next few decades, as experts expect 10 million metric tonnes of growth in the petrochemicals industry every year between now and 2050.
Big Oil is investing in petrochemical projects, particularly focusing on plastics, as demand is expected to increase substantially in the coming years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that plastics derived from fossil fuels will drive almost half of oil demand by 2050, as one of the last remaining sectors to decarbonize. Judith Enck, Founder and President of the nonprofit organization Beyond Plastics, believes "Plastics is the Plan B for the fossil fuel industry."
Plastics are commonplace in the developed world, with governments now planning to curb the use of certain products such as single-use plastics. But as energy firms invest in expanding their petrochemicals business, many are aiming their products at the Asian and African markets, where they expect demand to continue increasing. Most of these plastics are currently being produced in the U.S. and the Middle East.
But many are concerned about the increase in the production of plastics. Estimates suggest that only 9 percent of the plastics ever created have been recycled, with most products ending up in landfills. A growing number of people surveyed around the world say they support the banning of single-use plastics as environmental organizations highlight the growing impact of waste plastic on nature and wildlife.
But now, engineers at West Virginia University think they may have the solution. Working alongside the U.S. Department of Energy in a public-private partnership, the engineers are attempting to increase the rate of recycling for single-use plastics and convert them into valuable aromatics used in the production of petrochemicals.
The researchers are aiming to use a simple one-step microwave catalytic process to upcycle single-use plastics into high-value benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) for use as petrochemical materials.
Braskem, Wang, Research Assistant on the project, explains, “the produced ethylene and BTX aromatics from plastic upcycling can be used as feedstocks to re-make plastics.” Further, “That will reduce demand on fossil fuel-derived ethylene and BTX aromatics from conventional petroleum refinery, leading to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions,” he said.
As uncertainty around sustained oil demand over the coming decades grows, with much depending on the development of renewable alternatives, Big Oil wants to make sure their new investments will still see a return even as demand wanes. Many energy firms had a glimpse of what decreased demand might mean for them as the pandemic restrictions of 2020 came into place, sending oil demand and prices plummeting. By developing their petrochemicals portfolio and converting oil into other high-demand products, companies can ensure that even faced with uncertainty they keep their business profitable.
While researchers are working hard to develop more sustainable petrochemical alternatives, such as bio-based plastics and specialty chemicals, these products are still much more expensive than fossil fuel-derived products. Despite a huge recent drive to develop renewable energy alternatives, petrochemical alternative production is still in its infancy, meaning that oil and gas firms are likely to benefit from the gap in the market beyond the lifespan of fossil fuel-generated energy.
But not all governments are on board with Big Oil’s idea to focus on petrochemicals, as they strive for the decarbonization of national economies. In Antwerp, Belgium, British company Ineos is facing opposition over the construction of a giant plastics plant. Owner of Ineos, Sir Jim Ratcliffe, announced a $3.4 billion investment in the plant in 2019, with the intention of expanding the firm’s petrochemicals business in Europe.
The plant would mark the biggest petrochemicals investment in Europe, and Ineos expects it to contribute 450 jobs on-site and 2,250 in associated companies. Construction is planned to begin later this year, but several NGOs and the Dutch province of Zeeland question whether the new ethylene “cracker” will lead to an increase in the production of single-use plastics as well as the release of more nitrogen into the atmosphere. Seeing whether this project goes ahead or not could determine the development of similar projects by other oil and gas companies in the future.
Big Oil is betting big on petrochemicals as a backup for oil being used purely as an energy source, as the growth of the renewable energy sector threatens to dethrone some of the world’s energy giants. However, many oil and gas firms are likely to face strong opposition from governments and climate activists in the process, potentially driving some to look for innovative technologies to establish lower-carbon practices without giving up on oil.
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